GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[robinb]

That’s called shelter in place. Was the same in many other parts of the country.

Lockdown in China looked like this:

• No travel in and out of the area
• Cannot leave home except for grocery and medical reasons (no work)
• Only one family member can go get groceries once every 2 days
• Must check out and check in when leaving home to get grocery or medicine
• If purchasing even OTC medicine, you must provide personal ID so the store can keep a record
• Government officials can come by to do health surveys

AND ... if you became sick you were isolated away from your family so there was little chance you could spread it.

 

[onatrek]

Interesting article showing how one family gathering of 24 people in NC ended up infecting 14 family members.

From there, Covid so far has spread to at least 41 different people, in 9 different families, and 8 different workplaces, all in 16 days.

It also shows how contact tracing, if done (and done well) can really help show spread.

But it also shows how much bringing together so many people in one place can have much further reaching consequences than people sometimes really imagine...and this began with just a family gathering of 2 dozen and then almost double that (from what they know of) then ended up with Covid.

There's also a great chart showing the community spread (which all happened before any of the original family members from the family gathering had any symptoms), but I'm never able to insert those things right!

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244147427.html

 

[anthony2k7]

Interesting article showing how one family gathering of 24 people in NC ended up infecting 14 family members.

From there, Covid so far has spread to at least 41 different people, in 9 different families, and 8 different workplaces, all in 16 days.

It also shows how contact tracing, if done (and done well) can really help show spread.

But it also shows how much bringing together so many people in one place can have much further reaching consequences than people sometimes really imagine...and this began with just a family gathering of 2 dozen and then almost double that (from what they know of) then ended up with Covid.

There's also a great chart showing the community spread (which all happened before any of the original family members from the family gathering had any symptoms), but I'm never able to insert those things right!

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article244147427.html

Exactly.

People seem to think now FL has mask requirements in many places that will be enough to fix everything in a few weeks.

It won't. People don't wear masks when visiting family and friends, or when sharing a car with them etc.

Current restrictions with masks will slow it, but it isn't enough to stop it spreading.

 

[anthony2k7]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...onavirus-COVID-party-thinking-virus-hoax.html

just before he died, he looked at his nurse and said, 'I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it's not.'

So it still took until moments before he died for him to admit he thinks he got it wrong. Wow.

 

[Trvlnomad]

• have not been in contact with someone with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 symptoms without completing a 14-day quarantine

one of the Disney criteria's for park entrance. How would you even know?

 

[jlwhitney]

• have not been in contact with someone with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 symptoms without completing a 14-day quarantine

one of the Disney criteria's for park entrance. How would you even know?

this question is everywhere. Have to even answer it to go to our community pool.

 

[kymom99]

• have not been in contact with someone with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 symptoms without completing a 14-day quarantine

one of the Disney criteria's for park entrance. How would you even know?

No different than what the cruise lines had in place in February. “Have you been within 6 feet from someone who has been to or through China etc etc.”

All for show.

 

[cakebaker]

• have not been in contact with someone with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 symptoms without completing a 14-day quarantine

one of the Disney criteria's for park entrance. How would you even know?

It's a pointless requirement. There's no way to know if the person is being truthful. It's just for the appearance of safety.

 

[hertamaniac]

It's a pointless requirement. There's no way to know if the person is being truthful. It's just for the appearance of safety.

And how would some define "suspected"? My definition could be radically different than someone else's.

 

[3threebabies]

It's a pointless requirement. There's no way to know if the person is being truthful. It's just for the appearance of safety.

The same can be said regarding truthfulness for a portion or all of a contact tracing interview. In fact, a person may not even be untruthful for contact tracing but simply not remember every access point for 2 or so weeks. Eye witness accounts are often fraught with misinformation, and that misinformation does not always mean dishonest.

 

[gwynne]

The same can be said regarding truthfulness for a portion or all of a contact tracing interview. In fact, a person may not even be untruthful for contact tracing but simply not remember every access point for 2 or so weeks. Eye witness accounts are often fraught with misinformation, and that misinformation does not always mean dishonest.

Maybe?
People are creatures of habit. They hang out with friends, and tend to go back to favorite restaurants and bars.
Text messages and CC charges may be very helpful in assisting folks recall activities.

 

[cakebaker]

The same can be said regarding truthfulness for a portion or all of a contact tracing interview. In fact, a person may not even be untruthful for contact tracing but simply not remember every access point for 2 or so weeks. Eye witness accounts are often fraught with misinformation, and that misinformation does not always mean dishonest.

Regardless, it's a pointless question for entry requirement.

 

[KBoopaloo]

Exactly.

People seem to think now FL has mask requirements in many places that will be enough to fix everything in a few weeks.

It won't. People don't wear masks when visiting family and friends, or when sharing a car with them etc.

Current restrictions with masks will slow it, but it isn't enough to stop it spreading.

Exactly. I follow some CMs/vloggers on Instagram and this week one of them booked a room at a resort during park previews. Followed all the rules in the park for masks, etc. Then posted Instagram stories from the room where there were at least 7 other friends (most also CMs) hanging out all maskless in a DVC studio. As long as people are having gatherings like this with people outside of their homes this will keep spreading even if they follow the rules while at the parks or at work.

 

[RamblingMad]

Exactly. I follow some CMs/vloggers on Instagram and this week one of them booked a room at a resort during park previews. Followed all the rules in the park for masks, etc. Then posted Instagram stories from the room where there were at least 7 other friends (most also CMs) hanging out all maskless in a DVC studio. As long as people are having gatherings like this with people outside of their homes this will keep spreading even if they follow the rules while at the parks or at work.

If you’re going to catch it in the parks, you’re most likely to get it from a CM that’s been exposed to so many people or the mask whiners that won’t comply. It’s selfishness that keeps this virus going in the US.

And now FL has another 12 thousand cases. It’s going to the moon there.

 

[cakebaker]

Over 12.5 actually, but I’m sure there’s some good news there to be found. I mean, it’s down from yesterday, right? Headed in the right direction? :/

 

[Searc]

Over 12.5 actually, but I’m sure there’s some good news there to be found. I mean, it’s down from yesterday, right? Headed in the right direction? :/

The sad thing is, I can guarantee you'll read that exact thing somewhere on this board today.

 

[wombat_5606]

The sad thing is, I can guarantee you'll read that exact thing somewhere on this board today.

Don't forget to remind everyone it's a Monday though.

 

[cakebaker]

Don’t let your lying eyes fool you, this is not what you see. Even if it is, this is what the guinea pigs are for, to iron out the kinks. The problem is one kink like this can infect dozens of people who will be going home to spread it around. But what do I know, they’re just out to get Disney, even if they have to use the truth.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1282683006998794242

 

[dvcgirl67]

Over 12.5 actually, but I’m sure there’s some good news there to be found. I mean, it’s down from yesterday, right? Headed in the right direction? :/

Yup, all good. Let’s open the schools early, start the NFL tomorrow with packed stadiums and go into each other’s homes for a new national holiday. Let’s call it “Winning Day!!!”

 

[JimMIA]

And now FL has another 12 thousand cases. It’s going to the moon there.

If people insist on only looking at one day, that's a number for them to post -- although you understated it a bit. The actual number is 12,624, I believe.

But we tested more than 1/2 MILLION people last week. What will give us a much better picture is to evaluate that against a longer period of time, the change in testing numbers, the positive test rate, etc, etc, etc.

For the period prior to 3 weeks ago, Florida was testing 200,000 - 250,000 people per week, with an overall positive rate of 10.7%

Over the last 3 weeks, here are the numbers:

• 3 weeks ago -- 366,368 tests, 43,876 positives, 12.0% positive rate
• 2 weeks ago -- 393,881 tests, 58,185 positives, 14.8% positive rate
• Last week -- 507,642 tests, 69,403 positives, 13.7% positive rate

Also, I was happy to see that New York state reported zero deaths yesterday. Here are Florida's deaths for the last few days:

• July 9 - 23
• July 10 - 17
• July 11 - 11
• July 12 - 8

People will say that Florida's death rate will tick back up, and they may be right. But we'll see if that actually happens.

The big difference between Florida's surge in cases and the onslaught NY faced is that our new cases are a LOT younger than NY's. In two weeks, our median age dropped from 49 to 39!

We also have the advantage that a lot has been learned about treatment as a result of NY's work, and death rates nationally are trending lower as a result.

*****
All that said, I think reopening WDW was a mistake that is going to cost a lot of misery. Some in Florida, but a lot more than just Florida.

We'll see what happens. Please don't root too hard for all of us to die!