Future of Riveria

[tjkraz]

I bought in 2019, and I knew this was coming. But DVC already feels like a completely different product than I bought into. It is becoming more and more timeshare-y, by design. And, hey, if those other guys can sell trash, I'm sure DVC can keep those sales coming.

Not much has changed since 2019. The perk restrictions and Riviera resale restrictions existed back then. Main differences today are no APs and higher prices, the latter of which was to be expected.

If you're viewing DVC differently today, It's probably because you know it better than you did in 2019.

 

[Brian Noble]

If I buy Marriott resale and am stuck going to the same hotel at HHI every year, I might feel disappointed I can’t use my points to stay in Texas or China or wherever….

This is not how this works. Marriott Points purchased resale can be (and in fact must be) "washed" with a fairly modest fee, after which they are as if you bought them from the developer. Marriott Weeks have always been usable only at their resort or in the Interval International exchange system, no matter who you buy it from. There are a handful of exceptions to the latter (the Florida Club Weeks are one) but they are rare.

The more relevant comparison is Diamond, where resales are removed from The Club and relegated to the underlying Trust, and there are generally several resorts in each of those Trusts. Even there, resale points can be brought back into The Club with another retail purchase. As far as I know, Disney is the only one that does not have any way to bring a resale back into the full system.

 

[RoseGold]

Not much has changed since 2019. The perk restrictions and Riviera resale restrictions existed back then. Main differences today are no APs and higher prices, the latter of which was to be expected.

If you're viewing DVC differently today, It's probably because you know it better than you did in 2019.

That's for sure, LOL. But eliminating APs eliminated the kind of DVC-er I cared about: me. I mean I made it in while they were for sale, but my whole case for buying DVC relied on APs. And I didn't think they would go away. That wasn't even on my radar. I thought they might be restricted, or more expensive, but I didn't think they would be gone.

I would feel even worse about it if I had bought direct.

I still don't understand why there's no on-site only AP. It's self-limiting, it can't overcrowd, and it's people who are putting money in the mouse's pockets.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

This is not how this works. Marriott Points purchased resale can be (and in fact must be) "washed" with a fairly modest fee, after which they are as if you bought them from the developer. Marriott Weeks have always been usable only at their resort or in the Interval International exchange system, no matter who you buy it from. There are a handful of exceptions to the latter (the Florida Club Weeks are one) but they are rare.

The more relevant comparison is Diamond, where resales are removed from The Club and relegated to the underlying Trust, and there are generally several resorts in each of those Trusts. Even there, resale points can be brought back into The Club with another retail purchase. As far as I know, Disney is the only one that does not have any way to bring a resale back into the full system.

Not to give you a big head, but I feel like I learn something from almost every one of your posts.

 

[Clemsondisfan]

This isn't a bad situation for resale purchasers. They are already reselling at a discount (assuming they aren't being blocked by ROFR). If you didn't want to use them at RIV only, you could rent them out and stay elsewhere with the income. Additionally, this system builds in some competition reduction for previous purchasers of older resorts. They will not have to compete for booking windows with RIV resale buyers, which is already difficult at the 7 month window. Hopefully, as another poster mentioned, there will emerge a new market for resale buyers in which they can stay at RIV and newer, but not legacy properties.

 

[TheLyinKing]

This isn't a bad situation for resale purchasers. They are already reselling at a discount (assuming they aren't being blocked by ROFR). If you didn't want to use them at RIV only, you could rent them out and stay elsewhere with the income. Additionally, this system builds in some competition reduction for previous purchasers of older resorts. They will not have to compete for booking windows with RIV resale buyers, which is already difficult at the 7 month window. Hopefully, as another poster mentioned, there will emerge a new market for resale buyers in which they can stay at RIV and newer, but not legacy properties.

That's an intriguing proposition, but honestly I think each resort resale is going to have restrictions that it can be used only at that resort. It'll be interesting to see how they handle this, and we should find out some more information when Poly2 comes out. Whenever they announce if its a new association or not lol.

 

[kilik64]

Not to give you a big head, but I feel like I learn something from almost every one of your posts.

Dude needs to teach a timeshare 101 class.

 

[ziravan]

My wife and I toured the Riviera and it’s now one of our favorite resorts. We are considering a DVC membership at the RIV.
What are the resale restrictions being discussed?

If you buy, ask for a guaranteed (aka fixed week or DVC now calls them “favorite” weeks) contract.

We bought a week 44 guaranteed 153 pt week 44 standard studio contract plus a 50 pt contract because we wanted enough points to book 5 nights in a standard 1Br each year.

We never plan to use the guaranteed week, but if we sell, a guaranteed booking each year for a resale buyer plus a small point contract will both sell well.

Our entire reason for buying a fixed week plus small point contract was to hedge our ability to resale - which we never intend to do.

We think it’s a great hedge strategy and did the same with Poly (week 44 Lake View studio).

10 yrs from now, if it gets hard to book standard studios at 11 months because all the resale Riviera owners are trying to do the same thing, our resale buyer - if we ever resale - will have a distinct advantage, and that will add value to the contract we hope.

In the meantime, we shouldn’t have a problem at 11 months booking a 1Br and if that ever becomes a problem, WE have a fixed week as a backup and just like with Poly, we can make a studio work.

(Both of our contracts are week 44 because over time we believe the first full week of Nov will increase in value. Our 168 pt Poly contract already costs 185 to book now. Both our fixed weeks are week 44 but we’d move 1 (annual trip) to spring if booking got hard - depending on which one was easier to move to spring. Our purpose was one Spring and one Fall trip each year anyway (with a few AKV resale SAP in between).

 

[Royal Consort]

If you buy, ask for a guaranteed contract.

We bought a week 44 guaranteed 152 pt week 44 standard studio contract plus a 50 pt contract because we wanted enough points to book 5 nights in a standard 1Br each year.

We never plan to use the guaranteed week, but if we sell, a guaranteed booking each year for a resale buyer plus a small point contract will both sell well.

Our entire reason for buying a fixed week plus small point contract was to hedge our ability to resale - which we never intend to do.

We think it’s a great hedge strategy and did the same with Poly (week 44 Lake View studio).

10 yrs from now, if it gets hard to book standard studios at 11 months because all the resale Riviera owners are trying to do the same thing, our resale buyer - if we ever resale - will have a distinct advantage, and that will add value to the contract we hope.

In the meantime, we shouldn’t have a problem at 11 months booking a 1Br and if that ever becomes a problem, WE have a fixed week as a backup and just like with Poly, we can make a studio work.

(Both of our contracts are week 44 because over time we believe the first full week of Nov will increase in value. Our 168 pt Poly contract already costs 181 to book now. Both our fixed weeks are week 44 but we’d move 1 (annual trip) to spring if booking got hard - depending on which one was easier to move to spring. Our purpose was one Spring and one Fall trip each year anyway (with a few AKV resale SAP in between).

I am going to counter this advice. There was a point where fixed weeks were a hedge against reallocation for the Fall/Winter season, however, this is has been obliterated when the fixed week chart was revised for all resorts in 2022. For example, the above post quoted the points required for fixed week 44 being 152 points. If you book this yourself it's going to cost you 139 points. I am unconvinced that the point chart will increase to such an extent that the fixed weeks will become competitive. In fact, I think Disney knew this and therefore adjusted the fixed week point chart accordingly. I also own a fixed week at Riviera which I purchased before the resort opened. The fixed week costs me less than the current point chart (it was also 22 points cheaper than the above post). Disney closed the loophole.

 

[ziravan]

I am going to counter this advice. There was a point where fixed weeks were a hedge against reallocation for the Fall/Winter season, however, this is has been obliterated when the fixed week chart was revised for all resorts in 2022. For example, the above post quoted the points required for fixed week 44 being 152 points. If you book this yourself it's going to cost you 139 points. I am unconvinced that the point chart will increase to such an extent that the fixed weeks will become competitive. In fact, I think Disney knew this and therefore adjusted the fixed week point chart accordingly. I also own a fixed week at Riviera which I purchased before the resort opened. The fixed week costs me less than the current point chart (it was also 22 points cheaper than the above post). Disney closed the loophole.

There’s more going on than a hedge against reallocation. My advice is a hedge on resale value anyway.

A fixed week is supposed to cost 10% more to use so that, among other things, DVC could re-allocate their charts and not have to cough up points (like they would now for me with my Poly fixed week), but also, so using the fixed week would be a premium.

But.

IF the week is cheaper - and available - at the 11 month window, you can always cancel and rebook at the cheaper cost.

In that case, you’d only need the premium if the room wasn’t available at 11 months.

I believe that one of the drawbacks of Riviera-only owners is they will NEED to book at 11 months to get what they want, and so, somewhere down the line after sellout, getting a standard studio at 11 months is always going to be a competition, every booking day. This is what I’ve always believed the real drawback of the resale restrictions will be, and it won’t become apparent until sometime after sellout, when resale owners reach a critical mass. This will hamper all owners at the 11 month window, because direct owners will also have to compete with the 11-month booking behaviors of resale owners.

In that case, having a fixed week will be a bargain, because that 10% will also cover the savings of not having to book a premium room to get anything,

Also. If you don’t ever use the fixed week, you get the points, so it costs you nothing to buy one if you’re buying 150 pts anyway - which most new Riviera owners are.

There is no downside. If the room is avail at 11 months, cancel and rebook. If you want something else, cancel and use the points elsewhere. The guarantee only has value if it’s needed to secure the room, and IN that case, it will be an immense value. I believe that as there are more resale Riviera-only users booking at 11 months to ensure they get what they want, this will almost certainly be the case for standard studios at 11 months once resale owners hit a critical mass, and that’s why it’s a great hedge for Riviera.

 

[ziravan]

My specific advice if you’re buying Riviera as a new buyer with a 150 pt minimum buy is that you buy 153 points as a fixed week in weeks 40-46 standard studio, whether you intend to ever use that fixed week or not.

If you don’t use the fixed week, essentially you have a 153 point contract. No harm, no foul.

The guarantee though, guarantees a resale buyer of your contract, who can only use it to book Riviera, a Fall standard studio every year, and, IF booking standard studios becomes a problem at 11 months, that would be a premium resale contract.

More specifically, I’d focus on weeks 43-46 (last week of October; 1st 3 weeks of Nov). I chose week 44 because it overlaps Oct/Nov. Sometimes, MNSSHP, sometimes MVMCP, rarely, both. Plus that’s a run weekend so some people would want it for that reason. Also - Jersey Week (when NJ public schools are closed for teacher inservice) and some would want it for that. And always F&W festival. It’s a great mix that week.

Just to finish the thought if you aren’t familiar with fixed weeks. For a 10% premium, you are automatically booked into your fixed room at 12 months out each year, before the room opens to the 11 month window. You can cancel this and get the points, including the point premium and use those points how you wish. You only pay the premium for the room if you keep the 12 month booking. You can even cancel and rebook the same room at 11 months at the non-premium point cost - if it’s available. Buying a 153 point fixed week gives you that booking - OR 153 points. So, it’s always at least a 153 point contract and if the rooms are hard to get, then essentially you’ve “pre-walked” the room.

 

[Brian Noble]

Dude needs to teach a timeshare 101 class.

Just come hang out on TUG. Most of what I know I learned there.

 

[zavandor]

View attachment 741837

My specific advice if you’re buying Riviera as a new buyer with a 150 pt minimum buy is that you buy 153 points as a fixed week in weeks 40-46 standard studio, whether you intend to ever use that fixed week or not.

If you don’t use the fixed week, essentially you have a 153 point contract. No harm, no foul.

The guarantee though, guarantees a resale buyer of your contract, who can only use it to book Riviera, a Fall standard studio every year, and, IF booking standard studios becomes a problem at 11 months, that would be a premium resale contract.

More specifically, I’d focus on weeks 43-46 (last week of October; 1st 3 weeks of Nov). I chose week 44 because it overlaps Oct/Nov. Sometimes, MNSSHP, sometimes MVMCP, rarely, both. Plus that’s a run weekend so some people would want it for that reason. Also - Jersey Week (when NJ public schools are closed for teacher inservice) and some would want it for that. And always F&W festival. It’s a great mix that week.

Just to finish the thought if you aren’t familiar with fixed weeks. For a 10% premium, you are automatically booked into your fixed room at 12 months out each year, before the room opens to the 11 month window. You can cancel this and get the points, including the point premium and use those points how you wish. You only pay the premium for the room if you keep the 12 month booking. You can even cancel and rebook the same room at 11 months at the non-premium point cost - if it’s available. Buying a 153 point fixed week gives you that booking - OR 153 points. So, it’s always at least a 153 point contract and if the rooms are hard to get, then essentially you’ve “pre-walked” the room.

That's a great explanation. Fixed weeks are yet not well understood by many "casual" DVC owners. I remember the first time a fixed week was on offer resale, its price was reduced to the point it sold for less than an equivalent sized contract. People think you can only use the fixed week for that week.
As you said, there is really no drawback to purchasing a fixed week, if you intend to buy that amount of points anyway.

 

[ziravan]

That's a great explanation. Fixed weeks are yet not well understood by many "casual" DVC owners. I remember the first time a fixed week was on offer resale, its price was reduced to the point it sold for less than an equivalent sized contract. People think you can only use the fixed week for that week.
As you said, there is really no drawback to purchasing a fixed week, if you intend to buy that amount of points anyway.

Both of my direct contracts are fixed weeks. In 2015, we decided that buying a fixed week for Poly was a great hedge against the bungalows being point sucks against only studios. At that time, the first two weeks of Dec were most popular but we decided that, over a 50 yr horizon, it was likely that the first week of Nov would get some love, so we chose week 44 which cost 153 pts to book when Poly opened so 168 pt contract. That week has indeed been given some love, reallocated to make it more expensive so that it now costs 185 pts to book but our 168 pt contract can still book that week each year.

Plus, depending on how Poly2 works out, if it’s the same association, then having a fixed week for the relatively rare Lake Views may be necessary if a whole lot more points are chasing them. So another way that hedge may play out.

We believe a different dynamic required the fixed week hedge for Riviera as it addresses our concerns about the resale restrictions and our primary concern is how it will motivate resale buyers to book at exactly 11 months, especially for standard studios. If all you can book is Riviera then you don’t have a 7-month window and THAT will make the 11-months a resale owner’s ONLY window to get an advantage over other point users. Once resale owners adopt a “book at 11-months at all costs” mentality, the need to do so will be one universal for some rooms and the most likely rooms to be affected after tower studios (that can’t be bought fixed): standard studios.

My DW loves Riviera but the resale restrictions concerned me. The fixed week provided enough of a hedge against my chief concern with the restrictions that we sold our BCV contract and bought Riviera. Plus, used to be the incentives didn’t apply to fixed weeks so you had to give up the incentives and that’s a big deal. About a year ago, DVC started allowing the incentives to be applied to fixed week and with that hurdle now removed, there really is no downside.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

If all you can book is Riviera then you don’t have a 7-month window and THAT will make the 11-months a resale owner’s ONLY window to get an advantage over other point users. Once resale owners adopt a “book at 11-months at all costs” mentality, the need to do so will be one universal for some rooms and the most likely rooms to be affected after tower studios (that can’t be bought fixed): standard studios.

It seems pretty likely to me that Standard Studios will become (are already?) “must book at 11 months” no matter what because there simply aren’t enough of them, and because many people seem to prefer the standard views to the preferred views.

But the long term impact of resale contracts inability to trade out will be offset (or likely even more than offset) by resale buyers of other resorts inability to trade in. Riviera has less than 1/12 of all DVC points assigned to it, and other resorts have a huge head start on reselling, even just since Riviera opened. I wouldn’t worry about someday in the future getting locked out of any rooms at 11 months that you wouldn’t normally be locked out of at 11 months at any DVC (e.g. studios in early December), except for rooms that are already in short supply (standard studios).

 

[ziravan]

It seems pretty likely to me that Standard Studios will become (are already?) “must book at 11 months” no matter what because there simply aren’t enough of them, and because many people seem to prefer the standard views to the preferred views.

But the long term impact of resale contracts inability to trade out will be offset (or likely even more than offset) by resale buyers of other resorts inability to trade in. Riviera has less than 1/12 of all DVC points assigned to it, and other resorts have a huge head start on reselling, even just since Riviera opened. I wouldn’t worry about someday in the future getting locked out of any rooms at 11 months that you wouldn’t normally be locked out of at 11 months at any DVC (e.g. studios in early December), except for rooms that are already in short supply (standard studios).

I agree that there will be a balance of others not being able to trade-in with Riviera not being able to trade out. But. For every “can’t trade in at the 7-month window” that you’re losing, you’re gaining a “the ONLY booking window I have is at 11-month” Riviera resale owner.

Over time, this will initially trade pressure at the 7-month window for added pressure at the 11-month window. As pressure is added at 11-months however, that’ll leave less and less avail at 7.

Right now, for the system as a whole, I don’t start to worry about point usability until about 5 months out. Even at 5 months, I can typically find something I want. So. My pressure point is set even lower than the 7 month window. If all I can book is Riviera, and the ONLY window I have for a competitive advantage is the 11 month window, I would feel pressure to book then. As resale owners become 20, 30, 40% of all Riviera owners, that will change behaviors for everybody.

Eventually, for resorts with these restrictions, I believe the 7 month window will be all but worthless as all the indigenous owners will be forced to book at 11 months.

Maybe some of those direct owners trade out the days they booked at 11 months when the 7 month window opens and maybe that’ll create some limited avail at 7 months, but only if you’re right there looking when that reservation is released. It’ll be like lucking into a Space 220 reservation and certainly not a consistent 7-month strategy.

 

[RoseGold]

Just come hang out on TUG. Most of what I know I learned there.

TUGS has some wisdom for sure, but the greatest pupil is Brian, we can all agree.

 

[shoegal9]

I believe that one of the drawbacks of Riviera-only owners is they will NEED to book at 11 months to get what they want, and so, somewhere down the line after sellout, getting a standard studio at 11 months is always going to be a competition, every booking day. This is what I’ve always believed the real drawback of the resale restrictions will be, and it won’t become apparent until sometime after sellout, when resale owners reach a critical mass. This will hamper all owners at the 11 month window, because direct owners will also have to compete with the 11-month booking behaviors of resale owners.

This is my main concern. My husband and I were interested in RIV direct points but I straight up told our guide that we are concerned about availability 20 years down the road when there are tons of resale RIV owners who can only stay there. Fighting at the 11 month window for anything- or having to walk a simple reservation.

Same goes for future properties if the restrictions continue. He told me that he didn't have any information on if they had done the math on that. Just stared at me.

 

[zavandor]

I believe that one of the drawbacks of Riviera-only owners is they will NEED to book at 11 months to get what they want, and so, somewhere down the line after sellout, getting a standard studio at 11 months is always going to be a competition, every booking day. This is what I’ve always believed the real drawback of the resale restrictions will be, and it won’t become apparent until sometime after sellout, when resale owners reach a critical mass. This will hamper all owners at the 11 month window, because direct owners will also have to compete with the 11-month booking behaviors of resale owners.

And then there is the Doomsday scenario.
As more and more people book at 11 months for the peak times, walking will became necessary. But this means that other times will be difficult to get at 11 months, because of the walkers, which means more people will start walking far in advance. Which will spread the problem even more. At some point, booking at 11 months will became extremely competitive every time of the year and getting a room anytime, even at 11 months, will require walking, picking up pieces after the walkers pass on or extreme luck.
Will it happen? I don't know. What I know is that if I owned a Riviera resale I would walk every stay I want quite far in advance. Why risk it?

 

[Sandisw]

Both of my direct contracts are fixed weeks. In 2015, we decided that buying a fixed week for Poly was a great hedge against the bungalows being point sucks against only studios. At that time, the first two weeks of Dec were most popular but we decided that, over a 50 yr horizon, it was likely that the first week of Nov would get some love, so we chose week 44 which cost 153 pts to book when Poly opened so 168 pt contract. That week has indeed been given some love, reallocated to make it more expensive so that it now costs 185 pts to book but our 168 pt contract can still book that week each year.

Plus, depending on how Poly2 works out, if it’s the same association, then having a fixed week for the relatively rare Lake Views may be necessary if a whole lot more points are chasing them. So another way that hedge may play out.

We believe a different dynamic required the fixed week hedge for Riviera as it addresses our concerns about the resale restrictions and our primary concern is how it will motivate resale buyers to book at exactly 11 months, especially for standard studios. If all you can book is Riviera then you don’t have a 7-month window and THAT will make the 11-months a resale owner’s ONLY window to get an advantage over other point users. Once resale owners adopt a “book at 11-months at all costs” mentality, the need to do so will be one universal for some rooms and the most likely rooms to be affected after tower studios (that can’t be bought fixed): standard studios.

My DW loves Riviera but the resale restrictions concerned me. The fixed week provided enough of a hedge against my chief concern with the restrictions that we sold our BCV contract and bought Riviera. Plus, used to be the incentives didn’t apply to fixed weeks so you had to give up the incentives and that’s a big deal. About a year ago, DVC started allowing the incentives to be applied to fixed week and with that hurdle now removed, there really is no downside.

The only piece I will add is that it has been reported that some of those popular weeks that you mention are sold out of favorite weeks for the SV studio.

They can only sell up to 35% of the rooms in one category...and they don't have to meet that number. So, one will need to find out if they can even get them anymore.