DVCNews article on August 2025 Direct Sales

[DanCali]

As to whether RIV sales are lower than Poly currently because of the resale restrictions, I just don't think that's a good test case - RIV is 6 years old, PIT is brand new. If they were both brand new and PIT was still outselling RIV, then it's a much more clear test case. Personally, looking at the full historical data on RIV since it opened, I have a hard time concluding that resale restrictions have had any meaningful impact on RIV sales. I think this bookmarked post and some other parts of the thread is a very good one for anyone who is interested in more of the RIV sales history: https://www.disboards.com/threads/first-riviera-rofr.3971706/page-12#post-66328828

I think the thing missing from that older argument that Riviera sales have not lagged VGF/BPK sales is that the resale price of Riviera at the time as in the $130s-$140s and was at least in the same ballpark as VGF ($150s). That may have given people the premature impression that restrictions do not affect resale prices that much. That's no longer the case with Riviera resale in the low $100s and PVB resale in the $150-$160s. With the impact on resale prices becoming more and more evident, the hesitance of buyers who consider prevailing resale prices as a material factor in a direct purchase has also increased.

Here's the 5-year trend for PVB rofrs of 100-260 points from dvcrofr.com - it's basically flat:





Here's the Riviera data - as you get more resale supply, prices have gone down:

 

[airjay75]

I think the thing missing from that older argument that Riviera sales have not lagged VGF/BPK sales is that the resale price of Riviera at the time as in the $130s-$140s and was at least in the same ballpark as VGF ($150s). That may have given people the premature impression that restrictions do not affect resale prices that much. That's no longer the case with Riviera resale in the low $100s and PVB resale in the $150-$160s. With the impact on resale prices becoming more and more evident, the hesitance of buyers who consider prevailing resale prices as a material factor in a direct purchase has also increased.

Here's the 5-year trend for PVB rofrs of 100-260 points from dvcrofr.com - it's basically flat:



View attachment 1009877

Here's the Riviera data - as you get more resale supply, prices have gone down:


View attachment 1009878

Well, that is definitely the first good, plausible argument I’ve heard to explain the older sales data. I guess it depends, in part, on what one thinks of that mythical “average DVC owner” and how much attention they pay to resale values when buying direct. I’m probably on the more skeptical side of that and think most of the RIV vs. PIT sales differences are explained by older vs. newer, but it is at least plausible that it is only in the past few years that the low resale value of RIV has become clear and, thus, depressed RIV sales. Wish we didn’t have so many confounding variables. Perhaps LSL will give us the next good test case.