First Riviera ROFR

[stat]

This all leads to another question. Does DVC really use ROFR to “set floors”? I think they use this to buy up cheap points in sold out resorts to repackage and sell back to buyers. Other than resorts in active sales I’m starting to think they don’t care about floors. Curious what experienced timeshare people think.

I don't believe so. I used the term to mean a natural floor based on organic demand, not something artificial. That said, ROFR can help provide price support but I agree with others who'd say this is an indirect effect and not Disney's actual strategy.

 

[airjay75]

This all leads to another question. Does DVC really use ROFR to “set floors”? I think they use this to buy up cheap points in sold out resorts to repackage and sell back to buyers. Other than resorts in active sales I’m starting to think they don’t care about floors. Curious what experienced timeshare people think.

The only rational, profit-making reason for them to care would be if the resale value somehow cannibalized direct sales - I guess potential theories would be (1) people won't pay direct prices if they can get something similar on resale for less or (2) with respect to RIV and other restricted resorts, they won't pay direct prices if they lose so much value after they buy. The resale restrictions actually quite help with #1 because every single resale contract, whether RIV or otherwise, has limitations on their usage that direct points do not. And, on #2, it is hard to see much concrete evidence that RIV/CFW/VDH sales have been hurt because of the resale restrictions. RIV's slower sales pace is likely due entirely to COVID and the market interruptions that occurred as a result. CFW is a niche product with high dues - I'm not sure most CFW buyers even care about using their points outside of CFW. And, I haven't really followed VDH sales, but there, the resale restrictions appear to have almost no effect on resale prices.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Where are you getting this from? Most prices are above the prices when Disney was offering the properties for sale.

I haven't seen any resale holding its value these past five years, and I definitely don't see restricted resale holding its value in the future, especially as DVC adds even more points to the system. At some point you have to reach saturation of your market. I've looked at the DVC Field Guide values and they haven't held steady in the past few years. I certainly do not expect the value of resale to increase further beyond minimal increases for inflation.

 

[Sandisw]

There are contracts out there with asking prices sub $110 that are sitting on the market. So whatever brokers (who have incentives to report high numbers) are advertising about "average selling prices", I'm not sure I buy it - no pun intended. I suspect a non-loaded/non-stripped contract averages $100-$105 nowadays, and that we may see more ROFRs in the high $80s or low $90s when there are motivated sellers.



Because it's not the same product. One if fully functional and the other is purposely engineered to lack functionality all owners value... The market for owners who want a timeshare and never trade out to a different one is probably very limited.

My guess is that IF THE PRICE WAS EQUAL a lot of those who think they want Riviera as a top choice, would "settle" for BLT, VGF, or POLY and have access to 14 resorts for at least 10-15 years (and 8 resorts for ~2 decades after that) than stick to Riviera, and only Riviera, until they die or until 2070. And, if that's the case, the price will have to stabilize at a much lower level to reflect those two different product types that will be on the market.



You are an informed buyer, and made an informed decision based on your preferences.

But if you put yourself in the shoes of a the resale buyer looking at an array of resale contracts at "sold out resorts", it's hard to ignore that the O14 contracts have a strong advantage over the restricted ones, and one that will last for decades. That's why I don't expect the restricted ones to sell at similar prices in equilibrium.

Even if the value is closer to what you say, IMO, it still should not outweigh resort choice, when you have one.

I don’t think it will ever be a premium because the buyer pool will be smaller as it is a unique product.

But I maintain that if someone likes RIv and wants to stay there and the choice is direct at around $275 or resale, then buying arojnd $120 or $130 seems very reasonable.

Also, the current incentives on RIV right now are decent enough for those to choose direct over resale….IMO, that plays some role in how much someone is willing to pay for resale RIV.

I get that if someone wants flexibility the. RIV resale doesn’t work…but if you want RIV, resale at O14 doesn’t get you it…and so you have to decide what is more important… being able to stay where you want or settle for other places.

Or, buy both so you have the flexibility. I just don’t think anyone who has RIV or any other restricted resort at the top of their list of places they enjoy should buy something else because of the potential loss of resale. DVC is simply too expensive for that.

I certainly wouldn’t spend what people are spending for the 2042 resorts right now for just 16 1/2 years of use…but that’s because neither is my top choice.

People aren’t paying that because they lack restrictions…they pay it because they want to stay there almost exclusively. And it’s worth it to them.

It’s the same for those buying RIV and other restricted resorts. Resale value is simply not important when it comes to deciding.

 

[Dodgerburt8]

The only rational, profit-making reason for them to care would be if the resale value somehow cannibalized direct sales - I guess potential theories would be (1) people won't pay direct prices if they can get something similar on resale for less or (2) with respect to RIV and other restricted resorts, they won't pay direct prices if they lose so much value after they buy. The resale restrictions actually quite help with #1 because every single resale contract, whether RIV or otherwise, has limitations on their usage that direct points do not. And, on #2, it is hard to see much concrete evidence that RIV/CFW/VDH sales have been hurt because of the resale restrictions. RIV's slower sales pace is likely due entirely to COVID and the market interruptions that occurred as a result. CFW is a niche product with high dues - I'm not sure most CFW buyers even care about using their points outside of CFW. And, I haven't really followed VDH sales, but there, the resale restrictions appear to have almost no effect on resale prices.

I think RIV sales compared to Poly Tower since it opened is pretty good evidence of resale restrictions depressing demand for RIV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I think RIV sales compared to Poly Tower since it opened is pretty good evidence of resale restrictions depressing demand for RIV.

Evidence? No, not really.

There's a ton of other reasons that Poly Tower sales are stronger than Riviera sales. Let's remember that Riviera outsold Grand Floridian several months, when going head to head, when Riviera had better pricing incentives. Restrictions may deter some people from buying, but to say that restrictions have a meaningful impact, with no actual evidence, is speculation.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Evidence? No, not really.

There's a ton of other reasons that Poly Tower sales are stronger than Riviera sales. Let's remember that Riviera outsold Grand Floridian several months, when going head to head, when Riviera had better pricing incentives. Restrictions may deter some people from buying, but to say that restrictions have a meaningful impact, with no actual evidence, is speculation.

Has Poly ever been less expensive than Riviera in active sales?

 

[BeachClub2014]

Has Poly ever been less expensive than Riviera in active sales?

I dunno

 

[Sandisw]

Has Poly ever been less expensive than Riviera in active sales?

No, it hasn’t. PVB tower has remained more expensive than RIV.

 

[airjay75]

I think RIV sales compared to Poly Tower since it opened is pretty good evidence of resale restrictions depressing demand for RIV.

I used to think that, but if you look at the sales history of RIV, it was on track to sell out quite quickly. RIV began sales in March 2019 and by the time the world shut down in the spring of 2020, RIV had already sold over 20% of its points. RIV sold almost 140,000 points in February 2020, and that was the fourth consecutive month of 6 figure sales - that far surpasses anything the Poly tower has put up since it opened. See the DVC News links below.

Then, once the world finally got going again, there was the VGF fire sale. Then, not long after that, the Poly tower opened. And VDH (2023) and CFW (2024) both came online. RIV got very little time to be the shiny, new DVC resort, and for the little time that it did, it was selling incredibly well. Take away COVID, and RIV probably would have been sold out by the spring of 2024 if not sooner.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...ith 139,205,resort's 6.7 million total points.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...les data includes all,the username of “wdrl.”

 

[eticketplease]

I haven't seen any resale holding its value these past five years, and I definitely don't see restricted resale holding its value in the future, especially as DVC adds even more points to the system. At some point you have to reach saturation of your market. I've looked at the DVC Field Guide values and they haven't held steady in the past few years. I certainly do not expect the value of resale to increase further beyond minimal increases for inflation.

I was commenting on the resale price dropping after active sales had stopped. PVB, VGF resale did not drop after active sales although they have/had dipped once the direct was active again. Direct RIV is already $235 so who knows what the sold out price will be. The resale owners will be able to list their contracts as it will still be seen as a bigger monetary savings.

 

[eticketplease]

I think RIV sales compared to Poly Tower since it opened is pretty good evidence of resale restrictions depressing demand for RIV.

Most new buyers don’t think about selling let alone if there are restrictions.

There are no restrictions to these buyers no matter which resort they buy.

If they sell their potential buyers will face restrictions with whichever property they are selling.

Either they are restricted to using II or staying at RIV only OR are restricted to II or whatever resorts that are left from the O14.

 

[airjay75]

That’s ignoring too many variables. The big variables is what happens with boardwalk and beach club. Depending on the plan with them, the price will either rise or fall at Riviera.

This. Let's imagine it's 2042. DVD announces that BCV and BWV will be reimagined and relaunched in the next few years with the same resale restrictions as all other new resorts since RIV. Then, both resorts begin a new round of active sales at, let's say $350/point (my rough inflation calculation), similar dues to RIV, but with new points charts that are 10-20 points more per night than RIV. And, let's say RIV direct pricing is $400/point with occasional incentives on par with resorts in active sales.

Are RIV resale contracts, with almost 30 years left on them, still selling for $120/point? I doubt it. Of course, that assumes a lot of other variables stay constant which, they almost certainly will not.

 

[PolyRob]

One interesting comparison in my mind is BWV. I'd guess that the majority of people paying $100+ for a mere 16 years of life left are treating those contracts as if they were restricted points. That gives me hope that resale Riviera (nearly triple the years left) will have a decent floor on the pricing. A Disney resort (even a contract purchased for a single resort, whether functionally or legally) has a tangible value that keeps resale from going to zero IMO. Perhaps roughly the premium the people are paying for DVC over other timeshare systems.

In the end, I'd bet resale RIV will hold up better than many are predicting, but it really won't matter in 20+ years since I'll be well past my break even point.

Resale restrictions aside, the big differentiators to me are location and size.

RIV is an Epcot area resort, not a Crescent Lake resort. The walkability factor is what's propping BCV and BWV up with so few years left on the deed. BCV also has what is probably considered the most desirable pool overall at WDW requiring recreation CMs posted at every entrance to wristband guests plus it's a very small DVC property.

It's like the MK resorts. VGF never tanked in resale pricing before BPK because of it's size. The sheer number of contracts on the market combined with the fact that Disney had a waitlist and would ROFR your contract made it more competitive. VGF didn't even have a walking path before BPK, but it was selling higher than BLT resale which is a much larger property with only four less years on the deed.

Size and location is what also keeps SSR resale low compared to other resorts and SSR dues are lower than RIV.

 

[PolyRob]

Evidence? No, not really.

There's a ton of other reasons that Poly Tower sales are stronger than Riviera sales. Let's remember that Riviera outsold Grand Floridian several months, when going head to head, when Riviera had better pricing incentives. Restrictions may deter some people from buying, but to say that restrictions have a meaningful impact, with no actual evidence, is speculation.

I think the type of additions and what it did to both VGF and PVB overall could also be a factor in how the points are selling.

The VGF BPK addition added all studios watering down the resort makeup whereas PVB IT completed the resort by adding villas it never previously had.

VGF BPK was a cash flip and PVB IT was a new build.

There are people on both sides, but overall I think a lot of people believe BPK hurt VGF whereas PVB IT helped PVB. It's not an exact comparison.