I don't believe so. I used the term to mean a natural floor based on organic demand, not something artificial. That said, ROFR can help provide price support but I agree with others who'd say this is an indirect effect and not Disney's actual strategy.
The only rational, profit-making reason for them to care would be if the resale value somehow cannibalized direct sales - I guess potential theories would be (1) people won't pay direct prices if they can get something similar on resale for less or (2) with respect to RIV and other restricted resorts, they won't pay direct prices if they lose so much value after they buy. The resale restrictions actually quite help with #1 because every single resale contract, whether RIV or otherwise, has limitations on their usage that direct points do not. And, on #2, it is hard to see much concrete evidence that RIV/CFW/VDH sales have been hurt because of the resale restrictions. RIV's slower sales pace is likely due entirely to COVID and the market interruptions that occurred as a result. CFW is a niche product with high dues - I'm not sure most CFW buyers even care about using their points outside of CFW. And, I haven't really followed VDH sales, but there, the resale restrictions appear to have almost no effect on resale prices.
I haven't seen any resale holding its value these past five years, and I definitely don't see restricted resale holding its value in the future, especially as DVC adds even more points to the system. At some point you have to reach saturation of your market. I've looked at the DVC Field Guide values and they haven't held steady in the past few years. I certainly do not expect the value of resale to increase further beyond minimal increases for inflation.
I think RIV sales compared to Poly Tower since it opened is pretty good evidence of resale restrictions depressing demand for RIV.
Evidence? No, not really.
Has Poly ever been less expensive than Riviera in active sales?
I dunno
I used to think that, but if you look at the sales history of RIV, it was on track to sell out quite quickly. RIV began sales in March 2019 and by the time the world shut down in the spring of 2020, RIV had already sold over 20% of its points. RIV sold almost 140,000 points in February 2020, and that was the fourth consecutive month of 6 figure sales - that far surpasses anything the Poly tower has put up since it opened. See the DVC News links below.
I was commenting on the resale price dropping after active sales had stopped. PVB, VGF resale did not drop after active sales although they have/had dipped once the direct was active again. Direct RIV is already $235 so who knows what the sold out price will be. The resale owners will be able to list their contracts as it will still be seen as a bigger monetary savings.
Most new buyers don’t think about selling let alone if there are restrictions.
This. Let's imagine it's 2042. DVD announces that BCV and BWV will be reimagined and relaunched in the next few years with the same resale restrictions as all other new resorts since RIV. Then, both resorts begin a new round of active sales at, let's say $350/point (my rough inflation calculation), similar dues to RIV, but with new points charts that are 10-20 points more per night than RIV. And, let's say RIV direct pricing is $400/point with occasional incentives on par with resorts in active sales.
Resale restrictions aside, the big differentiators to me are location and size.
I think the type of additions and what it did to both VGF and PVB overall could also be a factor in how the points are selling.
Very good points. And I would argue that those factors along with points charts is what, by and large, determines 7-month availability at a given resort. BCV/BWV are very much resorts where having home resort priority matters because getting in at 7-months is not easy. I think VGF is also a resort where, maybe to a slightly lesser extent than BCV/BWV, home priority also matters. Compare that to BRV and AKL, resorts where home resort priority matters a lot less and, accordingly are priced much lower on the resale market (of course, there are other factors - namely, length of contract and dues).
All fair points and agreed that there are factors other than restrictions that would differentiate the prices. BWV is my favorite resort and I'd pay more for it all else equal. My main point is that I don't see RIV's price plummeting anytime soon (even if it stays lower than many O14 resorts for a while) and that restrictions won't be enough to weigh it down. I bet long term there will be enough fans of Riviera willing to commit to it exclusively, at least enough to keep up with contracts that hit the resale market.
Future-proofing ability to stay at RIV is an interesting concept. I've thought more of how the resale restrictions increasingly limit movement amongst resorts, and as the 2042 deeds expire, what that will mean for overall availability across DVC. Especially at new (or renewed post 2042) resorts. It's what pushed me to buy more direct points. Definitely a more expensive way to go than resale, but keeping my DVC options open was a priority.
See, here is where I get lost. I've stayed at RIV. It was "OK". We don't plan on staying there again. For us, that is mostly because we didn't feel that it matched what they want point-wise. I know that some love the rooms, but I stayed in a SSR 3-Bedroom a year after staying in the RIV 3-Bedroom and the post-renovation GV was, admittedly in our opinion, just as nice and our stay was about 300 points less than if we'd have stayed at RIV. Another thing that I personally feel about RIV is that it doesn't have that "Disney" feel for me. Now, I know that is different for different people, but that's how I feel about it. To be honest, I get the same feelings over at the Poly tower. (Side note: one other thing, at least for us is that we hate the Galley style kitchens, of which both RIV and PIT are offenders)...
