We booked a BW view 2BR over Columbus Day weekend right at the 11 month window (from BWV actually). Then DW decided we should stay an extra night so I waitlisted almost right at the 7 month window, and sure enough, it came thru within a couple of days (I was suprised, even tho it was a Weds night).
I expect that the hardest nights to get will be Sunday nights, or Sun and Mon of holiday weekends. But I also expect that things will start booking up for F&W, especially in the weeks before the F&W event schedule come out. If you're planning on going this year, put your ressie requests in soon, so in case you end up on the waitlist, you might at least have a decent chance of it coming thru.