Future of Riveria

[Sandisw]

And then there is the Doomsday scenario.
As more and more people book at 11 months for the peak times, walking will became necessary. But this means that other times will be difficult to get at 11 months, because of the walkers, which means more people will start walking far in advance. Which will spread the problem even more. At some point, booking at 11 months will became extremely competitive every time of the year and getting a room anytime, even at 11 months, will require walking, picking up pieces after the walkers pass on or extreme luck.
Will it happen? I don't know. What I know is that if I owned a Riviera resale I would walk every stay I want quite far in advance. Why risk it?

I do own RIV resale and direct and I can tell you that even now, the SV studios are hard to get at 11 months so anyone owning is finding out pretty quickly that booking at 11 months is key.

Tower studios are even worse and there are very few resale buyers. On the flip side, though, if people are getting RIV resale for a nice price, then they can buy more points and end up with PV rooms...which are not going to be difficult to get if booking right at 11 months.

So, even without resale restrictions, those rooms are rough and one needs to own there to get them now, and the # of resale points is minuscule.

I do agree that anyone buying resale RIV does need to book at 11 months or risk not being able to get what one wants in room size, especially if travel is not flexible.

I still think a lot of resale RIV buyers will be people like me who have other points that can be used elsewhere or combined with RIV to help secure something.

 

[havoc315]

I believe that one of the drawbacks of Riviera-only owners is they will NEED to book at 11 months to get what they want, and so, somewhere down the line after sellout, getting a standard studio at 11 months is always going to be a competition, every booking day. This is what I’ve always believed the real drawback of the resale restrictions will be, and it won’t become apparent until sometime after sellout, when resale owners reach a critical mass. This will hamper all owners at the 11 month window, because direct owners will also have to compete with the 11-month booking behaviors of resale owners.

Re-sale buyers are a small minority of owners. It would take 20-30 years to get to any sort of "critical mass" that you suggest.
And the key to remember is that re-sale buyers can't trade IN to Riviera. Most people already book into their home resort at 11 months, with or without restrictions. And then look to change at 7 months.

So the only difference between Riviera and other resorts: There will be a few less people trading out at 7 months, and a few less people trading in.
At the 11 month mark, it's really no different than any other resort. You already need to book at 11 months to get a value room at AKV, and similarly to get a tower studio at RIV. But just like 1 bedrooms at AKV are easy to get, same with RIV preferred 1 bedrooms.

So the general rule of thumb reported is that about 1% of owners re-sell in a given year. So come the year 2043, maybe 20-25% of RIV owners can't trade out of RIV at the 7 month mark. Meanwhile, about 25%+ of non RIV DVC owners won't be able to trade in to RIV at the 7 month mark.

Net effect -- In 20 years, 20-25% less 7 month trading.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Riviera is also a giant resort in terms of # of points and if we know anything, the largest resorts wind up substantially more likely to have points traded out at 7 months than traded in. So if in 5-25 years things wind up tight at 11 months, wait until 7 months when a chunk of the 90%+ of owners who own direct trade their points out.

 

[ziravan]

Riviera is also a giant resort in terms of # of points and if we know anything, the largest resorts wind up substantially more likely to have points traded out at 7 months than traded in. So if in 5-25 years things wind up tight at 11 months, wait until 7 months when a chunk of the 90%+ of owners who own direct trade their points out.

I hope so.

If you’re right, then a 153-pt fixed week buyer has 153 points avail each year with possibly a fixed week being marginally more difficult to sell because people don’t understand it.

If my fears turn out to be correct, having a fixed week standard studio in the Fall would be a huge advantage and a premium resale buy.

As is being reported, it might already be a decent advantage because those rooms book at 11 months already.

In any case, it’s an alternative strategy to potentially maximize value that I wanted to mention in this thread in the purchase forum about Riviera.

As was reported upthread, it’s not a strategy for everyone because there just aren’t very many of those rooms avail for fixed weeks and some might already be selling out. It’s a niche strategy then.

 

[ziravan]

Personally, I like the standard views better than the “preferred” views because they tend to face the fireworks.

 

[BrianLa]

I agree. RIV will create an imbalance in the system with more points traded out of RIV at 7 months vs into other DVC resorts. Booking within the 7-11 month window will be even more necessary and I hate the idea of walking a reservation let alone for prolonged periods. Disney will be happy to sell the un-booked (points) RIV rooms for cash. Hopefully they continue to add new DVC resorts that are more desirable that spread the points across more properties. Also agree that one of the benefits of DVC and why people are willing to "invest" tens of thousands of dollars is that there is a healthy resale market. Creating 2 very different classes of ownership could jeopardize this. I know I would not have purchased the number of points I did if there was not such a robust resale market.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I hope so.

If you’re right, then a 153-pt fixed week buyer has 153 points avail each year with possibly a fixed week being marginally more difficult to sell because people don’t understand it.

If my fears turn out to be correct, having a fixed week standard studio in the Fall would be a huge advantage and a premium resale buy.

As is being reported, it might already be a decent advantage because those rooms book at 11 months already.

In any case, it’s an alternative strategy to potentially maximize value that I wanted to mention in this thread in the purchase forum about Riviera.

As was reported upthread, it’s not a strategy for everyone because there just aren’t very many of those rooms avail for fixed weeks and some might already be selling out. It’s a niche strategy then.

I agree there’s no downside to a FW and it’s a must have for a standard week in the fall, I just disagree with the negative future prognostication.

 

[Clemsondisfan]

That's an intriguing proposition, but honestly I think each resort resale is going to have restrictions that it can be used only at that resort. It'll be interesting to see how they handle this, and we should find out some more information when Poly2 comes out. Whenever they announce if its a new association or not lol.

I'm new to DVC and bought Poly resale as my first contract. I'll use it for the first time this fall. Very interested to see how the expansion works out.

 

[ziravan]

I agree there’s no downside to a FW and it’s a must have for a standard week in the fall, I just disagree with the negative future prognostication.

I mean, we bought Riviera.

It’s more like, hope for the best, plan for the worst.

I think a lot of people think about the resale restrictions in the current tense, do they hurt sales, are they hurting resales now…

My concern has always been how do things play out down the road of a 50 yr contract.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I have seen RIV listed at 130 resale for a smaller point contract. Agree RIV is beautiful, restrictions are impacting sales. CCV resale listing was 170 same size contract. Disclosure...this was only one site that I get email alerts as I have taken myself off most resale sites at this point.
Restrictions have stopped me from buying there, and I do think it has stopped others as well. I have been on the sidelines for resale, if it goes below 100 I will buy a small contract resale.

 

[Matty B13]

So what happens to resale value if even when you try to walk a reservation, you still can't get the days you want??? If this starts happening does RIV resale go to zero!

 

[Sandisw]

I have seen RIV listed at 130 resale for a smaller point contract. Agree RIV is beautiful, restrictions are impacting sales. CCV resale listing was 170 same size contract. Disclosure...this was only one site that I get email alerts as I have taken myself off most resale sites at this point.
Restrictions have stopped me from buying there, and I do think it has stopped others as well. I have been on the sidelines for resale, if it goes below 100 I will buy a small contract resale.

RIV, with restrictions, sold better than VGF for many months, until they had to make VGF less expensive than it.

So, I don’t think restrictions are having any meaningful impact on sales when they are priced well because even VGF, without them, couldn’t sell.

No question the buyer pool is smaller for RIV resale because it’s one resort, and plays some role..but it’s still getting more than other resorts that can trade to the L14.

But, those other near park resorts are now coming down in price and getting closer to RIV because ROFR isn’t in play…at least with RIV, that wasn’t playing any role

Now, I do think we will see where things settle for it in a few years when more contracts hit the market, and when we have more info about restrictions applying to VDH and Poly tower.

 

[RoseGold]

So what happens to resale value if even when you try to walk a reservation, you still can't get the days you want??? If this starts happening does RIV resale go to zero!

No, RIV still has value to professionals who rent out spec reservations, making the cheapest rooms tighter and tighter.

 

[Sandisw]

So what happens to resale value if even when you try to walk a reservation, you still can't get the days you want??? If this starts happening does RIV resale go to zero!

There is never going to be a time when you can’t book RIV using your points, if booking during home resort time, especially at 11 months. There is no guarantee for any resort that you will get a certain room size or view when you want it.

That exists now for AK CL, value, BW and BLT SV rooms and CCV studios. None of those resorts have restrctions.

PV rooms are not having an 11 month availability issue and I doubt they ever will.

The other piece that is in play is that there is nothing to prevent BVTC from changing the trading timeline for any resort. They could make it that new resorts like RIV eventually can’t be traded into until 4 months. It does not have to stay 7 months and it doesn’t have to be the same for every resort.

 

[ziravan]

There is never going to be a time when you can’t book RIV using your points, if booking during home resort time, especially at 11 months. There is no guarantee for any resort that you will get a certain room size or view when you want it.

That exists now for AK CL, value, BW and BLT SV rooms and CCV studios. None of those resorts have restrctions.

PV rooms are not having an 11 month availability issue and I doubt they ever will.

The other piece that is in play is that there is nothing to prevent BVTC from changing the trading timeline for any resort. They could make it that new resorts like RIV eventually can’t be traded into until 4 months. It does not have to stay 7 months and it doesn’t have to be the same for every resort.

Or. I believe the new rules for Riviera would allow for 11 months for blue cards, 9 Mos for resale and 7 for all others.

I believe all they must do is give resale an advantage over all others and not necessarily equal with direct buyers at the same resort.

This was discussed when the new restrictions first came out.

In THAT case, a deeded right to a 12 month booking for a resale buyer becomes a gold mine.

Not saying that would happen just that we were considering worst case scenarios.

 

[Sandisw]

Or. I believe the new rules for Riviera would allow for 11 months for blue cards, 9 Mos for resale and 7 for all others.

I believe all they must do is give resale an advantage over all others and not necessarily equal with direct buyers at the same resort.

This was discussed when the new restrictions first came out.

In THAT case, a deeded right to a 12 month booking for a resale buyer becomes a gold mine.

Not saying that would happen just that we were considering worst case scenarios.

They can not have different home resort rules for owners at the resort. The POS is clear on that aspect. No matter how you bought you have the same rights to book your home resort with the same terms.

So whether you have direct or resale RIV points, you can not have a different booking window and must always be given a one month advantage over those that trade in. My direct points at RIV can not be given a different rule than my resale RIV points.

BVTC does have the right to set the trading rules so they can make RIVs rules different than say VGF. But, they can’t make them different for individual resorts.

So, they can’t say that RIV owners can trade out at 9 months to other places, but other can’t trade in until 7 months…those trades need to be the same.

But, they can make trading in and out of RIV different than trading in and out of VGF. It doesn’t take restrictions to do that…heck, they could make the 11/7 to be 11/4 for every resort.

BVTC can also charge a fee for trades…which doesn’t have to apply to every resort…and when RIV was set up it was clear they can change restrictions but they can’t treat resale RIV points different than direct RIV points for the purposes of booking RIV….

 

[Royal Consort]

So what happens to resale value if even when you try to walk a reservation, you still can't get the days you want??? If this starts happening does RIV resale go to zero!

Hasn't lowered the value for CCV and people can't get studios there in the fall.

 

[sethschroeder]

Same goes for future properties if the restrictions continue. He told me that he didn't have any information on if they had done the math on that. Just stared at me.

What about all the resorts that people buy at pretty much only to stay there now?

In the end there are more rooms than their are points in the system for the year. If you think about missing out at 11 months for that first week of December then pretty much everywhere else is sparse as well even if you could switch resorts.

In the end around 1%-2% of points flip annually so in 20 years it still will not be a majority of points.

The risk is inside of 7 months when you start getting people to trade in to Riviera while you can no longer trade out.

Will it happen? I don't know. What I know is that if I owned a Riviera resale I would walk every stay I want quite far in advance. Why risk it?

You can say that about every primary resort (those close to a park) already though if you really want.

 

[sethschroeder]

I have seen RIV listed at 130 resale for a smaller point contract. Agree RIV is beautiful, restrictions are impacting sales. CCV resale listing was 170 same size contract.

During actives sales the pricing is a little different. CCV was around 25% off direct to start 2019 and RIV is around 35% off direct when comparing them.

Difference is RIV went from $188 to $217 (up 15.4%) while CCV when from $176 to $188 (6.8%) in its primary direct sales lifespan.

In the end most things point to RIV doing fairly similar but slightly lagging behind. You might say RIV is depressed an extra 5%-10% in any metric from the pricing on resale to how many direct points are being sold. Its something but nothing massive.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

RIV, with restrictions, sold better than VGF for many months, until they had to make VGF less expensive than it.

Agree it sold better, but at the time, RIV had better incentives that made it cheaper than VGF. We waffled between VGF or RIV but went with VGF. I think ultimately for many buyers it comes down to initial buy-in cost. VGF had its initial run, then slowed. RIV is better built resort than the VGF cheap hotel refurb. But VGF original was a home run. Curious about the new poly tower. I tend to think they just might add it to the original poly. It will still get in 40 years - which is all BCV had when new and it sold out fast. I think if RIV is not sold out by the time poly goes on sale - they may reassess the restrictions. If DVC wanted to bite into resale market, the blue card and extras are okay - but trading policies within the same system?? I don't own any other time share but as far as I know no other does that.