But couldn't you also say that a local showing up and not being able to get the FP+s they want day of might be more inclined to make sure it doesn't happen again. They have a higher chance of learning their lesson and doing their day over. Like going to see your favorite local band, it would only take once maybe twice to realize that if you show up 5 minutes before the show starts that you aren't going to get front row seats. You still love the band. You just learn you need to change the time you arrive to the theater and you are able to do it because you are local. Just as non-locals are learning they need to get their tickets early to pre-book FP+s so will the locals. It might even push them into getting that AP because then they could pre-book every Saturday for the next 30 days just in case they want to come to Disney. What would be the reason Disney would want to keep a FP+ from a family that is pre-planning their trip to Disney, no matter where they live, to reward the family that does not. How does it benefit Disney to do this in the long term? Will you turn off a some that can't get want they want day of and they never return? Maybe so but you also could have just as many that learn their lesson and make sure it doesn't happen again which would give Disney what they want. They would also pass a warning on to all their friends to pre-book your FP+s to get what you want. Disney has stated that one of the main goals of FP+s was to lock guest into their parks days before they plan to be in the parks. How does holding back FP+s fit in with this plan?
I must at this time say that I have no idea weather they are or are not holding back FP+s. I have no insider knowledge. I have talked to no CMs or bus driver. I have never worked for Disney or know anyone that works for Disney. This all just thinking in my head and using the common sense God gave me which could be not much at times.