Grand Californian Sellout Poll

[jemiaule]

HH and VB proved that the magic, while nice, is not a controlling factor off property.

For HH could that be because it seems (at least to me) to be a very seasonal location? We do seem to see thread here and there with people trying to get HH for certain times of year and not having luck.

As for VB; if I am going to trek out to Florida I really want to go to WDW not another location. I always found it odd they built there.

 

[jemiaule]

Disney would not be putting 1.2 Billion into DCA if they thought the Disneyland Resort was a lost cause.

Sorry, did not mean to imply I thought DLR was a lost cause. More the point was I think they are going to wait quite a while to see how the changes go at DCA before even beginning to work on a 3rd gate. By the time that happens and then actually building it I think we will be outside a decade.

 

[disney-super-mom]

Hi DWelty, can you say when the "off" season for Anaheim is? Need to get that first ressie in so I can see my son in LA!

I'm not Dwelty, but it's comparable to WDW "off" season times.

September after labor day.
First couple weeks in November.
Most of January and Febuary.
May can also be a great time to visit.

(October is getting to be a busier time, so I don't think it's considered "off" season anymore.)

 

[dwelty]

I'm not Dwelty, but it's comparable to WDW "off" season times.

September after labor day.
First couple weeks in November.
Most of January and Febuary.
May can also be a great time to visit.

(October is getting to be a busier time, so I don't think it's considered "off" season anymore.)

Disney Super Mom is right. I would like to add that weekdays most of the year are not too bad except summer, Easter and Christmas. 70% of visitors to DLR are locals, therefore weekends are always the busiest no matter what the season.

 

[PrincessDadx2]

I voted for 1 year. I think Dis boarders vastly overestimate the number of existing members who are interested. Great interest to stay I am sure, but not to shell out another $10k or $20k.

I doubt daytrippers will buy and there are a lot fewer Europeans and Latin Americans who go to California on a regular basis. Airfare from the Northwest - you might as well go to Florida. My guess is they went low because they don't think the demand is there for a big timeshare resort. They put in more hotel rooms to match the existing demographic. If they succeed then they will build another, if not no harm done because it was so small.

 

[jemiaule]

Disney Super Mom is right. I would like to add that weekdays most of the year are not too bad except summer, Easter and Christmas. 70% of visitors to DLR are locals, therefore weekends are always the busiest no matter what the season.

I'd like to add that weekends can be fairly crowded during Disney's HalloweenTime; especially the weekend the mansion reopens. Seems the times we have gone the crowds were pretty bustling.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Thanks dwelty and disney super mom. Since it never really gets hot there as compared to the east, I'm not concerned about going swimming, etc. Just want as few crowds as possible, if thats possible! From reading this thread, looks like 3 days would be plenty to see both parks even though I'd stay 5 nights at GCV. Hopefully that big shopping district "Garden Walk" I think, will be finished by the end of '09. I think then we will shoot for May.

 

[wdw4life]

I'd like to add that weekends can be fairly crowded during Disney's HalloweenTime; especially the weekend the mansion reopens. Seems the times we have gone the crowds were pretty bustling.

The first weekend in October is Gay Days. The CHOC Walk used to be the first weekend too but they changed it to the third weekend this year. Those days are extra busy now that DLR is doing HolloweenTime.

 

[Longhairbear]

The first weekend in October is Gay Days. The CHOC Walk used to be the first weekend too but they changed it to the third weekend this year. Those days are extra busy now that DLR is doing HolloweenTime.

We tried booking a room for Gay Days at DLR, and everything Disney, and non Disney was booked solid at the time. We finally did get a room for the weekend.
It is more proof to us, that we NEED to get add on points at GC, just to get the 11 month window, to plan for events like this.

 

[dwelty]

I voted for 1 year. I think Dis boarders vastly overestimate the number of existing members who are interested. Great interest to stay I am sure, but not to shell out another $10k or $20k.

I was a Cast Member at DLR in college. We had quite a few visitors from Mexico and Central America, as well as a huge number of visitors from Asia (Despite the fact that they have Tokyo Disneyland) and Australia. Do not under estimate all of the visitors from West of the Rockies who call Disneyland Their home, and visit once a year. It is a similar situation to East Coasters and WDW. In addition, many locals (there are 9 Million of us after all) find it very convenient to stay for a couple of days on property when visiting. (Traffic back and forth between home and the resort is a nightmare. Many times we cannot get a room on property, and are forced to stay off site. The 96% occupancy rate at the DLR resorts should tell you what will happen with sales. My guide who is in California said response to the news is overwelming, and she has a list a mile long of people who are ready to buy. You are right that Disboarders are more enthusiastic than most Disney visitors, but I still think the points will sell in 6 months or less.

 

[beetle64]

DWELTY SAID

Another reason Disney management likes the Disneyland Resort is that it is far more recession proof that WDW. With a huge local population, Disneyland suffered far less than WDW did after September 11th. In the 2 years following that tradegy when WDW was seeing masive layoffs and drastically reduced park hours and entertainment options, Disneyland was chugging along with only a small drop in attendance

I'm not disagreeing with your views that Disney management wants to see a Disneyland that can offer a similar experience in terms of choice to WDW.
I do,however, think it's an over simplification/error to say Disneyland is more recession proof than WDW. 9/11 had a much greater effect both financially and psychologically on the Eastern coast of the USA ( particularly the North East USA) than it did on the West coast population. The heart of WDW attendences comes from that NorthEast corner ( NY,NJ, Mass, PA,DC etc) therefore it is not suprising that WDW felt the effects of an attack/disaster in the heartland of it's major customer base. Should San Fransisco,for example, suffer a disaster of similar magnitude (manmade or natural like a massive earthquake) I think you'd see Disneyland would suffer a dramatic reduction in it's fortunes with little or no effect on WDW.

IMHO rather than seeing Disneyland as "recession proof" Disney's management may have realised their "investment portfolio" was imbalanced and they were over relient/over invested in Fl and a sensible option is to aim for a more balanced risk exposure. Having a freestanding longterm destination on both coasts means that if anything ever happens to one of the Disney locations there is another that could absorb demand created by any disaster.

It could be that choice to diversify was driven by the events of 9/11, that WDW was a potential alternate target or the close escape from the hurricanes in 2004 but as an investment/business decision it seems a sensible one.

 

[JimC]

I...The next question is where would they put it? Current holding do not support putting in another park; especially if you consider the speculation they are going to want to add more resorts.

I guess they could buy surrounding land but what land? Anything on Katella is probably out because of the convention center and the large supporting hotels. Harbour could be a logistical nightmare as far as traffic flow and getting patrons over there. Probably the only alternative would be purchasing land on Walnut.

Disney already owns and/or has options on another block of land in the area. I believe it is adjacent to the convention center.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

DWELTY SAID
I'm not disagreeing with your views that Disney management wants to see a Disneyland that can offer a similar experience in terms of choice to WDW.
I do,however, think it's an over simplification/error to say Disneyland is more recession proof than WDW. 9/11 had a much greater effect both financially and psychologically on the Eastern coast of the USA ( particularly the North East USA) than it did on the West coast population. The heart of WDW attendences comes from that NorthEast corner ( NY,NJ, Mass, PA,DC etc) therefore it is not suprising that WDW felt the effects of an attack/disaster in the heartland of it's major customer base. Should San Fransisco,for example, suffer a disaster of similar magnitude (manmade or natural like a massive earthquake) I think you'd see Disneyland would suffer a dramatic reduction in it's fortunes with little or no effect on WDW.

IMHO rather than seeing Disneyland as "recession proof" Disney's management may have realised their "investment portfolio" was imbalanced and they were over relient/over invested in Fl and a sensible option is to aim for a more balanced risk exposure. Having a freestanding longterm destination on both coasts means that if anything ever happens to one of the Disney locations there is another that could absorb demand created by any disaster.

It could be that choice to diversify was driven by the events of 9/11, that WDW was a potential alternate target or the close escape from the hurricanes in 2004 but as an investment/business decision it seems a sensible one.

I lived in Annapolis, Maryland during the 9/11 attack. You would not believe the military air presence every day and night for at least a month. Constant fighter jets flying around, during the days and nights. I agree, the midatlantic area is much more protected because of NSA, Fort Deitrich, Naval Acadamy, Fort Meade, etc. No one was traveling anywhere at that time, we just were hoping the planes would stop flying. They were very loud.

 

[wdw4life]

I voted for 1 year. I think Dis boarders vastly overestimate the number of existing members who are interested. Great interest to stay I am sure, but not to shell out another $10k or $20k.

It also depends on how fast they open sales to the general public. It will only take approx 15,000 current members doing a 50 point add on to sell out. Of those some will buy more (me) and some will buy less.

Anyone who wants to stay more than once in a great while is going to at least have to do a minimum point add on. With such a small # of rooms available non-owners are going to have a hard time getting in.

 

[Longhairbear]

Disney already owns and/or has options on another block of land in the area. I believe it is adjacent to the convention center.

Also the newspapers reported a few months ago that owners of land and buildings in the area have been getting unsolicited offers from Disney to buy their properties.

 

[Longhairbear]

It also depends on how fast they open sales to the general public. It will only take approx 15,000 current members doing a 50 point add on to sell out. Of those some will buy more (me) and some will buy less.

Anyone who wants to stay more than once in a great while is going to at least have to do a minimum point add on. With such a small # of rooms available non-owners are going to have a hard time getting in.

I agree, and haven't sat down to figure out how many add on points we would need at GC DVC. We usually do day trips, but would do a few overnight weekends for special events, and weekday overnight, or multi-night stays for holiday, birthdays etc.
Most underestimate the HUGE pool of AP holders at DLR that are still unaware of how DVC works. They tend to be rabid Disney fans like myself, but just haven't taken that one step further like we have. The ones that can afford a membership will snap up GC DVC points in no time.

 

[BroganMc]

I guess I'm conservative here but I voted for 6 months to a year. My reasoning is that I just don't see it selling out to existing membership. Most are East Coasters who will prefer visiting WDW. And those who want to add-on for a few nights stay will be doing small contracts for a few nights. I can't see a big investment of week-long points.

Then we get to public sales which means educating the West Coasters about how DVC works and its advantages. That takes quite a bit of convincing when they've been able to get cheaper hotel rooms nearby. And if DVC requires the usual 160 minimum contract for new members, I expect they'll have an even harder sale. It forces members to book longer stays at GCV yearly.I kinda doubt the "book at 11 mos and switch at 7 mos." is going to work as smoothly for GCV owners. Not with the violatility of the current WDW reservation system and the need to purchase airfare earlier to avoid paying through the nose.

But all that said, I expect it'll be closer to 6 months rather than a year for the sole reason that we're talking about the smallest DVC resort in history.

 

[JimC]

Also the newspapers reported a few months ago that owners of land and buildings in the area have been getting unsolicited offers from Disney to buy their properties.

Not surprised they would be seeking more land, but am a bit surprised they are doing it openly. A front company would make more sense, I believe.

 

[dwelty]

Not surprised they would be seeking more land, but am a bit surprised they are doing it openly. A front company would make more sense, I believe.

Due to California Realestate laws this could never happen. The true buyer must be revealed before a transaction can go forward. (This has to do with Environemental impact laws) Another variable is that property owners within 2miles of the Disneyland Resort know full well what their property is worth (Whether Disney buys it, or Hilton, or Marriot). Unfortunately for Disney, they will never see the kind of freedom they experienced during the Central Florida land grab of 1963. However, This would explaine why they are in talks with Garden Walk to build 2 new hotels there (According to the LA Times).

They do have enough land right now to build 2 more good sized resorts behind paradise Pier, and almost double the capacity of the parking structure building on the Pinicchio lot, freeing up even more parking lot space. I think the only likely place that they would buy up more property would be around the "Third Gate" land for eventual expansion. Since California relestate over the long haul is a good investment, they may be willing to do this even if they will mot build there for 10 or more years.

 

[DebbieB]

I am in Anaheim right now (staying at Homewood Suites, the Disneyland hotels were soldout for the weekend). I was surprised how close GC is to California Adventure. It is literally right next to Soarin' over California.