Easywdw vs. touring why are #'s so different??

[saxman]

I think both sites stress a couple important techniques regardless of the numbers. Be there before the parks open and stay away from EMH's. We go during the busy Spring Break time and usually get done with our must do's by lunch. I use both sites but rely more on the morning touring to avoid the crowds.

 

[laura428]

Anyone know when EasyWDW will be updated for December? I noticed that TP hasn't been quite updated yet, either - don't think Disney has released the official hours yet.

My ADR window opens up in three weeks, and I'm already trying to plan my days! I've used TP for the last few years, and have been pretty happy for the most part. This last trip in October 2013, however, caught us off guard a few times. Could have been a factor of FP+, but thought if give EasyWDW a whirl to see how things look.

 

[mesaboy2]

Anyone know when EasyWDW will be updated for December? I noticed that TP hasn't been quite updated yet, either - don't think Disney has released the official hours yet.

My ADR window opens up in three weeks, and I'm already trying to plan my days! I've used TP for the last few years, and have been pretty happy for the most part. This last trip in October 2013, however, caught us off guard a few times. Could have been a factor of FP+, but thought if give EasyWDW a whirl to see how things look.

The planning sites typically wait for this. Then they give a first guess, usually pretty quickly.

 

[DisneyDreamer04]

Wow! A lot of responses with several good thoughts and points. I see how everyone uses both sites now. I will uses easy to help me pick which days to go where, and what numbers i could/can expect, and look to tp, for possible wait times.

Just so everybody knows, it does help me understand more. Our family has only gone but that 1st week of September, and the one time we branch outit was an insane week in December....so schedule dictates we have to go a different time than our norm. we only go once every 2-3 years.. So I would like to keep my crowds close to what we can adjust to.

 

[nkereina]

I'm not sure how Easy WDW predicts the crowd number projections, but for the most/least recommended parks, I know one of the things he takes into consideration is EMH and night time entertainment. If DHS has PM EMH on Monday, it will be least recommended on Monday and most recommended on Tuesday. This takes into consideration the fact that most people take advantage of PM EMH, causing larger crowds on Monday and those same people visiting a different crowd Tuesday, making for lighter crowds at DHS on Tuesday. Just an example, but I've read this on the site before and it makes perfect sense IMO. We followed the most recommended parks to a T last year and it worked great.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

Ok, so I found out how touring plans gets their numbers.. And I understand that there is no way to predict the future. So, can someone tell what easywdw uses to get their numbers. I know not to get wrapped up in numbers, but I am trying to stress how much anxiety I do have. I mean if the numbers on easywdw are more accurate, then October and November have to play in my possibilities of dates, just because if those are the numbers I will see...might as well be cooler while waiting in a line

The owner of easywdw.com posted a very long explanation for how he makes his predictions a couple of years ago:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=45681529#post45681529

 

[MrInfinity]

I think where the crowd planners are completely off is they assume people are choosing as logically and deliberately as they would. For example... "there won't be a parade here this day and fantasmic runs there and people will be arriving on this day and going here first" type of stuff. While some ppl certainly do think this way, The general tourist just picks and goes. It's easy to assume that because we're diligent about such choices that everyone is... but most ppl are not that way. So, these sites are trying to use an algorithm to predict something that's basically random and pretty distributed anyways. It's like -- studying the lottery picks to predict future picks.

For example... I just got back from a week. Sunday at the MK was not bad at all. Everyone says Sunday is Mother's Day and late EMH so it'll be busy, but it was totally fine.

Throughout the week, the daily weather affected the experience more than anything. Sites recommend against EMH days, but our EMH day we got tons done, and not just in the morning. We pulled Fast Passes all day and by midday we rode the Tea Cups 3 times in a row w no wait.

Consider the 2nd week of May was much rainier than the 3rd week of may this year. We all know rain leads to short lines... so crowd calendars might look back on this next year and say the 2nd week of May is in general better cuz of lighter crowds... when really the crowds were caused by completely random things. Next year it might rain more in the 3rd week.

You can still draw general ideas from them... like on a weekend it'll be busier than on a weekday, and on holiday weekends it'll be really busy... but on a Mon-Fri to say one park is going to be optimal Tuesday vs Wednesday while others are bad is anyone's guess.

And you can also consider this... if everyone did pick days logically, they would all follow the crowd calendars. And if they did that, then the recommended days would be the worst. So clearly the crowd calculators are predicated on most guests not picking logically to begin with.

 

[Day-Day]

I think where the crowd planners are completely off is they assume people are choosing as logically and deliberately as they would. For example... "there won't be a parade here this day and fantasmic runs there and people will be arriving on this day and going here first" type of stuff. While some ppl certainly do think this way, The general tourist just picks and goes. It's easy to assume that because we're diligent about such choices that everyone is... but most ppl are not that way. So, these sites are trying to use an algorithm to predict something that's basically random and pretty distributed anyways. It's like -- studying the lottery picks to predict future picks.

For example... I just got back from a week. Sunday at the MK was not bad at all. Everyone says Sunday is Mother's Day and late EMH so it'll be busy, but it was totally fine.

Throughout the week, the daily weather affected the experience more than anything. Sites recommend against EMH days, but our EMH day we got tons done, and not just in the morning. We pulled Fast Passes all day and by midday we rode the Tea Cups 3 times in a row w no wait.

Consider the 2nd week of May was much rainier than the 3rd week of may this year. We all know rain leads to short lines... so crowd calendars might look back on this next year and say the 2nd week of May is in general better cuz of lighter crowds... when really the crowds were caused by completely random things. Next year it might rain more in the 3rd week.

You can still draw general ideas from them... like on a weekend it'll be busier than on a weekday, and on holiday weekends it'll be really busy... but on a Mon-Fri to say one park is going to be optimal Tuesday vs Wednesday while others are bad is anyone's guess.

And you can also consider this... if everyone did pick days logically, they would all follow the crowd calendars. And if they did that, then the recommended days would be the worst. So clearly the crowd calculators are predicated on most guests not picking logically to begin with.

I disagree; there is no way the fluctuation in crowd sizes is random. The logic used by the crowd planners is sound; especially regarding events scheduled on particular days (e.g. EMH, parades, firework and night shows, etc.). There are issues that will impact the actual crowd numbers so there is a certain amount of variation. The crowd levels predicted day-to-day during the time period that a guest will visit WDW give good indications of when the crowds will be lower for each park.

Most guests do not park hop and will select parks based on many of the factors noted by the crowd planners. A good example is when we visited the MK during the day with Nights of Joy scheduled that night. The park was practically empty during the day and noticably more crowded on the following day when the park was open for a "full" day for guests complete with night parade and fireworks.

Many guests don't check the crowd planners predictions but they do check park hours and the schedule of park events. Also, many guests that do check the crowd planner sites will have priorities that go against selecting the recommended parks.

TP claims to take into account hotel bookings and WDW specials and other known events taking place. Over the years, the actual number of people visiting the parks during a particular time of the year will vary but the relative predictions still ring true.