I love Disney more than pretty much anybody does, but when they are in the wrong, I will call them on it. Just like I am the first one to tell my kids when they have crossed the line.
We have two possible scenarios here:
1) Disney knew all along that they were going to add the 4th (and more) FP. Everything up until this point has all been part of their elaborate testing
2) People complained that 3 FP+s weren't enough. And complained loudly. And frequently. And Disney realized that even though the average guest used three, some of their most loyal guests used a whole lot more and would not be content with 3.
In scenario 1, Disney used a bunch of unwitting (and possibly unwilling) guests as guinea pigs. They threw a bunch of constantly changing parameters and rules at people who had no way to know or plan for these changes. Guests who spent thousands of dollars on their vacations received no compensation. Disney, knowing full well what they had planned, could have given plenty of advance notice to guests (such as at Pop during the only 3 FP+ situation when all other resorts could "double dip" and even off-siters got as many paper FPs as the system allowed) to allow guests to make alternate plans. But Disney chose not to. And it wasn't because this was a quiet time of year. Some of the negative changes happened right at Christmas and the 4th FP wasn't rolled out for spring break. If Disney knew that this was their master plan and didn't inform guests, they were pretty much being a big old bully.
In scenario 2, Disney isn't quite sure what's going on. "I think maybe we can give 3 FPs in advance to everyone at every park. Oops! Soarin' and TT are booked in advance. There's nothing left. I guess we better put some tiers in place. Well, we've got this great new system, but people are still pulling lots of paper FPs. Perhaps we should force them to all use FP+s and not paper. Well, we can't stress the system too much. Let's just pick one resort and make people use only FP+s. How about Pop? Oh, the average guest uses three FPs per day. If we let them pre-book three FPs, they'll be thrilled. They won't have to get up early to go to TSMM. What's that you say? With the tiers, they still have to get up early to ride RNRC? And people really want to book FPs in multiple parks? But we don't exactly have enough capacity for prebooking that way. Boy, people are getting really ornery. Have you seen the FB page? We had to turn off the comments. Yikes! Okay. I guess we'll need to add in more FP+s somehow. Let's send a survey about what the best way to do that will be. And then we'll post on the blog letting them know that enhancements are coming, but we're not exactly sure when. Let's say "spring." It's our most generic timeframe. We'll put in hopping and more FPs. But for now, they'll need to use the kiosks. Back to the drawing board to see what we can do about prebooking in multiple parks and that "rolling 3" option we put on the survey and got everyone all excited about."
In scenario 2, Disney is just kind of clueless and unprepared. When they realize there is an issue, they try to fix it in a kind of haphazard way.
Based on my experience with Disney in general and Disney IT in particular (not just
MDE, but dining, reservations, tickets, and pretty much everything else), I just see scenario 2 as much more likely.
Whether you like FP+ or not, I think it is very hard to make the argument that Disney did a fantastic job with the rollout. So, they are either sneaky and underhanded and implemented their grand MASTER FP+ Plan at the expense of unsuspecting guests or they made some mistakes and couldn't quite get FP+ right but are trying their best to make improvements to please their guests.
I know which one gives me a more positive impression of Disney. YMMV.
