No. People on this board fail to realize that not everyone who goes to Disney is obsessed with ADR's, Reservations, and planning everything to the T. A lot of folks are first timers and/or people who simply want to relax. You think these guys are going to book Toy Story Mania @ 2pm 60 days out? Get real.
I understand your view for most rides. I always think there will be FP available each day for some rides.
But think about this. Peter Pan only has about 7000 slots available a day for FP. It wouldn't be hard to imagine that booking up in advance. It doesn't take that many people (7000/50,000=13%). Toy Story Midway Mania maybe 10000 slots available.
Even if people don't book online ahead of time, people who show up on for a 7 day vacation are going to figure out real quickly that they have a huge advantage by grabbing FP+ for each day of their stay. People booking a week or two in advance should be a given.
All the tour groups are going to take advantage of this.
Travel Agents will use this as a marketing tool - and actually - it makes me want to get a
travel agent to manage it for me.
Also, when people link their tickets - the Disney program is going to encourage people to grab the fast picks.
Everyone who is staying on site is going to get emails letting them know it is time to login and check in 60 days in advance, and they can start booking FP+ reservations, link tickets (or buy tickets), and send out MagicBands.
Even if people resist the initial login and settle for ordering their magicbands, and pass on the recommended Fastpicks. When that box shows up with the magicbands - people will go online then and start booking.
Locals with APs will figure this out quickly and they will definitely be booking rides.
Their wasn't a real connection to profits with the old FP (legacy), thus the casual atmosphere about it.
BUT, this FP+ is linked to magic bands which is linked to serious data collection and incentives to keep people on site. The goal for Disney is to get 100% of the customers on the Magic Band. Disney marketing will be aggressive.
AND - the commercials haven't even started yet. Wait until that hits along with the full court press of the media. Mercy. I will find it difficult to believe anybody won't know.