Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[DonMacGregor]

I love how everyone on this thread (but me) has bought Riviera. Kind of tells you where the perspective is coming from.

Sorta like when everyone around you is telling you the earth is round, while you continue to insist that it’s flat?

 

[Jlo85]

Sorta like when everyone around you is telling you the earth is round, while you continue to insist that it’s flat?

I mean, I haven’t lost any money with my DVC contract, so you tell me who’s winning?

 

[Cubbiefan1734]

This has been my working assumption buying in to DVC. I bought home resorts to use without the intention of trading into any others. If the system changes, it really doesn't affect me.

I would agree that should be the working assumption in the current DVC reality. It just definitely was not the assumption before Riviera.

 

[havoc315]

I mean, I haven’t lost any money with my DVC contract, so you tell me who’s winning?

I haven't "lost" any money either? I guess I win?

 

[pianomanzano]

This thread is what happens when people use DVC and investment in the same sentence. People are apparently winners and losers based on what the theoretical value of their contracts are. It’s not a financial investment. Full stop. I know very the well that the money I poured into DVC would see no physical returns except for time with my family at a place we love. And if for some crazy reason I need to sell then I’ll sell at a loss. And if in the off chance @Jlo85 is right and it’s worth a penny, then I’ll rent out my points because by their own calculations rentals should go for $50/pt+ until the end of the contract. Now excuse me while I put my rose colored lenses on and stare out at the Skyliner off my balcony. Sure sound like a real loser, don’t I?

 

[DonMacGregor]

I would suggest that anyone who stresses over and laments the relative "value" of a DVC point, beyond its sole function as a means to reserve a hotel room, has lost something far more valuable than money. If that is your driving concern, you'd be better served by spending your cash elsewhere.

 

[Nursemanit]

I would suggest that anyone who stresses over and laments the relative "value" of a DVC point, beyond its sole function as a means to reserve a hotel room, has lost something far more valuable than money. If that is your driving concern, you'd be better served by spending your cash elsewhere.

I agree - I wonder how many of the people who worry about the value of a DVC point buy cars and worry about the value?

 

[Sandisw]

I love how everyone on this thread (but me) has bought Riviera. Kind of tells you where the perspective is coming from.

I'm really not doom and gloom, but y'all are wearing rose-colored glasses. And my guess if is most of you sold today, you'd be taking a loss. I think that if the retail restrictions weren't there, that might not be the case. It's a really nice resort, I'd buy it without restrictions.

Buying any direct resort today and selling within a few years will experience a loss. That is nothing new. Does the current info show that the RIV loss right now is slightly more than others in the past? Yes Is it extremely unusual? No

No one has said that restrictions may not be a factor in what it will be worth in the future or that it isn't playing some role now. But, doesn't every good analysis work to rule out as many other variables as it can in order to produce a valid and reliable outcome?

That is what some of us are trying to point out...its not that we have rose colored glasses, but rather that there is just too much other info right now...and past data from other resorts...that show that the current spread between resale and direct for RIV may not be completely and only the fault of the restrictions...

In terms of losing money? I bought 125 points resale for RIV in 2021 for $152/point. Today, I'd lose $8 per point if the average is $144. I bought VGF in March for $179/point direct for my 300 points and today I'd lose $5/point on that. Had I only added on the 150 that I originally planned @$197 point, my loss would be $24/point.

However, let's look at a resale buyer from last year to this year for those two resorts. Per DVC Resale Market, the average RIV resale value in Aug 2021 was $142 and the average resale in 2022 is $144...a net gain of $2/point.

The average resale buyer of VGF in Aug 2021 was $192...but is only $174 in Aug 2022..a net loss of $18. Selling today, the RIV resale buyer from 2021 is in a much stronger position than the VGF resale buyer from 2021. Matter of fact, resale buyers in 2021 at BLT, AKV, PVB, SSR, OKW and BRV would all be selling at a loss today when the RIV resale buyer would not.

Maybe what this shows us is that while RIV may loose a little bit more on the front end from direct to resale initially, it has the ability to remain constant and stable in a market that saw other popular resorts lose value in a year's time.

Of course, times change, things change, and what happened in the last year may not be what the future holds, but it certainly does show that, even with restrictions, RIV has the ability to keep a competitive resale value, just like the other resorts, if the conditions are right.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree - I wonder how many of the people who worry about the value of a DVC point buy cars and worry about the value?

That is such a great point. As I just posted, the last year has seen many resorts go down in resale value, so that resale buyer who is forced to sell after just one year, at many of the resorts, is losing money..

I sold my BLT contract to someone in 2020 for $189/point. If they were forced to sell today, it would be a pretty big loss for them. That is why going in to DVC thinking that you are guaranteed to get your money back on any of the resorts when and if you sell, simply because they don't have resale restrictions like RIV, could end up with disappointment.

DVC resale values have remained healthy for a lot of years but things are no longer the same but in the end, a loss is a loss, and whether VGF lost value on the resale market this year because it went back in active sales at such a low price, or RIV loses it a little bit more than the others initially, a loss is a loss. And, if a resort is down when you go to sell, regardless of what it did previously, you still end up with a loss.

In terms of RIV, I do think the next 3 years will give us a better idea of how things with restrictions will shake out because by then, we will know about VDH and Poly tower, and if both those have restrictions, its a pretty good indication that DVD is dug in for the long haul.

 

[RoseGold]

I mean, I haven’t lost any money with my DVC contract, so you tell me who’s winning?

The answer is Disney. It's always Disney.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I agree - I wonder how many of the people who worry about the value of a DVC point buy cars and worry about the value?

Cars are a dangerous topic in this household...like in a 12-step program way...

 

[RoseGold]

Timeshares as a whole are, for lack of a better word, a boomer concept. They've earned their negative reputation. Anyone my age is stunned that I am dumb enough to buy one, or even sit through a pitch. If Disney continues down this very timeshare-y path, they will be selling something, but it won't be the system I bought into.

Everyone in this thread is going to hold RIV forever, so no problem right? Not even sure why they care about the resale value, because it's not like they will ever need it. In that case, RIV is a great choice -- of course, assuming the gross resale people don't book up your whole hotel and make it impossible for you to book anything.

Sure, Disney can sell locked down points to suckers forever. I'll rent those points and be fine with it. I am not sure I would recommend DVC to anyone right now, with the direction the system is going. My data points are APs and resale restrictions. Both are incredibly anti-owner, and everyone seems to be cool with it.

 

[matt and beth]

This thread is what happens when people use DVC and investment in the same sentence. People are apparently winners and losers based on what the theoretical value of their contracts are. It’s not a financial investment. Full stop. I know very the well that the money I poured into DVC would see no physical returns except for time with my family at a place we love. And if for some crazy reason I need to sell then I’ll sell at a loss. And if in the off chance @Jlo85 is right and it’s worth a penny, then I’ll rent out my points because by their own calculations rentals should go for $50/pt+ until the end of the contract. Now excuse me while I put my rose colored lenses on and stare out at the Skyliner off my balcony. Sure sound like a real loser, don’t I?

Exactly! We got our purchase price back a few years ago when we sold a couple contracts. We looked at it as we got some sweet rooms for our dues. And some awesome memories!

 

[Jlo85]

I don’t really think there are winners or losers, but I will respond when people are rude or act like I’m insane.

DVC is bought for potential savings. Whether that’s via resale value or over rack rate, it’s all part of a broader wealth strategy. If you weren’t looking to save money, you wouldn’t buy it.

And neither of those savings are guaranteed. Dues may outpace rack rates, availability could dry up, another pandemic, WDW could burn down tomorrow. It’s an investment no matter how you look at it.

 

[Nursemanit]

Nope - not an investment - Just like cars or vacation homes that you use yourself are not investments. They are luxury purchases that we buy for the experience of owning not for future value or as a method to obtain income.

 

[Jlo85]

Nope - not an investment - Just like cars or vacation homes that you use yourself are not investments. They are luxury purchases that we buy for the experience of owning not for future value or as a method to obtain income.

I'd be sad if my luxury car died tomorrow. Maybe y'all are rich enough not to care, but then I don't think you'd be buying a timeshare.

 

[Cfabar1]

I don’t view purchasing as an investment to sell. I do view it as a way to ”prepay” for vacations, or at least to subsidize vacations… have a nicer room, multiple bedrooms, full kitchen (not just stovetop), etc.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I get a feeling there are a few people on here who would purchase an engagement ring based on what they might be able to sell it for on their tenth anniversary...

 

[RoseGold]

I get a feeling there are a few people on here who would purchase an engagement ring based on what they might be able to sell it for on their tenth anniversary...

And some would buy whatever is in the window on Main Street with the fancy lighting, LOL.

 

[DonMacGregor]

And some would buy whatever is in the window on Main Street with the fancy lighting, LOL.

Well, they have a really poor resizing and cleaning policy at the five and dime.