Hi, I thought I would chime in with my 2 cents.
One, I do not think the contemporary is worth the money for a first time trip. My kids have always loved the values and we've stayed at every hotel on property. These are still nice, way cheaper and super fun for kids. The money you will save, you can do some super fun stuff with. Like Mickeys Christmas party, Lightening lane passes, more character meals or the dining plan, rent a boat for fireworks on bay lake, go putt putt, take a hot air balloon ride, etc.
Two, if your daughter doesn't nap at home, she won't nap at Disney. Definitely take it easy, don't try to go sun up to sun down everyday or you will end up with a child having a complete melt down on day 4 or 5. I've been there myself and see it everytime we go. WDW is HUGE, you will not see it or do it all and that's okay. Make a list of must dos and focus on those. Anything else is just a bonus.
Three, cut out your Volcano bay day. This is at Universal, not WDW. Traffic on I-4 is ALWAYS horrendous, I live here. Plus it does sometimes get "cold" here in Dec (50s), so it might be fairly chilly that day, not super fun. All Disney pools are fun plus they always have a crew out everyday playing games with the kids. Much more relaxing for you.