DVCNews article on August 2025 Direct Sales

[DanCali]

As to whether RIV sales are lower than Poly currently because of the resale restrictions, I just don't think that's a good test case - RIV is 6 years old, PIT is brand new. If they were both brand new and PIT was still outselling RIV, then it's a much more clear test case. Personally, looking at the full historical data on RIV since it opened, I have a hard time concluding that resale restrictions have had any meaningful impact on RIV sales. I think this bookmarked post and some other parts of the thread is a very good one for anyone who is interested in more of the RIV sales history: https://www.disboards.com/threads/first-riviera-rofr.3971706/page-12#post-66328828

I think the thing missing from that older argument that Riviera sales have not lagged VGF/BPK sales is that the resale price of Riviera at the time as in the $130s-$140s and was at least in the same ballpark as VGF ($150s). That may have given people the premature impression that restrictions do not affect resale prices that much. That's no longer the case with Riviera resale in the low $100s and PVB resale in the $150-$160s. With the impact on resale prices becoming more and more evident, the hesitance of buyers who consider prevailing resale prices as a material factor in a direct purchase has also increased.

Here's the 5-year trend for PVB rofrs of 100-260 points from dvcrofr.com - it's basically flat:





Here's the Riviera data - as you get more resale supply, prices have gone down:

 

[airjay75]

I think the thing missing from that older argument that Riviera sales have not lagged VGF/BPK sales is that the resale price of Riviera at the time as in the $130s-$140s and was at least in the same ballpark as VGF ($150s). That may have given people the premature impression that restrictions do not affect resale prices that much. That's no longer the case with Riviera resale in the low $100s and PVB resale in the $150-$160s. With the impact on resale prices becoming more and more evident, the hesitance of buyers who consider prevailing resale prices as a material factor in a direct purchase has also increased.

Here's the 5-year trend for PVB rofrs of 100-260 points from dvcrofr.com - it's basically flat:



View attachment 1009877

Here's the Riviera data - as you get more resale supply, prices have gone down:


View attachment 1009878

Well, that is definitely the first good, plausible argument I’ve heard to explain the older sales data. I guess it depends, in part, on what one thinks of that mythical “average DVC owner” and how much attention they pay to resale values when buying direct. I’m probably on the more skeptical side of that and think most of the RIV vs. PIT sales differences are explained by older vs. newer, but it is at least plausible that it is only in the past few years that the low resale value of RIV has become clear and, thus, depressed RIV sales. Wish we didn’t have so many confounding variables. Perhaps LSL will give us the next good test case.

 

[Sandisw]

Well, that is definitely the first good, plausible argument I’ve heard to explain the older sales data. I guess it depends, in part, on what one thinks of that mythical “average DVC owner” and how much attention they pay to resale values when buying direct. I’m probably on the more skeptical side of that and think most of the RIV vs. PIT sales differences are explained by older vs. newer, but it is at least plausible that it is only in the past few years that the low resale value of RIV has become clear and, thus, depressed RIV sales. Wish we didn’t have so many confounding variables. Perhaps LSL will give us the next good test case.

I was talking today with some people at the pool at RIV.

They love it and want to be there most of the time but don’t want to totally give up the option to stay elsewhere, especially at new resorts that come online.

I think that plays a role in why you have people choose RiV because it’s about the stay and not the resale value when and if they might sell.

That is certainly us. It’s the same for people who buy BWV or BCV even though it ends in 16 years.

It’s the top choice and resale value matters is simply not that important. The benefit for those though is that the come with the ability to stay elsewhere where RIV resale does not.

I do think those that love RIV and staying there, even if they know the resale value is lower than others, may simply decide it’s not important enough to give up owning there

I am still not yet convinced resale RiV wont stabilize into the $120s when it’s sold out.

 

[Brian Noble]

I know I am repeating myself, but there is ample evidence that resale value does not matter, and it is: Marriott, Hilton, and (especially) Wyndham continue to sell timeshares for prices similar to DVC.

I’m probably on the more skeptical side of that and think most of the RIV vs. PIT sales differences are explained by older vs. newer

I think the difference is that one is the Polynesian, and one is not.

RIV is kind of like Pittsburgh. No one understands why anyone would live there until they do it, and then it is just obvious. And yes, I used to live there. Fight for the glory of Carnegie! Fight for the glory of the clan

 

[DanCali]

I know I am repeating myself, but there is ample evidence that resale value does not matter, and it is: Marriott, Hilton, and (especially) Wyndham continue to sell timeshares for prices similar to DVC.

Resale value doesn't matter to the timeshare developer or to the buyers?

The developer may still sell, but I don't think you can say resale values don't matter to buyers, especially with Marriott where you can buy resale points for ~$6 all-in cost ($3 resale cost and $3 Marriott "junk fee") and those resale points that are 100% identical to what the developer is selling for ~$17/pt. So it's not that the buyers don't care - most just don't know about that option... And if they are lucky to find tug in the first 10 days they promptly cancel.

Also, Marriott does offer a program for "informed" buyers where they will enroll resale weeks into the exchange program and also sell you an (enrolled) deeded week along with some points do reduce the blow of the high maintenance fees of the points. I would consider overpaying for a Marriott direct purchase if I had a few unenrolled resale weeks in my back pocket and wanted to get them into the system (would be similar to taking a bunch of Riviera resale points and making them 100% functional and able to trade everywhere when you buy a direct DVC contract)

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Interesting. Agree with above that restrictions matter. We have toyed with direct vs. Resale riv. The resale cost tips the scales to resale. All who bought riv direct during xovid years congrats to as the pricing was very fare. Poly is the better buy, direct or resale since resale is holding. Ultimately i think the future for dvc resales in around 10 to 20 years time will be significantly less and gone will be the days of dvc holding their value or being more than original direct prices. Disney will still hold value with direct prices and the perks but resale will have a substancial discount over direct in line with riv direct to resale, vs vgf original direct to resale. I am sad about the changes.

 

[DoubleBaconBLT]

I was thinking Poly would be wrapping up around 2027 so the focus could be on LSL and they could make another resort opening announcement around 2028. It's definitely time to ramp up the incentives there. I'm on the cusp of adding on right now, but was really looking for a little bit more...Bring back the easy developer credit for $1k -$1.5k on top of something like the $500 Disney+ credit. IDK. The welcome weeks incentives are a good start though.

You could buy tomorrow, then if the new incentives are better, they will rewrite your deal to use those instead.

If neither are good enough, you could always cancel completely within 10 days under the Florida timeshare law.

 

[DoubleBaconBLT]

Interesting. Agree with above that restrictions matter. We have toyed with direct vs. Resale riv. The resale cost tips the scales to resale. All who bought riv direct during xovid years congrats to as the pricing was very fare. Poly is the better buy, direct or resale since resale is holding. Ultimately i think the future for dvc resales in around 10 to 20 years time will be significantly less and gone will be the days of dvc holding their value or being more than original direct prices. Disney will still hold value with direct prices and the perks but resale will have a substancial discount over direct in line with riv direct to resale, vs vgf original direct to resale. I am sad about the changes.

We debated Poly vs Riv and went with Poly because we'd probably rather stay there, and we can get connecting studios for our larger family. The dues are also lower.

I disagree on your 10-20 year projection. I think with Villains & Cars land, MK resorts are going to skyrocket in popularity, rack rate, and DVC resale price. I think you won't be able to buy Poly, GFV, or BLT below about $200 per point in ten years. Just look at DVC resale prices from ten years ago. My sleeper pick for biggest value increase over that stretch is actually CCV. It's still pretty easy to find a contract in the $130s right now, and with the long expiration, low dues, proximity to MK, and overall theming & vibe that place has, I think the value will run way higher.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

We debated Poly vs Riv and went with Poly because we'd probably rather stay there, and we can get connecting studios for our larger family. The dues are also lower.

I disagree on your 10-20 year projection. I think with Villains & Cars land, MK resorts are going to skyrocket in popularity, rack rate, and DVC resale price. I think you won't be able to buy Poly, GFV, or BLT below about $200 per point in ten years. Just look at DVC resale prices from ten years ago. My sleeper pick for biggest value increase over that stretch is actually CCV. It's still pretty easy to find a contract in the $130s right now, and with the long expiration, low dues, proximity to MK, and overall theming & vibe that place has, I think the value will run way higher.

I agree with the MK legacy resorts holding value longer, but I think the new resorts with the restrictions in place limits resale value. Resale for new resorts will come down to buy where you want to stay.

 

[BeachClub2014]

There is zero empirical evidence that draws a connection between restrictions on resale contracts at Riviera and its current resale market valuation. There's a ton of speculation, but no objective evidence.

 

[Brian Noble]

I mean, that's true.

On the other hand, the "product" you are buying as a resale purchaser at a restricted resort is very different from the "product" at one of the O14. And, if you swapped RIV and Poly with respect to restrictions, their resale prices might not cross, but I would bet money that RIV's resale value would be higher and Poly's lower.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Probably. Maybe. But we don't know. One could also argue that the "product" you are buying at Poly is very different from the "product" you are buying at Riviera. Very different beyond just the resale restrictions.

The point remains that many people here (not pointing fingers at anyone) are quick to conclude that the restrictions on Riviera resale contracts are the driving force behind the current market valuation. To do so completely ignores a myriad of other variables.

It does make for an interesting discussion, but that's about it.

 

[airjay75]

I suppose it is technically speculative to suggest that a RIV resale contract where the points could be used at RIV and all of the O14 resorts would be priced much higher than current RIV resale contracts that do carry restrictions. No such resale contract has ever been placed into the resale market since none exist. But, if one seriously thinks that a hypothetical RIV resale contract without the restrictions would have similar pricing to the restricted RIV resale contracts that do exist, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

 

[Tumnus]

Some people don't care about the restrictions and will buy RIV or Poly because that's where they want to stay year after year.

However, I would then ask those with existing DVC-Y status (since it sounds you are already DVC-Y due to a prior VGF direct purchase) - why buy anything direct going forward? If you just want points to stay at that one resort year after year after year, then just buy PVB resale (which actually gives you access to 14 resorts) or even RIV resale (and save 50% vs direct) if that's where your heart was.

Regardless of that, there seems to be not an insignificant group of (potential) direct buyers who care about resale values. They may buy direct if the price difference vs resale is not "too big" either to more easily justify the purchase or reassure themselves about a potentially smaller capital loss in the event of a sale. RIV and PIT and both very high end "Deluxe" resorts in highly desirable locations. That fact that the latter sells for 10% more in price and also 30% more in quantity implies it's much more desirable, and it's probably not due to location or amenities. It's most likely attributable to that added resale restriction that makes RIV a much less effective timeshare to a subsequent buyer, and thus also worth much less on the resale market.

I had DVC-Y status and still bought direct more. Main reasons are (1) to have two direct contracts for my kids if we have to pass them down, and (2) I like staying at all the resorts including any future new ones. Having no restrictions whatsoever is nice, and our Riv resale (despite missing the welcome home bonus that started right after we bought) was a good deal for a direct contract. I have no intention of ever selling. If I bought again, it would likely be resale unless there was a great firesale direct, then I wouldn't hesitate.

 

[Sandisw]

There is zero empirical evidence that draws a connection between restrictions on resale contracts at Riviera and its current resale market valuation. There's a ton of speculation, but no objective evidence.

I think there is some reduction for resale value because it’s one resort.

However, I don’t think the price in comparison to some of the others that give you O14 is as bad as some thought it would be.

You have people paying similar pricing for RIV and CCV and BLT.

You have people paying more for it than SSR, OKW and AKV.

Resort still matters the most and IMO, it wasn’t going to hold the same value resale, even without restrictions as VGF and PVB.

 

[Brian Noble]

Probably. Maybe. But we don't know.

We do not know in the epistemological sense. If I remember my PHIL 122*, I also don't know if the floor will hold me up the next time I try to step on it. After all, electrons may cease to repel each other! But, in all of the possible future universes, the ones in which electrons do continue to repel one another are vastly more likely than the ones in which they do not. So I am willing to step on the floor without worrying about this.

In the same way, I think it is much more likely that restrictions have some influence over resale prices than not. Note I am not making any claim about how much that influence is, only that it is non-zero, and negative.

many people here (not pointing fingers at anyone) are quick to conclude that the restrictions on Riviera resale contracts are the driving force behind the current market valuation

Well, we also definitely do not know they are the driving force! We have no idea how buyers collectively value the freedom of resort choice vs. how they value having RIV be their resort-of-choice.

But there is a lot of room between "They have no impact" and "They are the driving force."

-----
*: This was my favorite class as an undergraduate, which is odd given that I am a computer science professor. A lot had to do with the professor who taught the course. He was both incredibly frustrating and brilliant---those two facts are related.

 

[BeachClub2014]

In the same way, I think it is much more likely that restrictions have some influence over resale prices than not. Note I am not making any claim about how much that influence is, only that it is non-zero, and negative.

But there is a lot of room between "They have no impact" and "They are the driving force."

Agree. I hadn't suggested that restrictions played no part in setting the market price for resales; I've just maintained that they aren't the only factor and may not even be the driving factor.

It's a fun discussion and an interesting debate, but that's about the extent of it.

 

[DanCali]

There is zero empirical evidence that draws a connection between restrictions on resale contracts at Riviera and its current resale market valuation. There's a ton of speculation, but no objective evidence.

There is plenty empirical evidence at how these types of restrictions affected resale values at other timeshare developers, specifically the Vistana Westin/Sheraton timeshares (formerly Starwood Vacation ownership, now part of Marriott Vacation Club).

There are nuances with weeks vs points, season types, and the type of restrictions, but suffice it to say that, once the market stabilized, you literally had once category of timeshares that held its resale values (unrestricted, high season) and once that was near-zero (restricted, regardless of season).

If you have access to Redweek just take a look at the Westin Kierland Villas (in the AZ desert) 2BR high season resale prices ($12-$16K) versus Westin Desert Willow (in the CA desert) 2BR high season resale prices which are going for near zero. Both are Westin, both highly popular in the winter months, but the one in Scottsdale can trade internally into a 2BR Westin in Hawaii (where dues are almost double) using points, while the one in Palm Desert can only try to trade via Interval.

I think there is some reduction for resale value because it’s one resort.

However, I don’t think the price in comparison to some of the others that give you O14 is as bad as some thought it would be.

Even though the resort is only 5 years old, and still in active sales, there is plenty of evidence that resale prices at RIV have decreased at a rapid pace since 2022, while resorts like PVB, BLT, VGF have not decreased much at all. I'm not trying to bash Riviera as a resort (I love the resort itself) but when the supply of a lousy product (due to restrictions imposed by the developer) increases, prices do go down... And it's inevitable supply will continue to increase over the next 5 years as more original buyers sell due to various reasons.

If you perceive the value of a timeshare as $X due to usage at home resort and $Y due to flexibility to trade, with the total resale value being X+Y, that "Y" part for Riviera is zero. Whether Y is 20% of the total value or 60% of the total value may be resort dependent (e.g., lower for VGC and higher for SSR) and subjective, but overall some value is lost due to restrictions. For most resorts, I'd put it personally closer to 50%, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it settle at half the price of prime O14 resorts expiring in the 2060s. But that's just a personal opinion given to how much less I'd be willing to pay for my own resale contracts if they were restricted. In the end, supply and demand will determine the resale price....

 

[disneylandtour]

Some people don't care about the restrictions and will buy RIV or Poly because that's where they want to stay year after year.

Clearly there's a chunk of buyers who don't care (and likely aren't even aware) of resale restrictions when buying direct. But I also think there is a reasonably sized group that is aware and does care to some extent. They may also be aware of lower resale value on the restricted resorts. And I think some of this (again, only part of the overall group of those who purchase direct--as a guess, 25%) are swayed by the restrictions and lower resale value, which I'm guessing accounts for some of the sales pattern differences.