Future of Riveria

[Sandisw]

Agree it sold better, but at the time, RIV had better incentives that made it cheaper than VGF. We waffled between VGF or RIV but went with VGF. I think ultimately for many buyers it comes down to initial buy-in cost. VGF had its initial run, then slowed. RIV is better built resort than the VGF cheap hotel refurb. But VGF original was a home run. Curious about the new poly tower. I tend to think they just might add it to the original poly. It will still get in 40 years - which is all BCV had when new and it sold out fast. I think if RIV is not sold out by the time poly goes on sale - they may reassess the restrictions. If DVC wanted to bite into resale market, the blue card and extras are okay - but trading policies within the same system?? I don't own any other time share but as far as I know no other does that.

It then proves that price and other factors are much more important to buyers than the restrctions…that was more my point.

So, DVD knows that restricted resorts can sell against non restricted ones as long as they price it well.

And, even the current numbers put the two pretty even. But, it also shows that a non restricted resort doesn’t sell well either if it isn’t priced to high. VGF sales, other than the first few months, have not been good and they don’t have restrictions.

That is why I think they will stick with restrictions. RIV had a lot of points to sell and the pandemic and current economic conditions are not helping tings.

I don’t think RIV needs to sell out prior to Poly tower because the data doesn’t support it is restrictions that are impacting the sales. If they were that big of a deal, it would have never had done so well against VGF…double the points sold…when the price difference wasnt that huge on an average 200 point contract.

 

[tjkraz]

I agree. RIV will create an imbalance in the system with more points traded out of RIV at 7 months vs into other DVC resorts. Booking within the 7-11 month window will be even more necessary and I hate the idea of walking a reservation let alone for prolonged periods. Disney will be happy to sell the un-booked (points) RIV rooms for cash.

This is silly. Do you really think that the entire DVC system was perfectly balanced until little 'ole Riviera came along to throw things out of whack?

Breakage comes into play 60 days prior to arrival. Right now, go look at availability for the end of April and into May. You'll see the same trends at Riviera as exist at the likes of Bay Lake Tower and Grand Floridian. Even Poly still has some studios available on certain nights.

Meanwhile resorts like Saratoga, Old Key West and Kidani have a lot more availability than Riviera across the board. Boulder Ridge and Copper Creek have many nights available in one bedroom villas. Anecdotally, Riviera is faring better than many other resorts with respect to rooms being fully booked on points.

 

[BrianLa]

This is silly. Do you really think that the entire DVC system was perfectly balanced until little 'ole Riviera came along to throw things out of whack?

Breakage comes into play 60 days prior to arrival. Right now, go look at availability for the end of April and into May. You'll see the same trends at Riviera as exist at the likes of Bay Lake Tower and Grand Floridian. Even Poly still has some studios available on certain nights.

Meanwhile resorts like Saratoga, Old Key West and Kidani have a lot more availability than Riviera across the board. Boulder Ridge and Copper Creek have many nights available in one bedroom villas. Anecdotally, Riviera is faring better than many other resorts with respect to rooms being fully booked on points.

This was in response to 20 years out when there are more resorts with similar restrictions and more resale contracts that can’t book RIV or future properties You can already see this with the “less desirable” resorts such as OKW and SSR. Those resorts end up being the last booked up. And they can be booked up by every Disney Vacation Club owner unlike RIV and future resorts.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

It was a ground up build, but they knocked down the north garden view rooms at the CR to build it. So, in that sense, it was removal of cash rooms to a DVC building...

Interesting, so there used to be a Garden Wing where BLT is now in addition to the other Garden Wing?

 

[Bjaiken77]

I wanted to hate Riviera because of the restrictions, but it’s probably my favorite resort on property. I would buy more points if they got rid of the restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting, so there used to be a Garden Wing where BLT is now in addition to the other Garden Wing?

Yup!

 

[tjkraz]

This was in response to 20 years out when there are more resorts with similar restrictions and more resale contracts that can’t book RIV or future properties You can already see this with the “less desirable” resorts such as OKW and SSR. Those resorts end up being the last booked up. And they can be booked up by every Disney Vacation Club owner unlike RIV and future resorts.

Every owner needs a place to land if they’re going to use their points. In the most extreme illustration where everyone is bound to their Home resort, Riviera is still booked year-round with Riviera owners using their points.

But that extreme situation will never come to be. In reality, there will always be tens-of-millions of direct points which have access to the entire system at 7 months. As always, people will decide where they wish to stay by weighing cost, location and other aspects of all available resorts to which they have access.

 

[zavandor]

Every owner needs a place to land if they’re going to use their points. In the most extreme illustration where everyone is bound to their Home resort, Riviera is still booked year-round with Riviera owners using their points.

But that extreme situation will never come to be. In reality, there will always be tens-of-millions of direct points which have access to the entire system at 7 months. As always, people will decide where they wish to stay by weighing cost, location and other aspects of all available resorts to which they have access.

I think the worry of the doomsday scenario is not that there isn't enough space for everyone, but the possible panic. 300 people walking reservations for December starting in June are enough to wreck the whole system.
Will it happen? Who knows, but I've seen crazier things done at WDW (do anyone remember the racket of the Cinderella breakfast reservations?)

 

[ziravan]

Every owner needs a place to land if they’re going to use their points. In the most extreme illustration where everyone is bound to their Home resort, Riviera is still booked year-round with Riviera owners using their points.

But that extreme situation will never come to be. In reality, there will always be tens-of-millions of direct points which have access to the entire system at 7 months. As always, people will decide where they wish to stay by weighing cost, location and other aspects of all available resorts to which they have access.

The concern is that, because of all that additional access at 7 months, in order to ensure their points usage, every RIV resale owner that didn’t plan to bank will be booking prior to the 7 month window and those won’t be placeholder reservations against other opportunities at the 7 month windows; those will be final reservations.

And as that clamor pushes the 11 month window (the only window resale owners have) - and it almost certainly will for standard studios and 2brs - it’ll bleed over onto other categories like preferred studios, etc.

Then. In THAT case, direct owners will join in the “book at 11-months or lose out” FOMO.

It’ll be a negative feedback loop.

This has always been my resale restriction fear, and the extent won’t be evident until 15-20 yrs into the 50 yr contract.

I bought anyway because it’s a fantastic resort. But. I hedged my bets.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think the worry of the doomsday scenario is not that there isn't enough space for everyone, but the possible panic. 300 people walking reservations for December starting in June are enough to wreck the whole system.
Will it happen? Who knows, but I've seen crazier things done at WDW (do anyone remember the racket of the Cinderella breakfast reservations?)

If walking is breaking the system, Disney will be incentivized to do something about the walking. In any case all the fixed weeks will screw up all the walking. And more to the point, if things are that insane, people will just book a different week or room type, and Disney will adjust the point charts.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I think the worry of the doomsday scenario is not that there isn't enough space for everyone, but the possible panic. 300 people walking reservations for December starting in June are enough to wreck the whole system.
Will it happen? Who knows, but I've seen crazier things done at WDW (do anyone remember the racket of the Cinderella breakfast reservations?)

Ugh. I hate this conversation. Whenever people start talking RIV and how it will all play out, it reminds me of how subpar Disney management really is now.

 

[Yankee626]

I will say this about Riviera ; even with the Resale restrictions at least its a beautiful resort in a good location unlike SSR which is a total bust. That was a huge DVC mistake. Its the largest resort which added millions of points to the system and nobody wants to stay there. Ridiculous mistake. You could add Vero beach to that too.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Ugh. I hate this conversation. Whenever people start talking RIV and how it will all play out, it reminds me of how subpar Disney management really is now.

Take heart. The RIV is just fine. There are a ton of Riviera nay-sayers, doomsayers, and haters on these boards. Their predictions of the future are about on par with DVC toilet paper. The Riviera Resort is a beautiful resort, directly connected to two theme parks, is selling just fine given the hurdles, and is "performing" similarly to most other resorts; I see no reason why any of that changes down the road.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the worry of the doomsday scenario is not that there isn't enough space for everyone, but the possible panic. 300 people walking reservations for December starting in June are enough to wreck the whole system.
Will it happen? Who knows, but I've seen crazier things done at WDW (do anyone remember the racket of the Cinderella breakfast reservations?)

And that is different than what people are doing with AKV CL or value? BWV SV studios?Or VGC? None with restrictions.

The tower and SV rooms are tough now…and it’s mostly direct points booking. The increase in resale points won’t change that SV is popular.

Whether it’s resale or not, booking during home resort priority is booking during home resort prioriy.

Now, where the system could change is at the 7 month mark where fewer owners will be leaving…but since the direct points will always be substantially more than the resale points, I just don’t think it will be a big deal.

So, in that respect, the trading out maybe impacted down the road for owners. But, how long will it even take to get to that point is at least 20 years aaway, and even then, you may be looking at 20% of the points resale points…not to mention that if the resale value does take a nosedive, many owners might simply keep it and use it…or do rentals instead.

I just don’t see resale restrictions making a huge impact for RIV ownees buying to use at RIV….

And, if restrictions gear more buyers to direct and away from resale that alone will limit the % of resale points at any resort.

 

[RichVIII]

And honestly, it seems like folks buying BCV and BWV points are almost acting as restricted points at those resorts since they intend to only (or mostly) use them at their home resort.

 

[zavandor]

And that is different than what people are doing with AKV CL or value? BWV SV studios?Or VGC? None with restrictions.

The tower and SV rooms are tough now…and it’s mostly direct points booking. The increase in resale points won’t change that SV is popular.

Whether it’s resale or not, booking during home resort priority is booking during home resort prioriy.

Now, where the system could change is at the 7 month mark where fewer owners will be leaving…but since the direct points will always be substantially more than the resale points, I just don’t think it will be a big deal.

So, in that respect, the trading out maybe impacted down the road for owners. But, how long will it even take to get to that point is at least 20 years aaway, and even then, you may be looking at 20% of the points resale points…not to mention that if the resale value does take a nosedive, many owners might simply keep it and use it…or do rentals instead.

I just don’t see resale restrictions making a huge impact for RIV ownees buying to use at RIV….

And, if restrictions gear more buyers to direct and away from resale that alone will limit the % of resale points at any resort.

But you don't get AKV value you can still get standard which is still competitive priced. Or BLT lake or BWV garden. The difference with Riviera is that there is no plan B at 7 months, not even SSR preferred.
Would you buy a resort where every room is as difficult to book as AKV value?
Again, I'm not saying it'll happen. But it could.

 

[Sandisw]

But you don't get AKV value you can still get standard which is still competitive priced. Or BLT lake or BWV garden. The difference with Riviera is that there is no plan B at 7 months, not even SSR preferred.
Would you buy a resort where every room is as difficult to book as AKV value?
Again, I'm not saying it'll happen. But it could.

Anyone buying resale RIV knows upfront there is no plan B if they wait too long to book…but it is still possible to get RIV at 7 months…just may not be be the room size you want.

To me, any owner of restricted points needs to book during home resort priority and at 11 months to have the best options. Anyone who waits May struggle…and of course, restricted points will cause that owner to have less flexibility if a change happens,

I don’t think anyone argues that aspect. But all those are on the shoulders of the owners of those points, not on the owners as a whole.

You simply won’t ever have a situation that every room at the resort will be difficult to book every day of the year….simply because you might have 20% of the points good only there..RIV is large enough to handle things..

And as I mentioned, there are a lot of solutions DVC can implement. Change the 7 month window to 5 months…charge a fee for RIV resale owners to “trade up” to another resort for the specific trip if nothing is there for last minute use of points.

ETA: There is also nothing to suggest that owners of RIV…direct points…will be any less willing to trade out at 7 months than owners of the other resorts….which will open things up for movement, especially, since the # of points trading in is getting smaller and smaller all the time with the change of ownership of L14 resorts.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I wanted to hate Riviera because of the restrictions, but it’s probably my favorite resort on property. I would buy more points if they got rid of the restrictions.

I agree, I also wanted to hate it, and almost purchased points there after staying...Opted to add on VGF instead - but will wait for resale RIV.

 

[Brian Noble]

It’ll be a negative feedback loop.

There are (at least) two reasons why I think the doomsday scenario doesn't happen.

First, it's just not the case that everyone can plan at 11 months. Some people can, sure. But, not everyone can or will. Riviera has a decent room mix. There are 210 studios in total between dedicated and lockoff, with about 280 larger rooms. If you absolutely need a Tower Studio (or a Standard View) then maybe things are hard much of the time. And yes, it's inconceivable to most of us that someone would not be online right at 8AM, 11 months to the day before a vacation that we might or might not take. But most people just don't think about this the way the average DISer does.

Second, I suspect it will take a while for even an appreciable minority of the resort to be in the hands of resale buyers. We see things like "people hold contracts for ten years" but as I understand it, that's only the people who are selling. Lots of people don't. I have yet to see anyone do the work to really figure this out*, and it would be hard to use other systems as an estimator because the economics are different for most of them.

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*: I'm not even 100% sure that the public deeds give enough information to do this, though I think if you had access to all of them you could probably figure it out. But you can't just count the total resales, because some contracts are presumably "resold" more than once.

 

[tom1944]

There are (at least) two reasons why I think the doomsday scenario doesn't happen.

First, it's just not the case that everyone can plan at 11 months. Some people can, sure. But, not everyone can or will. Riviera has a decent room mix. There are 210 studios in total between dedicated and lockoff, with about 280 larger rooms. If you absolutely need a Tower Studio (or a Standard View) then maybe things are hard much of the time. And yes, it's inconceivable to most of us that someone would not be online right at 8AM, 11 months to the day before a vacation that we might or might not take. But most people just don't think about this the way the average DISer does.

Second, I suspect it will take a while for even an appreciable minority of the resort to be in the hands of resale buyers. We see things like "people hold contracts for ten years" but as I understand it, that's only the people who are selling. Lots of people don't. I have yet to see anyone do the work to really figure this out*, and it would be hard to use other systems as an estimator because the economics are different for most of them.

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*: I'm not even 100% sure that the public deeds give enough information to do this, though I think if you had access to all of them you could probably figure it out. But you can't just count the total resales, because some contracts are presumably "resold" more than once.

I doubt I will ever make a firm reservation at 11 months

I considered a Riviera resale and being able to book there at 7 months was not a concern. I did not like the point chart based on how many points I am willing to purchase at this time.