Future Trends for VGC resale?

[ClaraOswald]

I don't know what your use year is but there is a 56pt contract listed right now at $280/pt.

Sadly, not my UY.

Addonitis is real... Why do I fond myself perusing the VGC listings when I just bought VDH and haven't even stayed there yet? I did book my first 1BR to take my DS.

Last time I stayed at VGC I loved the location, lobby & pool. I wasn't a fan of the rooms. They seemed pretty outdated to me and I prefer something more modern. Hopefully after a VDH stay I will stop yearning for VGC.

Getting back to the topic of this thread - I'm sure I will buy something if prices do drop.

If you prefer a modern look...I really think you're going to love VDH. (I mean, I haven't seen it in person yet but in pictures, I do think it looks great!) I like the Craftsman style of the Grand Californian so I hope they don't modernize things too much during the refurb.

 

[tx911]

If someone mostly goes to Disneyland, resale VGC can’t be used at VDH and vice versa. Makes direct significantly more compelling than a mostly WDW visitor being locked out of some smaller proportion of resorts at WDW.

This gave me pause when I decided to buy VGC resale, but then I remembered that all my VGF and RIV points can be used at VDH at 7 months.

 

[JoshF]

This gave me pause when I decided to buy VGC resale, but then I remembered that all my VGF and RIV points can be used at VDH at 7 months.

So far, it looks like you will still have plenty of selection at VDH at the seven month mark

 

[tx911]

So far, it looks like you will still have plenty of selection at VDH at the seven month mark

Yes, I'm hoping I can get in at VDH at 7 months every other year, and VGC at 11 months in between with my small VGC contract. VDH availability may change, but then I'll just buy a second VGC contract and stay there every year.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

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[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

We had multiple stays at DLH (mostly Frontier tower) while the VDH tower was being built. In the rooms the noise was a non issue. They were sound proofed pretty good. Outside though you could hear all the construction noise.

Yeah, I assume Disney wouldn’t be doing construction work much during sleeping hours (not sure about Disneyland Dr, actually ) but I also wouldn’t want to stay at VDH and be in the room all day, even if it is well soundproofed (I’ve seen people complain about HVAC noises on VDH specific threads but we had a good experience there, even on a low floor). My preference is to avoid the heaviest period of construction entirely, but if staying for a week at peak construction is what it takes to get a couple new lands built, I’m willing to take one for the DVC member team.

 

[BrianLo]

Almost every WDW resort has had the Pandemic pricing run up release and have reverted to 2019 prices. VGC hasn’t quite yet, I’m wondering if some of that is unwillingness to fully let the bubble pop because it was run up a second time with VDH.

It’ll be interesting to see. If the broader DVC market floor remains where it is for long enough and we start getting more and more VDH resale supply, I could see contracts back in the sub 200s again.


Fun unfortunate fact, when I started researching DVC in earnest in Spring 2019 I had come to the conclusion I was actually going to buy VGC when I was in a position to do so… and treat them as partial sleep around points.

They were 150pp in my defense - I even had a Saratoga treehouse picked out for a possible trip… on VGC points. I still don’t own VGC.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Almost every WDW resort has had the Pandemic pricing run up release and have reverted to 2019 prices. VGC hasn’t quite yet, I’m wondering if some of that is unwillingness to fully let the bubble pop because it was run up a second time with VDH.

It’ll be interesting to see. If the broader DVC market floor remains where it is for long enough and we start getting more and more VDH resale supply, I could see contracts back in the sub 200s again.


Fun unfortunate fact, when I started researching DVC in earnest in Spring 2019 I had come to the conclusion I was actually going to buy VGC when I was in a position to do so… and treat them as partial sleep around points.

They were 150pp in my defense - I even had a Saratoga treehouse picked out for a possible trip… on VGC points. I still don’t own VGC.

I’m a bit baffled as to why VGC points would come down because VDH (restricted!) resale points come on the market (even if it drives VDH resale to $125, which I do not anticipate)— as it is, you can get VDH direct for 33% less than VCG resale, so I don’t think making an even less compelling alternative easier to buy is going to have much impact.

I think VGC has the best location of any Disney Vacation Club or hotel in America, and that counts for something. It also has a reasonable point chart and there just aren’t a lot of alternatives and it’s a very small total number of points. I think of it as Beach Club on steroids and it has 2x as long remaining on the contract. It is small enough that only a small fraction of DLR guests need to strongly prefer it to VDH to maintain pricing. I think the bigger contracts might drop a bit more from here because they are sooooo expensive, but I would be surprised if double digit contracts dip much further because there are a lot of us who would be eager to take them in the $200-$225 range (I suspect far more of us than there are sellers willing to sell in the $200 range!).

 

[Electron_si]

Sadly, not my UY.



If you prefer a modern look...I really think you're going to love VDH. (I mean, I haven't seen it in person yet but in pictures, I do think it looks great!) I like the Craftsman style of the Grand Californian so I hope they don't modernize things too much during the refurb.

We actually stayed at VDH Tower on a cash reservation in March. We don’t have a specific preference for style as we like several of the WDW resorts and all have different theming. I found the VDH tower to be well themed and the design selections were done extremely well IMO.

I will say however that finish work of the actual construction were below what I expected. A couple of the corners in the bathroom were missing some grout, and the overall finish work in the bathroom seemed rushed.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m a bit baffled as to why VGC points would come down because VDH (restricted!) resale points come on the market (even if it drives VDH resale to $125, which I do not anticipate)— as it is, you can get VDH direct for 33% less than VCG resale, so I don’t think making an even less compelling alternative easier to buy is going to have much impact.

I think VGC has the best location of any Disney Vacation Club or hotel in America, and that counts for something. It also has a reasonable point chart and there just aren’t a lot of alternatives and it’s a very small total number of points. I think of it as Beach Club on steroids and it has 2x as long remaining on the contract. It is small enough that only a small fraction of DLR guests need to strongly prefer it to VDH to maintain pricing. I think the bigger contracts might drop a bit more from here because they are sooooo expensive, but I would be surprised if double digit contracts dip much further because there are a lot of us who would be eager to take them in the $200-$225 range (I suspect far more of us than there are sellers willing to sell in the $200 range!).

Sorry, not so much that it is being brought down because of VDH… more that it was pumped up because VDH and still hasn’t fully settled back down.

I guess my point is every other property has reset to its previous floor. So why does VGC have a new floor?

I think for all those reasons you mention it will still obviously be the most expensive property, there’s still some built in demand that will release as it slowly unwinds. But more an argument that if VGF is carrying a 125% premium and selling in the 160’s, I think VGC carrying a 150% premium and selling in the 190’s is not outside of the realm of possibilities. That is after all where it was before.

So I guess my question back to everyone is what changed that suddenly made VGC more valuable? I can follow an argument that VDH is neutral to the pricing. Though I’d argue slightly the opposite, if a DLR property can be eventually gotten at the 7mo window it takes some of the pressure and desperation off VGC. But in order for VGC to kick around 225 while the rest of the properties reset you’d have to argue it’s the one property in the system that suddenly isn’t just the most valuable, like it probably always way. But also deserves another secret FOMO premium.


I think the reason this isn’t a super receptive argument at the end of the day is a lot of people have bought in the last couple years here and are somewhat biased to not want it to drop further, in their hearts. Despite being willing to buy more if it does, which I’m sure many are.

The trouble of course are the Transient taxes on VDH, maybe no one previously considered VGC really subsidized and now they do, so I guess I can make a small argument that’s the sudden secret sauce.

 

[Rex1993]

I will say however that finish work of the actual construction were below what I expected. A couple of the corners in the bathroom were missing some grout, and the overall finish work in the bathroom seemed rushed.

Everyone seems to hate on VGC saying it’s in dire need of a refresh but I think that the actual finish quality is superior compared to VGF. Five feet away VGF looks awesome but upon closer inspection there were a ton of things where you could tell the construction team just didn’t care, didn’t have the skill or didn’t have the budget to make it right.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I’m a bit baffled as to why VGC points would come down because VDH (restricted!) resale points come on the market (even if it drives VDH resale to $125, which I do not anticipate)— as it is, you can get VDH direct for 33% less than VCG resale, so I don’t think making an even less compelling alternative easier to buy is going to have much impact.

I think VGC has the best location of any Disney Vacation Club or hotel in America, and that counts for something. It also has a reasonable point chart and there just aren’t a lot of alternatives and it’s a very small total number of points. I think of it as Beach Club on steroids and it has 2x as long remaining on the contract. It is small enough that only a small fraction of DLR guests need to strongly prefer it to VDH to maintain pricing. I think the bigger contracts might drop a bit more from here because they are sooooo expensive, but I would be surprised if double digit contracts dip much further because there are a lot of us who would be eager to take them in the $200-$225 range (I suspect far more of us than there are sellers willing to sell in the $200 range!).

My thoughts exactly. VGC is FAR superior to VDH on every single level, both for stay and value of owning IMO. Some will say VGC needs refurb and VDH is shiny and new. My new VDH room had a lot of signs of wear already, Im certain that this is due to use of cheaper less quality building materials than when they built VGC.

 

[Tatebeck]

I think the resale price may come down a bit but will hold very steady. With Disneyland forward passing there will be more to do at Disneyland making the area more popular. From the loose plans it looks like VDH will have more construction around it than VGC for the next 10 or so years. And part of the plan was that every new DVC property out there will be subject to the current occupancy tax that VDH and all the other hotels in the area use. Many DVC members hate the tax and having to pay it AFTER buying both the contract and paying dues. VGC gets a much lower tax and is included in the dues. I bet it will stay popular, which is why I bought in. It will be like the BCV of the west coast, the price staying higher than it probably should over time

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think the resale price may come down a bit but will hold very steady. With Disneyland forward passing there will be more to do at Disneyland making the area more popular. From the loose plans it looks like VDH will have more construction around it than VGC for the next 10 or so years. And part of the plan was that every new DVC property out there will be subject to the current occupancy tax that VDH and all the other hotels in the area use. Many DVC members hate the tax and having to pay it AFTER buying both the contract and paying dues. VGC gets a much lower tax and is included in the dues. I bet it will stay popular, which is why I bought in. It will be like the BCV of the west coast, the price staying higher than it probably should over time

The more I talk about VDH in these threads the more I talk myself into buying VGC. Now if could find a $225 deal like you did.

 

[tx911]

The more I talk about VDH in these threads the more I talk myself into buying VGC. Now if could find a $225 deal like you did.

If you buy a small contract, the price doesn’t matter as much.
(At least that’s what I told myself)

 

[VGCgroupie]

If you buy a small contract, the price doesn’t matter as much.
(At least that’s what I told myself)

This is what I told my husband. He is slowly getting on board.

 

[BrianLo]

For the record since I think the point is being a bit lost, I think the a fully declared VDH under the current market settings would settle into the 130-140’s. That’s what I’m partially deriving a 150% VGC premium out of.

Ya one can make the argument that long long term VGC still comes out ahead, but there’s a limit to what percentage of that is allowed to be priced in. Otherwise all contracts would be priced based near their lifetime rental values.

 

[JoshF]

The points chart for VGC differs from VDH in a way that offsets some of the TOT. This morning I looked up a reservation in December at both properties. VGC was 8 points more per night than VDH for a 1 BR. That will certainly offset some of the TOT, although the TOT is still higher.

 

[CastAStone]

I think the a fully declared VDH under the current market settings would settle into the 130-140’s

I think that’s too high, FWIW. I think it ultimately prices in line with something like AKV, at best. Resale restrictions+TOT+high quality resorts in walking distance at a fraction of the price = tough ask of someone to buy.

And I agree that as a result of the mere existence of VDH at that price, no matter how much better VGC is (and I just stayed there this year and I agree that it’s truly fantastic), VGC will experience negative resale price pressure, despite remaining the most expensive resort in the system.

 

[VGCgroupie]

If you buy a small contract, the price doesn’t matter as much.
(At least that’s what I told myself)

Wellll I put in an offer. We shall see. I will likely be posting in the rejected offers thread pretty soon.