GF direct over Riviera direct is a no brainer

[TinkB278]

I still think VGF resale was historically so high because there wasn’t much inventory. They are about to have a huge influx of points that are mainly for studios. I don’t think supply/demand will allow the VGF resale price to stay as high as it once was, especially once VGF2 is sold out. Not sure why people think past resale prices at VGF mean anything anymore.

 

[Nursemanit]

I still think VGF resale was historically so high because there wasn’t much inventory. They are about to have a huge influx of points that are mainly for studios. I don’t think supply/demand will allow the VGF resale price to stay as high as it once was, especially once VGF2 is sold out. Not sure why people think past resale prices at VGF mean anything anymore.

Sold out direct price will set the resale target

If VGF is 265 direct it probably sell for 190 and up resale.

The real hit to RR resale will be in 2042 or earlier when they announce plans for BWV2 and BCV2 - until then it will hold its own as the only Epcot non 2042 resort.( it is almost like there was a plan)

 

[havoc315]

Sold out direct price will set the resale target

If VGF is 265 direct it probably sell for 190 and up resale.

The real hit to RR resale will be in 2042 or earlier when they announce plans for BWV2 and BCV2 - until then it will hold its own as the only Epcot non 2042 resort.( it is almost like there was a plan)

And in 2042, BWV2 and BCV2 will be sold with the same re-sale restrictions as Riviera. (And doubt both resorts go on sale in 2042... I'm expecting major renovations that can take some time).

So yes --- Riviera will have more competition when BWV2 and BCV2 come on line. But I'd expect it to be akin to BRV vs CCV right now.
BWV2 and BCV2, when they launch sometime in the 2040's will have full 50-year restricted contracts. RIV will have under 30 years left...
Also at that time, BWV2 and BCV2 won't have any ROFR... If history is a guide, RIV will be ROFRed at that time.

So all those factors will go into the resale prices. It won't be "nobody" buys Riviera. But I certainly expect RIV re-sale pricing to be lower than brand new resorts with 50-year contracts.

 

[Nursemanit]

And in 2042, BWV2 and BCV2 will be sold with the same re-sale restrictions as Riviera. (And doubt both resorts go on sale in 2042... I'm expecting major renovations that can take some time).

So yes --- Riviera will have more competition when BWV2 and BCV2 come on line. But I'd expect it to be akin to BRV vs CCV right now.
BWV2 and BCV2, when they launch sometime in the 2040's will have full 50-year restricted contracts. RIV will have under 30 years left...
Also at that time, BWV2 and BCV2 won't have any ROFR... If history is a guide, RIV will be ROFRed at that time.

So all those factors will go into the resale prices. It won't be "nobody" buys Riviera. But I certainly expect RIV re-sale pricing to be lower than brand new resorts with 50-year contracts.

There will be resale almost immediately after BW2 and BC2 open ( just like there was with RR) Impulse buyers won't go away. I predict the resale of RR will be lower than BW2 resale and both lower than BC2 resale.

I 100% agree that CCV is the model for pricing - small resort with loyal ( fanatical) fan base.

 

[havoc315]

There will be resale almost immediately after BW2 and BC2 open ( just like there was with RR) Impulse buyers won't go away. I predict the resale of RR will be lower than BW2 resale and both lower than BC2 resale.

Of course there will. But they won't ROFR -- So there will be no bottom to the price. They don't ROFR currently selling resorts.

So.... obviously prices will be higher in 204x, but using 2022 prices as an example:
If it's 2044, they are launching BCV2 -- RIV is "sold out" -- Direct point pricing at Riviera is $240. Direct incentivized points at BCV are $190.
They are basically ROFRing all RIV contracts at $150 -- So minimum re-sale value at Riviera is $150.
BCV has no ROFR floor... and new points are $190.
So.. it's certainly possible that BCV2 resale quickly comes on the market at $160... slightly above the RIV ROFR price..
Also certainly possible that while new points at $190, BCV2 re-sale only goes for $140, while RIV is getting $150.

There are a lot of factors at play:
-- What is the direct price for the sold out Riviera
-- What is the incentivized price for BCV2/BWV2
-- What is the "draw" for each resort -- Maybe people will hate BCV2/BWV2 because they come with even far worse re-sale restrictions, or they have ridiculously high point charts. Maybe people will love them not just for the location, but because of their new floating infinity pool in the sky... We don't have any idea here.
-- What is the ROFR price for RIV.
-- What are the other competing resorts in the Epcot area... what is the Disney transportation system like in the 2040's... What are the other competing resorts around the entire property

I 100% agree that CCV is the model for pricing - small resort with loyal ( fanatical) fan base.

Only modeling it as "new resort with new contract as opposed to older resort with fewer years remaining."

 

[Nursemanit]

Of course there will. But they won't ROFR -- So there will be no bottom to the price. They don't ROFR currently selling resorts.

So.... obviously prices will be higher in 204x, but using 2022 prices as an example:
If it's 2044, they are launching BCV2 -- RIV is "sold out" -- Direct point pricing at Riviera is $240. Direct incentivized points at BCV are $190.
They are basically ROFRing all RIV contracts at $150 -- So minimum re-sale value at Riviera is $150.
BCV has no ROFR floor... and new points are $190.
So.. it's certainly possible that BCV2 resale quickly comes on the market at $160... slightly above the RIV ROFR price..
Also certainly possible that while new points at $190, BCV2 re-sale only goes for $140, while RIV is getting $150.

There are a lot of factors at play:
-- What is the direct price for the sold out Riviera
-- What is the incentivized price for BCV2/BWV2
-- What is the "draw" for each resort -- Maybe people will hate BCV2/BWV2 because they come with even far worse re-sale restrictions, or they have ridiculously high point charts. Maybe people will love them not just for the location, but because of their new floating infinity pool in the sky... We don't have any idea here.
-- What is the ROFR price for RIV.
-- What are the other competing resorts in the Epcot area... what is the Disney transportation system like in the 2040's... What are the other competing resorts around the entire property



Only modeling it as "new resort with new contract as opposed to older resort with fewer years remaining."

No one will hate BC - it will not even need incentives. I could even see them not having a BC2 DVC and just doing BW2 ( 100%)

BC is the one cash resort that they sell out of most of the year.

 

[TraderStitch]

I don't speak for every Riviera owner, but I personally don't care what it resells for. If it goes for $1 a point when I'm 80, that will be one less monthly payment on MF's for me to pay.

 

[havoc315]

No one will hate BC - it will not even need incentives. I could even see them not having a BC2 DVC and just doing BW2 ( 100%)

You have no idea what BCV2 will be. If they rip it down, put it an ugly tower.. with a point chart where studios are 50 points per night Put in re-sale restrictions that make re-sale completely unusable... (Imagine -- re-sale buyers may only use their points at BCV and only during a narrow 1 month window). I dare say that it is actually LIKELY that BCV2 will have re-sale restrictions even worse than RIV, just like RIV has re-sale restrictions worse than the older resorts.

There are lots of things that can be done that would depress the value of BCV2 resale. Which is why so much is unknowable about the future resale.

BC is the one cash resort that they sell out of most of the year.

 

[TinkB278]

Sold out direct price will set the resale target

If VGF is 265 direct it probably sell for 190 and up resale.

The real hit to RR resale will be in 2042 or earlier when they announce plans for BWV2 and BCV2 - until then it will hold its own as the only Epcot non 2042 resort.( it is almost like there was a plan)

Dvc direct prices also appear to be based on demand… there is no other explanation for the price of bcv, etc. if the demand isn’t there for VGF because of a surplus of points and contracts, they won’t set the price so high.

 

[Nursemanit]

You have no idea what BCV2 will be. If they rip it down, put it an ugly tower.. with a point chart where studios are 50 points per night Put in re-sale restrictions that make re-sale completely unusable... (Imagine -- re-sale buyers may only use their points at BCV and only during a narrow 1 month window). I dare say that it is actually LIKELY that BCV2 will have re-sale restrictions even worse than RIV, just like RIV has re-sale restrictions worse than the older resorts.

There are lots of things that can be done that would depress the value of BCV2 resale. Which is why so much is unknowable about the future resale.

We already know that an ugly tower with an overpriced point chart and restrictions will sell-

Now add SAB and thousands of kids screaming to stay there and you will still sell out.

Yeah we can't be certain of the future but BC2 would be the best bet for success in all of WDW.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

We already know that an ugly tower with an overpriced point chart and restrictions will sell-

Now add SAB and thousands of kids screaming to stay there and you will still sell out.

Yeah we can't be certain of the future but BC2 would be the best bet for success in all of WDW.

That's IF they tear down BC and add/keep SAB. It costs a fortune to run/maintain that. My guess is it is torn down for something more cost-effective. Who knows what the pool du jour will be in 2042?

 

[havoc315]

We already know that an ugly tower with an overpriced point chart and restrictions will sell-

Now add SAB and thousands of kids screaming to stay there and you will still sell out.

Yeah we can't be certain of the future but BC2 would be the best bet for success in all of WDW.

How do you know SAB will even be there? You're making a lot of assumptions.

It's possible that resale restrictions are imposed that make resale almost impossible. Think it would hurt re-sale, if all re-sale buyers had to pay a $500 booking fee, any time they wanted to use their points?
How do you know SAB won't be demolished and replaced with a waterless photonic light pool that gets invented in 2040?

Lots of people are trying to project into the 2040's, as if it will just be a slight variation of 2022.

In 2002, nobody would ever have considered, "maybe they demolish part of a moderate resort to build a new DVC, and the new DVC with restrictions where re-sale buyers won't be allowed to trade to different resorts... and they will build a whole new gondola system to transport the guests to DHS and Epcot... Oh, and DHS will suddenly be the second most popular park with massive Toy Story and Star Wars additions"
Back in 2002, nobody would have predicted, "they are going to convert regular hotel rooms to DVC "resort studios."
In fact, back in 2002... There was virtually no DVC in the Magic Kingdom on the monorail.

A LOT can change in 20+ years. Just because BCV is popular in 2022, doesn't really let you make any predictions about 2042+.

 

[Nursemanit]

How do you know SAB will even be there? You're making a lot of assumptions.

It's possible that resale restrictions are imposed that make resale almost impossible. Think it would hurt re-sale, if all re-sale buyers had to pay a $500 booking fee, any time they wanted to use their points?
How do you know SAB won't be demolished and replaced with a waterless photonic light pool that gets invented in 2040?

Lots of people are trying to project into the 2040's, as if it will just be a slight variation of 2022.

In 2002, nobody would ever have considered, "maybe they demolish part of a moderate resort to build a new DVC, and the new DVC with restrictions where re-sale buyers won't be allowed to trade to different resorts... and they will build a whole new gondola system to transport the guests to DHS and Epcot... Oh, and DHS will suddenly be the second most popular park with massive Toy Story and Star Wars additions"
Back in 2002, nobody would have predicted, "they are going to convert regular hotel rooms to DVC "resort studios."
In fact, back in 2002... There was virtually no DVC in the Magic Kingdom on the monorail.

A LOT can change in 20+ years. Just because BCV is popular in 2022, doesn't really let you make any predictions about 2042+.

Your posts make lots of assumptions as well - The sky could also fall down

I am assuming DVC will do the least possible work to make the most profit. We have a good history of that happening in the past 5 years so that is what I would bet on.

 

[havoc315]

Your posts make lots of assumptions as well - The sky could also fall down

Not really. I'm assuming Riviera will still exist in 204x... Considering the contracts go to 2070.

Other than that, I'm not making any assumptions 20+ years in the future. The most certain thing: Odds are that things will be totally different than you assume. Then there are some pretty safe assumptions -- They ROFR sold-out resorts, but not currently selling resorts. Pretty safe assumption that when BCV/BWV expire, there will be some form of new DVC in that location, but I have no clue what that DVC may or may not be.

I am assuming DVC will do the least possible work to make the most profit. We have a good history of that happening in the past 5 years so that is what I would bet on.

So Disney would never demolish a moderate resort, build and expensive gondola system, and build a whole new tower. Not when they could just convert some CBR rooms to a moderate DVC.

Disney will never build bungalows and cabins at DVC options in the Magic Kingdom area.

Disney would never take down the Spirit of Aloha building and build a new tower to DVC, not when they can just convert another longhouse to DVC studios.

Your "history" is entirely false. Disney has made massive changes in the last 5-10 years. Heck, even 5 years ago, I never ever would have predicted that they would convert a GF building to "resort studios."

Maybe BCV2 will be Grand Villas only.... a luxury DVC that costs 200 nights per point to book.
Trying to project that, "In 2045, BCV re-sale will be $2.50 higher than RIV resale" is nonsense. There are way way too many factors to make such projections.
Right now, Beach Club resale is almost the exact same as Poly resale. Within $2-3 of each other.

If I asked you 20 years ago --- "So they are going to build a new resort at Polynesian in about another decade... in 20 years, which do you think will have higher resale, Beach Club or this new Poly DVC?"
If you think you could have predicted 20 years ago, that they would have nearly the same re-sale value 20 years later... then you truly are a fortune teller!

 

[Nursemanit]

Not really. I'm assuming Riviera will still exist in 204x... Considering the contracts go to 2070.

Other than that, I'm not making any assumptions 20+ years in the future. The most certain thing: Odds are that things will be totally different than you assume. Then there are some pretty safe assumptions -- They ROFR sold-out resorts, but not currently selling resorts. Pretty safe assumption that when BCV/BWV expire, there will be some form of new DVC in that location, but I have no clue what that DVC may or may not be.




So Disney would never demolish a moderate resort, build and expensive gondola system, and build a whole new tower. Not when they could just convert some CBR rooms to a moderate DVC.

Disney will never build bungalows and cabins at DVC options in the Magic Kingdom area.

Disney would never take down the Spirit of Aloha building and build a new tower to DVC, not when they can just convert another longhouse to DVC studios.

Your "history" is entirely false. Disney has made massive changes in the last 5-10 years. Heck, even 5 years ago, I never ever would have predicted that they would convert a GF building to "resort studios."

Maybe BCV2 will be Grand Villas only.... a luxury DVC that costs 200 nights per point to book.
Trying to project that, "In 2045, BCV re-sale will be $2.50 higher than RIV resale" is nonsense. There are way way too many factors to make such projections.
Right now, Beach Club resale is almost the exact same as Poly resale. Within $2-3 of each other.

If I asked you 20 years ago --- "So they are going to build a new resort at Polynesian in about another decade... in 20 years, which do you think will have higher resale, Beach Club or this new Poly DVC?"
If you think you could have predicted 20 years ago, that they would have nearly the same re-sale value 20 years later... then you truly are a fortune teller!

The RR was disney doing the cheapest thing possible putting a generic tower in a moderate location - as was taking over existing GF rooms and not even converting them to DVC style rooms.

The more you ramble on the more you prove my points

 

[havoc315]

The RR was disney doing the cheapest thing possible putting a generic tower in a moderate location - as was taking over existing GF rooms and not even converting them to DVC style rooms.

The more you ramble on the more you prove my points

If you think anything about the construction of Riviera was "cheapest thing possible," then you really need to reassess.
How is building a whole new gondola transportation system the "cheapest thing possible?"
And if you've looked at the quality of the construction of Riviera, you'd know it was certainly not the "cheapest thing possible."
And demolishing buildings, building a whole new resort from scratch -- Is never the "cheapest thing possible."

But anyway..... who is going to win the World Series in 2044? I figure that's easier to predict than re-sale value of a resort that we don't even know if it will exist..

 

[Nursemanit]

If you think anything about the construction of Riviera was "cheapest thing possible," then you really need to reassess.
How is building a whole new gondola transportation system the "cheapest thing possible?"
And if you've looked at the quality of the construction of Riviera, you'd know it was certainly not the "cheapest thing possible."
And demolishing buildings, building a whole new resort from scratch -- Is never the "cheapest thing possible."

But anyway..... who is going to win the World Series in 2044? I figure that's easier to predict than re-sale value of a resort that we don't even know if it will exist..

The gondola was for 3 resorts not just RR

And yes the construction of RR is cheap as is the press board furniture. Don't confuse new with quality.

 

[CarolMN]

WARNING: Many of the posts in this thread are borderline at best.

Please watch how you are quoting others and do not post replies that can be considered sarcastic, personal, argumentative or considered an attack. There's no need to repeat an opinion over and over.

If you can't find a way to express an opinion without belittling someone else's, take a breath and move on! The thread will be locked if these kind of posts continue.

 

[psc85]

Buying Riviera over GFV direct is a foolish decision. There are too many advantages in buying GFV over Riviera.
No resale restrictions which means that if you have to sell at some point GFV will probably be twice the value of Riviera.
GFV dues are about $1.30 per point less.
Rooms are comparable / almost identical.
Views are much better at GFV.
GFV is walking distance to a park and a valuable Monorail resort.
Dining options and Shopping options far overtake Riviera.
You can always use your Direct points to stay at Riviera if you want.

Can anyone come up with a reason to buy Riviera over GFV ? Please dont say its on the skyliner .

I have stayed at the Riviera and its nice . But Im not giving DVC any money to condone the ridiculous and unnecessary restrictions they have put on that resort. If they are successful with selling out that resort quickly then whats to stop them from doing this to every resort in the future. It just devalues the whole product to current owners.

I hope it takes them 20 years to sell that resort out !

To answer the OP's question, we bought direct at Riviera as new DVC members simply because Riviera is NOT the Grand Floridian. In our opinion it has the same elegance as the Grand without all of the baggage.

The cozy Riviera lobby doesn't turn into a fifth gate during the holiday season like the Grand Lobby does (ever see what that does to the Monorail queue?). ALSO, as far as we can tell, Riviera is one of the few Disney Resorts that has it's own dedicated bus stations, and doesn't seem to share with other resorts, unlike the Grand.....

I can go on, but it sounds like a lot of GF stans have an axe to grind with Rivera for merely existing, so it doesn't seem that I will change any minds sharing my 2 cents.

PS....we totally love the Skyliner as well, less mass transit vibes when compared to the monorail.

 

[DVCsloth]

To answer the OP's question, we bought direct at Riviera as new DVC members simply because Riviera is NOT the Grand Floridian. In our opinion it has the same elegance as the Grand without all of the baggage.

The cozy Riviera lobby doesn't turn into a fifth gate during the holiday season like the Grand Lobby does (ever see what that does to the Monorail queue?). ALSO, as far as we can tell, Riviera is one of the few Disney Resorts that has it's own dedicated bus stations, and doesn't seem to share with other resorts, unlike the Grand.....

I can go on, but it sounds like a lot of GF stans have an axe to grind with Rivera for merely existing, so it doesn't seem that I will change any minds sharing my 2 cents.

PS....we totally love the Skyliner as well, less mass transit vibes when compared to the monorail.

We own both and love them both! The new BPK decision did push me to buying Riv instead of adding VGF though.