Take a really good look at the
point charts based on when you want to visit in a 1bd.
There can be a massive point difference.
Also, VDH direct can waitlist at VGC…. but VGC resale can’t waitlist at VDH.
Sure, VDH *can* waitlist at VGC but how often does it actually clear?
I would never never use my VGC points (whether direct or resale) at VDH, so the ability to waitlist there doesn't really matter to moi.
Given the nature of how points at GCV are going to be used their exclusively (or close to it), I can't think of a single reason to go direct unless you really really want access to Star View Station or whatever it is called. If you are a DVC existing owner with direct benefits, then I really can't imagine what the advantage of GCV would be.
This is where I land-- except I believe the OP already has a decent number of direct at WDW? If you don't own direct anywhere yet, the gap between VGC direct and resale might be the narrowest of anywhere currently on sale direct for small contracts?
I owned 350 direct (split between AUL and VGF) when I finally bought 125 resale at VGC-- I might have bought direct if 80-120 had been offered to me before buying resale (and I'd consider adding 25-50 direct if they ever decide to sell my UY again... I kept being offered Feb and then when this month turned over Jun, eyeroll). I will never use more than a handful of my VGC points offsite unless I seriously screw something up (which is possible!) but I know I can use them at places I like better at WDW and AUL if it comes to that. I do think eventually there will be a new DVC property in DLR that I want to try, but I can use the large number of direct points to try it and if it is (somehow) better than VGC, I'll just buy a contract there in the future.
Oh, one other to think about--VGC's
point chart is not that forgiving, so 75 points a year is never going to get you much more than 3 nights in a studio (and many times less!)-- so it's one thing to say a "5k" difference and another to think about whether it's 3 nights a year and change or enough for 5... if you're the kind of person who wants to visit more than 3 nights a year. I bought 125 figuring it would be enough for 2 nights in a 1 bd villa and 2-3 nights in a studio and am already realizing I need to be very limited on my dates if I want to make that work (or spend more nights in studios).
Counterpoint (caveat)-- the "never stay at VDH" analysis may not make as much sense to the "must stay in Disney bubble" crowd. For example, last night I walked with my two elementary school aged children from the esplanade down HARBOR (gasp!) all the way across Katella (double gasp!) to the Sheraton at 9:40pm, where I had booked a room for $200 (including taxes and fees) last minute, with a dead on view of the fireworks. We actually prefer to stay at the Westin over the Sheraton but it is often 1.5-2x as expensive.
I understand this feels scary and/or ruins the "Disney bubble" for some but if you are not afraid of the mean streets of Anaheim, it's *really* hard to justify buying VGC points at $330 (direct) only to spend them at VDH (where you'll get nailed with the ToT on top of it) and have a longer walk than many offsite hotels, with far less flexibility to book and adjust last minute trips.