GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[osufeth24]

BTW, I don't know why, maybe cause I'm bored, but I feel I need to explain my personal position, since I seem to get ragged on for the data I post.

I was 100% on board with shutting down FL back in March, I don't know if I ever did it here (probably not since politics is prohibited), but I ragged on DeSantis for dragging his feet in shutdowns. We didn't know much about the virus (there is a lot we still don't know), and with all the numbers being thrown out, it was scary.

But, the reason I've shifted is because all those pictures I've been posting. I haven't watched the news once in over 4 months (I mean didn't even know about the whole George Floyd death til several days later, that's how little i've kept up with news, they all have an agenda, both sides of the political spectrum, I hate them all).

I've seen more and more data pour in with no manipulation, just straight numbers that this virus isn't as deadly as they were making it out to be. I mean we've gone from saying it's going to have a 5% mortality rate, to now the CDC saying .25%, that's a pretty big. It's also becoming more obvious if you're healthy and below the age of 50, there's a 95% nothing major is going to happen to you if you get it.

Now, I'm not saying we go back to normal and let's pack WDW 100% and fill the football stadium to overflow again. But it's quite clear form the data that at this moment ,we are NOT having this major spike again (sure some pockets are having an increase), and to shutdown again, will be do way worse things to this country than the virus itself.

The shutdown was for not overwhelming the hospitals. Which 99% weren't, but people have now moved those goalposts to a vaccine.

Btw, just saw an article that in England there's a vaccine starting human trials today, funny that's not all over the news. I hope it works, we'll see. There's already a company, I forget what it was, that if their vaccine works, they said they can have 2 BILLION doses ready by January (with the earliest being October)

Btw, I wear a mask when I go to the grocery store

 

[Christine]

Oh please. Those posts have been around about as much as those who say "open everything back up fully". I don't keep track of who said what, so trying to find the handful of posters who have said that out of the thousands of posts on the dozens of COVID threads would be like finding a needle in a haystack. But there have definitely been posters who have said everyone should just stay in their homes.

Really? All the lockdowns started in the middle of February? Semantics, I know, but you're the one who stressed 4 months.

You got me! For us: March 16 through June 12th. 3 months. We are still mitigating but not as stringent. I will go correct my post because it truly makes all the difference in the world. Yep, now that it's only 3 months, we are just like the Hong Kong and regular flu.

 

[JimMIA]

That comparsion is very interesting, thank you!!

Orange County's positive rate today is 8.3% (with a 5 day average of over 6.5%----2 weeks ago our 5 day average was under 2%---best I can tell from the graph one week early one we were right around 9% )

It is SOOO different county to county, but when it comes to Reopening Florida I assume most people on this Disney oriented board are (at least a little bit) wondering about the Disney area

That said, the only place I see people wearing masks in large numbers is Costco--where they don't give you the choice.

Not sure where you are getting your stats, but the state site shows a positive rate of 5.12% for the most recent week for Orange County, which is way up from the +/-2% of the previous 5-6 weeks.

Daily numbers mean absolutely nothing. First of all, in Orlando you're dealing with small numbers, and also a dump of test results from only one lab can totally skew the daily percentage.

 

[mom2aandj]

The Hong Kong flu killed around 100,000 Americans, yes. But there were ZERO mitigation efforts in place. It was unfettered/unchecked. That was the worst outcome of the Hong Kong flu.

For COVID, we locked down and we also have put in (in most places) pretty strict distancing controls. After 4 months with many mitigations, we are over 100,000 and seeing increases now. Your comparison does not work.

I don’t disagree that Covid is more lethal, but do want to point out that in 1968 the population of the US was only 200 million vs. 328 million today. So presumably the Hong Kong flu would have killed almost 140,000 people if all else held equal (hope I did the math on that correctly!)

 

[ronandannette]

While admittedly I don't read everything about the virus, I've only read about one real mutation and that was the split from the original virus in Wuhan to the mutation that occurred in Europe. Most people on the west coast of the U.S. got the original Wuhan virus while most people on the East Coast got the Europe version which is suspected to be a more virulent strain/mutation.

That is interesting and I’ve never heard it before. In Canada, as best we know, the first identified case was in Vancouver and diagnosed in a traveller returning directly from China. It took off there three weeks before any other region but was relatively well-contained and the death rates were modest. In Quebec and Ontario the earliest results were also linked to travellers arriving from the Middle East via Europe. Although it took a little longer to emerge, the cases in those two provinces have absolutely dwarfed anything else going on nation-wide and fully 95% of all the deaths in Canada to date have occurred there.

Of course there is population density to consider but only a little less than 50% of the country's total population live in those two provinces so it's still very disproportionate. Also interesting to note is there are only 4 truly "international" airports in Canada: Montreal, Toronto, Calgary & Vancouver. While several other cities receive air traffic directly from the US, only the ones I mentioned receive flights directly from any other continent.

 

[cmp3400]

Not sure where you are getting your stats, but the state site shows a positive rate of 5.12% for the most recent week for Orange County, which is way up from the +/-2% of the previous 5-6 weeks.

Daily numbers mean absolutely nothing. First of all, in Orlando you're dealing with small numbers, and also a dump of test results from only one lab can totally skew the daily percentage.

I did the math from the last 5 days, not using the "last week total" from the DOH County info (but I did redo the math 6.42% for the last 5 days--my bad not sure how I messed that up!!)
Here are the last 2 weeks
3.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 3.4% 3.2% 4.2% 5.9% 7.4% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 8.3%

 

[Christine]

I don’t disagree that Covid is more lethal, but do want to point out that in 1968 the population of the US was only 200 million vs. 328 million today. So presumably the Hong Kong flu would have killed almost 140,000 people if all else held equal (hope I did the math on that correctly!)

Yes, population definitely matters. I still think the measurement time for the HK flu is a bit longer. Do you think after 12 months or more of measuring COVID we will be in a similar situation as the HK flu? Look at where we are with numbers since we've been counting in March. We aren't that far from hitting HK flu numbers (adjusted for inflation) in 3-4 months time. We'll probably hit that number by October so 8-9 months total, and that was with quite a few measures put in place to slow it down.

 

[Christine]

That is interesting and I’ve never heard it before. In Canada, as best we know, the first identified case was in Vancouver and diagnosed in a traveller returning directly from China. It took off there three weeks before any other region but was relatively well-contained and the death rates were modest. In Quebec and Ontario the earliest results were also linked to travellers arriving from the Middle East via Europe. Although it took a little longer to emerge, the cases in those two provinces have absolutely dwarfed anything else going on nation-wide and fully 95% of all the deaths in Canada to date have occurred there.

If you're interested, this article discusses it in a lot of detail. You can also probably search around and find something more easy to read!

https://www.cato.org/blog/two-supertypes-coronavirus-east-asian-european

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I just returned from a weekend in Orange Beach, AL. Stopped at the Mississippi rest stop on the way there and the way back. No one wearing masks. Buc-ee's Orange Beach --maybe 10% of customers wearing them. Employees tried, but half of them had them on incorrectly.

Yesterday I went to our local grocery store (Louisiana) for the first time in 3 months. Only a handful of customers were wearing masks. All employees were, though.

People simply do not care to wear the masks. They think it's a political statement now. I wore mine and will continue to do so, especially since I have been out and about and could have picked it up along the way. I don't like it, but I do it. I was finally able to get some disposable ones and they are seriously better than the cotton/reusable ones.

Why should New York get to have all the fun? We want us some covid too!!!

 

[JimMIA]

I did the math from the last 5 days, not using the "last week total" from the DOH County info (but I did redo the math 6.42% for the last 5 days--my bad not sure how I messed that up!!)
Here are the last 2 weeks
3.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 3.4% 3.2% 4.2% 5.9% 7.4% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 8.3%

You can't add weekly percentages because the numbers would vary so much from week to week, and especially from day to day. You would have to add up all the positive results, add up all the numbers of tests, and then divide positives by the total.

 

[cmp3400]

You can't add weekly percentages because the numbers would vary so much from week to week, and especially from day to day. You would have to add up all the positive results, add up all the numbers of tests, and then divide positives by the total.

These are daily percentages

 

[osufeth24]

I hope we can at least all agree this seeing this trend is good, and hope it continues

 

[JimMIA]

These are daily percentages

You can't average percentages.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I hope we can at least all agree this seeing this trend is good, and hope it continues

View attachment 501502

View attachment 501503

I agree with you. The downward trend is good. But critics will say is that is due to NY and we can't count that. Which I will counter now with, either NY counts or it doesn't. If they don't get count in our declining numbers, then they don't get to count in our total cases or total deaths.

And I will say it's not that NY has done better than anybody else. Trust me, I'm happy to see their numbers declining so rapidly. That is great news. But comparing it to CA (for example because I know CA and it's a large state) is comparing apples to oranges. NY went through the virus like the Matterhorn, while CA has done it with bunny hills. CA will never be able to have decreasing numbers the way NY did because we never spiked the way they did.

 

[cmp3400]

You can't average percentages.

Ohhhh, I see what you are saying. So, is the proper thing to do number of positives/total number?

 

[JimMIA]

Ohhhh, I see what you are saying. So, is the proper thing to do number of positives/total number?

Yes.

Example:

• 3 positives, 100 tests = 3%
• 2 positives, 5 tests = 40%
• 3 positives, 10 tests = 30%
• averaging the percentages would be 3%+40%+30%/3 = 24.3%
• Actual % would be 8/115 = 6.9%

 

[71 Truck]

There was never a (United States) government shutdown. Individual jurisdictions, whether they are state or local, decided. In many places people themselves used behavior modification that went beyond what they were asked to do. You are framing this with prejudice. Naturally, you wind up framing any shutdown as a political tool.

First I never said their was a United States Government shutdown. I bracketed the United States to let people who are not from the US this is where I was from.
Yes I know some local and state governments made decisions on what to shut down and what not to shut down.

As far as framing the shutdown as political I never mentioned any political party so I am not sure what the prejudice is. A lot of people in this country were not happy to have their constitutional right taken away by executive order with no recourse.
I am not sure how government officials can make decisions on what business are essential and what are not.
You can go to shop at a big box store with hundreds of people but you cant get your hair cut one on one?
The attitude of, I am your leader, I know what is right for you and my word is law is not a good thing.
This makes a lot of people question their government officials so it naturally becomes political.

 

[Searc]

Florida's positive rate for the most recent week is 4.24%, down slightly from 4.67% the week before.

I was clear in that I was talking about the daily rate.

 

[JimMIA]

I was clear in that I was talking about the daily rate.

Right, but one day's stats are meaningless.

 

[Searc]

I don’t disagree that Covid is more lethal, but do want to point out that in 1968 the population of the US was only 200 million vs. 328 million today. So presumably the Hong Kong flu would have killed almost 140,000 people if all else held equal (hope I did the math on that correctly!)

The US is currently at 118,000+ cases. We'll reach 140,000 easily by the end of July, maybe even June, with a much smaller timeframe.