I'll still put down my vote of MW 2023 being the first race weekend Disney holds (though I'd love to be wrong!) They can tie into the 30th anniversary for the marathon and 10th anniversary for Dopey.
If travel picks up in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, Disney will still be dealing with smaller capacities and increased cleaning requirements. They won't need runners and their families to increase visitor numbers at the parks.
I know I was pessimistic when we were speculating about 2020 and 2021 races saying pretty early that they wouldn't happen and was suprirsed that some people thought Wine and Dine 2020 had a good chance of happening. But now I am surprised that many of you are so pessimistic about 2022. Yes this is all speculation as none of us know what will happen in the next 6 - 12 months, but I guess now I am more the optimist about the future...
We are starting to hit almost 3 million vaccinations per day in the US and soon - by Spring or early Summer, everyone who wants a vaccine will have the ability to get one. I agree vaccines alone will not eradicate Covid 19 as there still will be many people who refuse to or medically cannot get it. But once everyone is eligible and it has had some time to prove its efficacy in the real world, who are we protecting by continuing to cancel, limit, distance, mask, etc? If things do not go back to normal with fully available, distributed and effective vaccines, they will never go back to normal because we will most likely never fully eradicate this disease.
And things are already picking up. Some states have already opened 100%. Other more restrictive states are also opening up - like my state - Connecticut which is opening most businesses to 100% by March 19 and outdoor venues to 50% by April with optimistically opening up fully by the Summer. I know Disney will remain cautious, but assuming vaccines continue to prove to be effective, they will open up to full capacity much sooner than later.
I also feel like the reverse from last Spring will happen. Just like things started to cancel, close and shut down once other things started to cancel, close and shut down, the same will happen with re-opening. Once a re-opening avalanche starts, it will be tough to keep things closed and canceled.
Well, like I said - all speculation. We will see, I guess...