GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

JimMIA said:
If people insist on only looking at one day, that's a number for them to post -- although you understated it a bit. The actual number is 12,624, I believe.

But we tested more than 1/2 MILLION people last week. What will give us a much better picture is to evaluate that against a longer period of time, the change in testing numbers, the positive test rate, etc, etc, etc.

For the period prior to 3 weeks ago, Florida was testing 200,000 - 250,000 people per week, with an overall positive rate of 10.7%

Over the last 3 weeks, here are the numbers:
  • 3 weeks ago -- 366,368 tests, 43,876 positives, 12.0% positive rate
  • 2 weeks ago -- 393,881 tests, 58,185 positives, 14.8% positive rate
  • Last week -- 507,642 tests, 69,403 positives, 13.7% positive rate
Also, I was happy to see that New York state reported zero deaths yesterday. Here are Florida's deaths for the last few days:
  • July 9 - 23
  • July 10 - 17
  • July 11 - 11
  • July 12 - 8
People will say that Florida's death rate will tick back up, and they may be right. But we'll see if that actually happens.

The big difference between Florida's surge in cases and the onslaught NY faced is that our new cases are a LOT younger than NY's. In two weeks, our median age dropped from 49 to 39!

We also have the advantage that a lot has been learned about treatment as a result of NY's work, and death rates nationally are trending lower as a result.

*****
All that said, I think reopening WDW was a mistake that is going to cost a lot of misery. Some in Florida, but a lot more than just Florida.

We'll see what happens. Please don't root too hard for all of us to die!
Click to expand...

No one is rooting for anyone to die. What we are rooting for is to educate one more person to realize
this is a situation that needs to be taken seriously. One more person to realize that the number of infected people walking around in Florida is large, maybe larger than the day before. One more person that didn't die today, but received a positive test, may have an illness they struggle with for a long time. One more person that goes to the parks and feels fine until they get home and the next few days, walks into their testing center and gets a positive result, which they have now spread to who knows how many other states.

Have you considered that testing includes the huge numbers of essential workers that get tested over and over? Florida's testing numbers are skewed, because they don't count them like they are supposed to. Everyone that is essential has to have numerous tests. In Florida, they are counting each time that single person gets a test, as a test as long as they are negative. So a single person is counted multiple times in your testing number.

So if the same person is getting tested over and over again and they are negative, it's not really giving you the picture of testing results you need. It's one way to keep your percent positive from being adequately revealed.

You look at the number of tests and the number of people positive and get your percent positive. If it's heavily skewed toward negative tests, then you percent positive is off. That's why the conventional wisdom is to count people. Once a single person gets their results, whether positive or negative, that single person should never be counted again in the testing number reported. (Remember some essential employees are being tested weekly, bi-weekly, etc.) That is the when the true representation of the spread in your area is revealed. Florida doesn't want you to know the truth.
 
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JimMIA said:
If people insist on only looking at one day, that's a number for them to post -- although you understated it a bit. The actual number is 12,624, I believe.

But we tested more than 1/2 MILLION people last week. What will give us a much better picture is to evaluate that against a longer period of time, the change in testing numbers, the positive test rate, etc, etc, etc.

For the period prior to 3 weeks ago, Florida was testing 200,000 - 250,000 people per week, with an overall positive rate of 10.7%

Over the last 3 weeks, here are the numbers:
  • 3 weeks ago -- 366,368 tests, 43,876 positives, 12.0% positive rate
  • 2 weeks ago -- 393,881 tests, 58,185 positives, 14.8% positive rate
  • Last week -- 507,642 tests, 69,403 positives, 13.7% positive rate
Also, I was happy to see that New York state reported zero deaths yesterday. Here are Florida's deaths for the last few days:
  • July 9 - 23
  • July 10 - 17
  • July 11 - 11
  • July 12 - 8
People will say that Florida's death rate will tick back up, and they may be right. But we'll see if that actually happens.

The big difference between Florida's surge in cases and the onslaught NY faced is that our new cases are a LOT younger than NY's. In two weeks, our median age dropped from 49 to 39!

We also have the advantage that a lot has been learned about treatment as a result of NY's work, and death rates nationally are trending lower as a result.

*****
All that said, I think reopening WDW was a mistake that is going to cost a lot of misery. Some in Florida, but a lot more than just Florida.

We'll see what happens. Please don't root too hard for all of us to die!
Click to expand...

They also have better treatment options now than when NYC was hit. But you’re still limited by the number of hospital beds and healthcare providers.

I’m still looking for a positivity rate of 5% or less to know that they’re testing most of the infected people. We’re still high here in AZ, so even though our number is low for the day, we’re not catching all of the cases.

I’m planning on escaping to MT next month.
 
wombat_5606 said:
No one is rooting for anyone to die. What we are rooting for is to educate one more person to realize
this is a situation that needs to be taken seriously. One more person to realize that the number of infected people walking around in Florida is large, maybe larger than the day before. One more person that didn't die today, but received a positive test, may have an illness they struggle with for a long time. One more person that goes to the parks and feels fine until they get home and the next few days, walks into their testing center and gets a positive result, which they have now spread to who knows how many other states.

Have you considered that testing includes the huge numbers of essential workers that get tested over and over? Florida's testing numbers are skewed, because they don't count them like they are supposed to. Everyone that is essential has to have numerous tests. In Florida, they are counting each time that single person gets a test, as a test as long as they are negative. So a single person is counted multiple times in your testing number.

So if the same person is getting tested over and over again and they are negative, it's not really giving you the picture of testing results you need. It's one way to keep your percent positive from being adequately revealed.

You look at the number of tests and the number of people positive and get your percent positive. If it's heavily skewed toward negative tests, then you percent positive is off. That's why the conventional wisdom is to count people. Once a single person gets their results, whether positive or negative, that single person should never be counted in the testing number reported. (Remember some essential employees are being tested weekly, bi-weekly, etc.) That is the when the true representation of the spread in your area is revealed. Florida doesn't want you to know the truth.
Click to expand...

And from what is known of the procedures FL has in place for reporting, all those repeated tests of NBA- and MLS-affiliated individuals will be included in the tally of total tests. But, any positives from those tests will not be included in the total positives count.

Edit: Just to clarify in case some people do not know by now. FL includes all testing done of residents and non-residents in the total test counts, but they do not include non-residents in any positive case (or death) counts.
 
anthony2k7 said:
I'm finding it really difficult to believe FL deaths numbers.
Click to expand...

I agree. I saw a tweet where they compared the death rates in a several states and FLs was definitely out of the norm. From what I remember, the other states were within tenths of a percentage point of each other. I will see if I can find it and let you know.

It may take me a while. I have an appointment today so I don't know if I can find it before I have to leave.
 
DisneyJamieCA said:
I'm not even sure what thread this belongs on, so this seems like a good one. Granted it's one study and small one at that. But we have a vaping epidemic in my area, so I think it might be time we move past the idea that younger people aren't severely affected.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...13-20-intl/h_4f473ebee5ab58590a7a3e33dd03dfa8
Click to expand...

There’s also the fact that, according to the CDC, over 25% (to be exact, 27%) of the 18-and-under age group in the US has at least one of the following conditions: obesity, asthma, diabetes.
 
Hong Kong Disneyland is closing again on July 15. The government is making them shut down because there's a surge. They had 52 cases reported today. The park was open for less than a month.
 
ProgressCity said:
Hong Kong Disneyland is closing again on July 15. The government is making them shut down because there's a surge. They had 52 cases reported today. The park was open for less than a month.
Click to expand...
Was just about to post that.

Worth noting that the other issues going on in HK may have had some influence on the decision as well.

Plus perhaps park attendance as well? Whether or not they were making money was also possibly involved in the decision.

And one more thing, perhaps the Chinese/local government wanted to be seen to be doing more than USA federal and local governments?
 
ProgressCity said:
Hong Kong Disneyland is closing again on July 15. The government is making them shut down because there's a surge. They had 52 cases reported today. The park was open for less than a month.
Click to expand...
Honestly, I think civil unrest has more to do with the closure than Covid. Covid is the cover for why they *have* to close.
 
ProgressCity said:
Hong Kong Disneyland is closing again on July 15. The government is making them shut down because there's a surge. They had 52 cases reported today. The park was open for less than a month.
Click to expand...

Eh....Nothing to do with Covid of course. :rolleyes: Who would eliminate mass gatherings after you go from no cases to 52???? Why wouldn't you wait until they're dropping like flies? Btw, it's entirely possible that they traced that outbreak to DL.

Add me to the list of those not wishing for anyone to die. I'd like nothing better than for Florida and other states to do what they need to do to control this thing. It's why it makes me so angry that they refuse to and people insist on believing it's not real.
 
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anthony2k7 said:
Was just about to post that.

Worth noting that the other issues going on in HK may have had some influence on the decision as well.

Plus perhaps park attendance as well? Whether or not they were making money was also possibly involved in the decision.
Click to expand...
They've made it clear they're only shutting down because of the government. If it was a money issue, they would spin it as "doing the right thing." This is the statement on the Hong Kong Disneyland website:
  • As required by the government and health authorities in line with prevention efforts taking place across Hong Kong, Hong Kong Disneyland Park will temporarily close from July 15, 2020.
  • The resort hotels will remain open with adjusted level of services. Enhanced health and safety measures that reflect the guidance of health and government authorities have been put in place, such as social distancing measures and increased cleaning and sanitization.
 
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