FP+ Let's look at the math...

[Bullseye]

Did you read the rest of the post? Tot was not a ride that used up FP quickly. Everyone who wanted one could easily get one in peak time. But not now, what is the difference in the system?

Your point is valid for Peter Pan, splash, space mountain, TSMM, RnRC, etc.

My point is valid for every ride and every guest at wdw. You get three quickies in a day, which rides you pick is your decision.

 

[bcrook]

My point is valid for every ride and every guest at wdw. You get three quickies in a day, which rides you pick is your decision.

Actually - this is kind of circling back to my question. If 35,000 people all select their 3 FP - then everything is going to be snatched up (over a 100,000 FP per day). That means the previous abundance of Tower of Terror slots are now being grabbed by somebody. If there are no breakdowns everything flows smoothly - DHS has about 100,000 FP to distribute.

On a good day running full capacity - Tower of Terror can handle about 23,000 people. But it never really used up all those slots. During the Parades and Fantasmic for example the lines are low. Early in the morning walk on is easy. My kids could pull FP late in the afternoon. Not as much demand and it is a high capacity ride.

But now that everyone needs to select three, Tower of Terror has to book up simply because DHS needs every slot they can find (and tiers to boot). So, my guess is that more people are riding Tower of Terror now who in the past - would have skipped it. I think that golden FP is more of a motivator than the fear of the ride.

Either that - or the standby lines are non-existent because everyone who wants to ride it is in the FP line.

Disney said that with Legacy only 50% of the guests used FP. They also said the average number used was 2. I don't know if those two numbers are connected or not (Disney is vague). But if only 17,500 guests are using FP on a busy day at DHS and some of them don't ride ToT at all - you can see that the previous system allowed for more flexibility in regards to ToT.

With TSMM - there are only about 8000 FP slots - so if 17,500 guests all want one - you can see why there was a stampede.

 

[ChrisFL]

Actually - this is kind of circling back to my question. If 35,000 people all select their 3 FP - then everything is going to be snatched up (over a 100,000 FP per day). That means the previous abundance of Tower of Terror slots are now being grabbed by somebody. If there are no breakdowns everything flows smoothly - DHS has about 100,000 FP to distribute.

On a good day running full capacity - Tower of Terror can handle about 23,000 people. But it never really used up all those slots. During the Parades and Fantasmic for example the lines are low. Early in the morning walk on is easy. My kids could pull FP late in the afternoon. Not as much demand and it is a high capacity ride.

But now that everyone needs to select three, Tower of Terror has to book up simply because DHS needs every slot they can find (and tiers to boot). So, my guess is that more people are riding Tower of Terror now who in the past - would have skipped it. I think that golden FP is more of a motivator than the fear of the ride.

Either that - or the standby lines are non-existent because everyone who wants to ride it is in the FP line.

Disney said that with Legacy only 50% of the guests used FP. They also said the average number used was 2. I don't know if those two numbers are connected or not (Disney is vague). But if only 17,500 guests are using FP on a busy day at DHS and some of them don't ride ToT at all - you can see that the previous system allowed for more flexibility in regards to ToT.

With TSMM - there are only about 8000 FP slots - so if 17,500 guests all want one - you can see why there was a stampede.

Just wondering, where did you get your numbers from? I'd be interested to see other numbers like that for other attractions.

 

[sixbitslocum]

Tot was not a ride that used up FP quickly. Everyone who wanted one could easily get one in peak time. But not now, what is the difference in the system?
QUOTE]

I agree with you. ToT doesn't have a line as long as RnR and it is usually easier to use standby on ToT than on RnR. I think the new system seems to take away the "variation" in the fastpass availability between rides. As you mentioned, you could get a lot more legacy fastpasses for ToT than RnR, but now it is limited to 1 per day, so let's think about what that would mean.

If every person in the park could only get 1 fastpass a day to ToT and because it is a thrill ride that many people would skip, that would imply to me that the number of fastpasses used per day on ToT will drastically be reduced. But think about it... both the FP and the Standby lines meet at the end and go into the same ride. If there are fewer people in the fastpass line, then more people from the standby line will be let into the ride, so the net effect of fewer fastpasses on ToT should mean faster standby lines.

As I've stated before, I think the ultimate goal of FP+ is to reduce the time waiting in line even more than legacy fastpass did, but in this case, it would seem to achieve the opposite. This may be a case where they will need to tweak the system and modify the tiering. For example, possibly allowing for a second fastpass on a ride after your first is used, based on remaining availability. Rides like ToT or Dinosaur may then have extra availability in the afternoon that could be used.

 

[sixbitslocum]

So, my guess is that more people are riding Tower of Terror now who in the past - would have skipped it. I think that golden FP is more of a motivator than the fear of the ride.

My gut feel is that a golden FP to ToT won't greatly affect the number of riders on ToT. There was always ample opportunity to ride ToT in the past, FP or no FP so if you didn't ride it then, you won't ride it now.

The people in my party who don't usually ride ToT would usually shop and wait for those of us who do rather than get a legacy fastpass and go on it with us. I don't expect that will change.

 

[ilovemk76]

My gut feel is that a golden FP to ToT won't greatly affect the number of riders on ToT. There was always ample opportunity to ride ToT in the past, FP or no FP so if you didn't ride it then, you won't ride it now.

The people in my party who don't usually ride ToT would usually shop and wait for those of us who do rather than get a legacy fastpass and go on it with us. I don't expect that will change.

I have never ridden TOT and a golden FP+ will not get me to ride.

 

[mom2rtk]

Given that the system requires that you book no less than 3 attractions, even if you only want 1, I would suspect that more ToT FP slots will go unused than ever before. Which is a real shame for those of us who used to access and actually USE those Fps. Just more collateral damage of this system. I mean seriously..... what's the value of having a varying ride sequence if you can only get 1 FP per day? How would anyone even KNOW it has a varying ride sequence?

 

[bcrook]

I agree with you. ToT doesn't have a line as long as RnR and it is usually easier to use standby on ToT than on RnR. I think the new system seems to take away the "variation" in the fastpass availability between rides. As you mentioned, you could get a lot more legacy fastpasses for ToT than RnR, but now it is limited to 1 per day, so let's think about what that would mean.

If every person in the park could only get 1 fastpass a day to ToT and because it is a thrill ride that many people would skip, that would imply to me that the number of fastpasses used per day on ToT will drastically be reduced. But think about it... both the FP and the Standby lines meet at the end and go into the same ride. If there are fewer people in the fastpass line, then more people from the standby line will be let into the ride, so the net effect of fewer fastpasses on ToT should mean faster standby lines.

As I've stated before, I think the ultimate goal of FP+ is to reduce the time waiting in line even more than legacy fastpass did, but in this case, it would seem to achieve the opposite. This may be a case where they will need to tweak the system and modify the tiering. For example, possibly allowing for a second fastpass on a ride after your first is used, based on remaining availability. Rides like ToT or Dinosaur may then have extra availability in the afternoon that could be used.

This could be true, and I think rides like ToT would be good candidates for "bonus" FP.

Unless, people who used to skip are now riding the thrill ride because of the perceived loss of not using their FPs well.

That seems to be the big wild card to me.

IF ride capacity is the same (with exception of adding the mine train)
And more rides have FP (even though some definitely don't need it and will never book up)
THEN, FP+ could be virtually be the same in handling crowds. Some people would lose FPs and other would now have access. SB lines should be shorter in some areas and longer in others.

In this scenario the frustrations are glitches (that might be fixed), a shortage of premium rides (thus the rations), and limits on multiple times on same ride and not hopping (a solution could be found I guess.)

BUT- what if the attendance is the same and ride slots remain the same but a higher percentage of people in the the park start riding more rides. A very definite possibility (and probable explanation for the chaos during busier times).

THEN, FP lines are longer and Standby times are longer for all rides.

That is what I think is happening and will continue to happen. As the FP becomes more valuable, more rare, more difficult to score... people will grab their three (whether they really want them or not) and probably use a high percentage of them because they now have a high value connected to them. They are now more like entitlements with tickets. Everyone will know they get three. Only three. No more and no less. So don't waste them. And choose wisely.

With that mentality, instead of having 30,000 people using 60,000 FP at MK (which is about right space, splash, BTMRR, and Peter Pan have about 55,000 capacity. Most other rides didn't really use that many FP), now we have 60,000 people needing 180,000. Those same 55,000 top tier rides along with ETWB are going first and then the rest of the rides are absorbing the rest.

There used to be a lot of people who would show up in the evening at parks, there would be no FP for major rides, and they would simply skip the rides. Now those people are walking in with their Fastpasses. That addition to the lines alone could be significant.

Eventually it could balance out if the people who like to ride a lot of rides in a day downgrade their expectations, ride less rides, decrease the demand or percentage of those riding. That will take a few cycles through vacations - could take years.

I think that is the only wild card Disney has to play with. Decrease demand for the rides... They need a lot of people to accept less rides while at the same time getting more (different) people to lock into the fastpass system and use their three. The more diverse population using FP would be ideal for Disney, as long as a large percentage of the population doesn't bail on going to Disney in the future.

It does seem like a huge gamble and they are fighting against the math.

 

[bcrook]

Just wondering, where did you get your numbers from? I'd be interested to see other numbers like that for other attractions.

Here is a list that I created. The information had been collected from a wide range of places. The numbers are not officially released by Disney, but these numbers are close. If anybody has any better numbers let me know, a lot of people have contributed to that chart.

The FP allocation in the chart is based on 70% FP distribution, but Disney may be squeezing 80% out of FP now which would have a significant impact on standby. Attendance numbers are based on moderate attendance days. Also keep in mind Disney doesn't run rides at full capacity in less busy times (they might take cars out of circulation, or close an elevator shaft, or close a loading side).

 

[bcrook]

My gut feel is that a golden FP to ToT won't greatly affect the number of riders on ToT. There was always ample opportunity to ride ToT in the past, FP or no FP so if you didn't ride it then, you won't ride it now.

The people in my party who don't usually ride ToT would usually shop and wait for those of us who do rather than get a legacy fastpass and go on it with us. I don't expect that will change.

This will be easy to check. During peak time, what is the experience at ToT? We will find out in the next few weeks. If the aggregate wait times are the same, then there should be fastpasses leftover to surprise and delight or sell.

I have never ridden TOT and a golden FP+ will not get me to ride.

Everybody doesn't have to ride it, just a higher percentage, and that is a mathematical possibility to consider. If a higher percentage uses - lines go up, people will not have the opportunity to ride it multiple times. If the percentage of riders remains the same, the Ride experience at ToT may not be affected by FP+. With only 16000 FP to give out a day, those numbers can easily be affected by a 10-20% uptick in rider usage.

 

[bcrook]

Given that the system requires that you book no less than 3 attractions, even if you only want 1, I would suspect that more ToT FP slots will go unused than ever before. Which is a real shame for those of us who used to access and actually USE those Fps. Just more collateral damage of this system. I mean seriously..... what's the value of having a varying ride sequence if you can only get 1 FP per day? How would anyone even KNOW it has a varying ride sequence?

You may have the opportunity to buy those extra slots.

I don't know how Disney could ever sell TSMM though. With only 8000 FP available and 25,000 people wanting to ride it two or three times? That is a mathematical problem. Talk about a variable experience ride!

To ride ToT multiple times now, we will need to get there early, use a FP and stick around until Fantasmic and ride a few times when the line disappears. Or visit DHS several days in a row.

 

[JimmyV]

If every person in the park could only get 1 fastpass a day to ToT and because it is a thrill ride that many people would skip, that would imply to me that the number of fastpasses used per day on ToT will drastically be reduced. But think about it... both the FP and the Standby lines meet at the end and go into the same ride. If there are fewer people in the fastpass line, then more people from the standby line will be let into the ride, so the net effect of fewer fastpasses on ToT should mean faster standby lines.

You are leaving out one important variable which is why none of this "math" is predictive. We are being told that upwards of half of all past guests didn't use FP- either because they didn't think they could or because they didn't know how. Now, 90% of guests are reportedly getting their three FP+. So now look at it:

Assume 30,000 guests in the park.
Assume half the guests don't want to ride ToT.
Assume half of the ones who do didn't use FP-.
So 7,500 people want to ride ToT and are familiar with and use FP- Most will, but not all.
Assume 80% of those people pulled at least one FP for it.
Assume 4,000 of those people pulled one FP for it and 2000 people pulled two. Total FP for the day =8,000.

Now, 90% of the 15,000 people use the new system. ToT is not tiered with TSM. 80% of the people who wish to ride it book a FP+. Total number of FP+ booked is 12,000. FP line is longer and SB line is more severely impeded.

 

[mom2rtk]

You may have the opportunity buy those extra slots.

I don't know how Disney could ever sell TSMM though. With only 8000 FP available and 25,000 people wanting to ride it two or three times? That is a mathematical problem. Talk about a variable experience ride!

To ride ToT multiple times now, we will need to get there early, use a FP and stick around until Fantasmic and ride a few times when the line disappears. Or visit DHS several days in a row.

The scenario in that thread on the rumor board about them selling FPs says they would not sell ride duplicates. And if you wanted to ride ToT, you would have already chosen it as one of your three. So if it pans out that way, I consider it completely worthless, even if I'm open to spending the money.

I think it's more likely they would try to "surprise and delight". But by the time that opportunity comes, I might be on the other side of the park, resigned to doing it only once, with plans to head back to the room soon. And the moment where we walked off the ride and said "Let's go again" has passed.

It really does completely change the dynamic when it comes on Disney's terms instead of our own.

 

[ChrisFL]

Here is a list that I created. The information had been collected from a wide range of places. The numbers are not officially released by Disney, but these numbers are close. If anybody has any better numbers let me know, a lot of people have contributed to that chart.

The FP allocation in the chart is based on 70% FP distribution, but Disney may be squeezing 80% out of FP now which would have a significant impact on standby. Attendance numbers are based on moderate attendance days. Also keep in mind Disney doesn't run rides at full capacity in less busy times (they might take cars out of circulation, or close an elevator shaft, or close a loading side).

Awesome, thanks!

 

[bcrook]

The scenario in that thread on the rumor board about them selling FPs says they would not sell ride duplicates. And if you wanted to ride ToT, you would have already chosen it as one of your three. So if it pans out that way, I consider it completely worthless, even if I'm open to spending the money.

I think it's more likely they would try to "surprise and delight". But by the time that opportunity comes, I might be on the other side of the park, resigned to doing it only once, with plans to head back to the room soon. And the moment where we walked off the ride and said "Let's go again" has passed.

It really does completely change the dynamic when it comes on Disney's terms instead of our own.

Regardless, I am not going to buy fastpasses... Ever! (well maybe if my DVC annual dues go down ) The dynamic has changed dramatically in a lot of areas.

 

[bcrook]

You are leaving out one important variable which is why none of this "math" is predictive. We are being told that upwards of half of all past guests didn't use FP- either because they didn't think they could or because they didn't know how. Now, 90% of guests are reportedly getting their three FP+. So now look at it:

Assume 30,000 guests in the park.
Assume half the guests don't want to ride ToT.
Assume half of the ones who do didn't use FP-.
So 7,500 people want to ride ToT and are familiar with and use FP- Most will, but not all.
Assume 80% of those people pulled at least one FP for it.
Assume 4,000 of those people pulled one FP for it and 2000 people pulled two. Total FP for the day =8,000.

Now, 90% of the 15,000 people use the new system. ToT is not tiered with TSM. 80% of the people who wish to ride it book a FP+. Total number of FP+ booked is 12,000. FP line is longer and SB line is more severely impeded.

. Exactly. This is mathematically probable and explains the problems with all queues when the attendance levels hit a 7 or higher.

 

[mom2rtk]

Regardless, I am not going to buy fastpasses... Ever! (well maybe if my DVC annual dues go down ) The dynamic has changed dramatically in a lot of areas.

I really don't see us opting to buy FPs either. I just have a hard time swallowing paying that much more for something we were getting for free. If it's 3 of us, and it's $15 for a tier 1, then I'm supposed to fork over almost $50 to do one ride? I just don't see us doing it. Unless ticket prices go down. And that's as likely as your DVC dues going down!

 

[sixbitslocum]

We are being told that upwards of half of all past guests didn't use FP- either because they didn't think they could or because they didn't know how. Now, 90% of guests are reportedly getting their three FP+. QUOTE]

I think this gets to the crux of the issue. In the past there was a great divide between the "haves" and "have nots". Commandos who knew how to use the system could get more than their fair share of fastpasses (I was one of them). Those who didn't understand or make use of fastpasses, had fewer rides. So although the same number of rides occurred each day, the average commando may have gotten in 12 rides and the average newbie only 4. FP+ will probably narrow that divide and perhaps commandos will now get 9 rides and newbies 7.

The result is that commandos will lose rides, and others will pick them up. For every commando family who is unhappy, there will be a happy family with small children who can use fastpasses in the afternoon after the babys nap.

The reason we are seeing so much negativity on this board is that most of us are commandos. If there were an equivalent board only for people who were new to Disney, then they would probably be singing the praises of FP+.

Also, to all my fellow commandos who threaten to leave Disney never to return, please know that this probably won't affect Disney's bottom line. As commandos leave, lines become shorter, as lines become shorter, new people will visit the park. Equilibrium will be achieved whether you are at the park or not, so I urge you to have patience and give Disney the time to work out the kinks before throwing in the towel.

Part of the reason people are so upset is because they love Disney so much to begin with and don't want to see anything mess with what they have come to love. If Disney were built entirely by money grubbing capitalists only concerned with the bottom line, then they certainly wouldn't have one of the most fanatical followings that I have seen in any industry. There have to be more than a few people there you really care about the guest experience, right? I think we need to give them time to work out the kinks while offering calm, rational input.

We had plans to go down over Presidents Day weekend but were snowed in and didn't make it. The other half of the family from Pittsburgh didn't have any problem with their flight and made it fine. I heard only good reviews from them concerning FP+ and they said that basically they arrived at the parks early and used standby enough that they didn't really need to use all of their fastpasses. We've planned a replacement trip in May, so I'm very anxious to get there and check out the situation for myself. I'll be sure to report back when I do.

 

[bcrook]

I think this gets to the crux of the issue. In the past there was a great divide between the "haves" and "have nots". Commandos who knew how to use the system could get more than their fair share of fastpasses (I was one of them). Those who didn't understand or make use of fastpasses, had fewer rides. So although the same number of rides occurred each day, the average commando may have gotten in 12 rides and the average newbie only 4. FP+ will probably narrow that divide and perhaps commandos will now get 9 rides and newbies 7.

The result is that commandos will lose rides, and others will pick them up. For every commando family who is unhappy, there will be a happy family with small children who can use fastpasses in the afternoon after the babys nap.

The reason we are seeing so much negativity on this board is that most of us are commandos. If there were an equivalent board only for people who were new to Disney, then they would probably be singing the praises of FP+.

Also, to all my fellow commandos who threaten to leave Disney never to return, please know that this probably won't affect Disney's bottom line. As commandos leave, lines become shorter, as lines become shorter, new people will visit the park. Equilibrium will be achieved whether you are at the park or not, so I urge you to have patience and give Disney the time to work out the kinks before throwing in the towel.

Part of the reason people are so upset is because they love Disney so much to begin with and don't want to see anything mess with what they have come to love. If Disney were built entirely by money grubbing capitalists only concerned with the bottom line, then they certainly wouldn't have one of the most fanatical followings that I have seen in any industry. There have to be more than a few people there you really care about the guest experience, right? I think we need to give them time to work out the kinks while offering calm, rational input.

We had plans to go down over Presidents Day weekend but were snowed in and didn't make it. The other half of the family from Pittsburgh didn't have any problem with their flight and made it fine. I heard only good reviews from them concerning FP+ and they said that basically they arrived at the parks early and used standby enough that they didn't really need to use all of their fastpasses. We've planned a replacement trip in May, so I'm very anxious to get there and check out the situation for myself. I'll be sure to report back when I do.

It seems that you turned this mathematical discussion into an editorial. Jimmy and I both presented an alternative mathematical probability that goes beyond the commando/newbie redistribution argument. It is worth discussing.

 

[Laketravis]

My kid could easily pull 3 paper FP's for TOT in one day. Easily.

I never thought about how he was robbing that opportunity from another child.

I guess if Disney starts charging for FP, that would mean that every person who buys an additional FP is robbing a child from being able to get one.

That's when I'll start the "Save the Children" program, so that for less than $1 a day you can provide hope for children everywhere that an FP will be available to them.....

I'm going to need some poster kids......maybe a shot of Johnny standing outside a packed Teacups and long SB line with a single tear rolling down his cheek?