DVC Room Availability Limited

[crisi]

I mean the resort might be at 100% occupancy but as I stated previously it depends when it was filled (i.e. does a recession cause the rooms to be rented or reserved later) and how much breakage was utilized. Without DVC sharing their numbers, which they won’t, anything either of us say is conjecture. Though I’m going to avoid discussing if a recession will affect the rental market, it’s something that will be tested again soon enough. But as I stated the bull market might (most likely has) have increased the rental market but a recession might not do the opposite.

Also points do go to waste every single year. Breakage income does exist and can’t exist at the scale it does if points weren’t being wasted.

Yes they do, I just don't see any indication that happens less often in a great economy than in a good one. Or that rooms reserve faster in a great economy than a good one. Or that its even a factor given our current great economy is currently in year EIGHT.

 

[crvetter]

Yes they do, I just don't see any indication that happens less often in a great economy than in a good one. Or that rooms reserve faster in a great economy than a good one. Or that its even a factor given our current great economy is currently in year EIGHT.

My point is there really isn’t much of an indication if that happened more in a good or bad simply because of the way the booking system was at the time and DVC not sharing the info. But we do know in a down economy Disney as a whole was a lot less attractive as was vacationing as a whole.

I mean to say something might not have an increasing impact now in year ten is very different than saying it has never had an impact that might have plateaued which would be my standpoint.

 

[FreeTime]

When we bought DVC we discussed what we would do if the economy were bad. We made a commitment to still go since we would be paying the dues, but instead of going to the parks use the pool and hang out. Our thought was, we’d be buying groceries at home so we could buy groceries in Florida instead. All the money we had to save was the gas to get there. I think that as others have said, with more members there was more that try to exchange at 7 months so it is difficult to do.

 

[browniemtb]

I agree, over the years it has become harder and harder to get what you want at 5 to 7 months. That being said, I just booked this morning at our home resort for Thanksgiving, right at the 11 month mark. Even on day one, for what we need, there were no standard views or boardwalk views left at BWV. Forget about last minute trips like we did years ago when airlines had deals and stuff. Just plan ahead I guess.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I agree, over the years it has become harder and harder to get what you want at 5 to 7 months. That being said, I just booked this morning at our home resort for Thanksgiving, right at the 11 month mark. Even on day one, for what we need, there were no standard views or boardwalk views left at BWV. Forget about last minute trips like we did years ago when airlines had deals and stuff. Just plan ahead I guess.

I think that’s sad. Not the end of the world, but my guess is people are walking, thus negating the 11 month booking chance for others. I was hoping for SV later next year.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Also Rise of the Resistance Star Wars ride is now open. In two years, Disney’s 50th birthday celebration begins. The situation will only get worse.

 

[DVCPAT]

Yes they do, I just don't see any indication that happens less often in a great economy than in a good one. Or that rooms reserve faster in a great economy than a good one. Or that its even a factor given our current great economy is currently in year EIGHT.

Boom times might have an affect on studio availability. I find myself reserving studios multiple times per year verses fewer stays in 1 & 2 bedroom villas. When my investment returns are great, I try and vacation more often.
I bought DVC in 1999 after a great year in the market.. if I remember correctly, 57 dollars per point

 

[crisi]

Boom times might have an affect on studio availability. I find myself reserving studios multiple times per year verses fewer stays in 1 & 2 bedroom villas. When my investment returns are great, I try and vacation more often.
I bought DVC in 1999 after a great year in the market.. if I remember correctly, 57 dollars per point

But that would assume that is normal behavior that is triggered by an up economy - and I don't doubt its your behavior, but I doubt that its normal enough to affect availability patterns over 6500 rooms. You want to know what my behavior is - I doubt its normal, but I also doubt its unique - it will be at least five years between our WDW vacations. In an up economy, I have the money to go other places - last year I spent a week in London, two in Africa and two in Australia - and a brief stay in Amsterdam. We use our points for HHI in the middle of Winter when availability isn't a problem there at all. I would expect other patterns as well that would reduce the impact of "spending more nights at Disney and booking more studios" - for instance, an up economy might encourage members to invite guests and get larger rooms to accomodate them - suddenly your sister and her family can afford park tickets - so you might as well book a two bedroom and invite them. Or splurge for bigger rooms for your family, since you don't need to spend more days at Disney and will spend some time on a beach in the Caribbean. Or try and book Aulani - Hawaii is expensive, but in a good economy consumer confidence goes up and people spend more - which would tighten availability in Aulani, but open it up at WDW.

 

[Brian Noble]

That has little to do with booking a timeshare. With a timeshare and use em or lose em points, the economy has to be BAD for the points not to get used.

I suspect we’d be surprised by how many points go unused. DVCMC reports maximum breakage revenue to the resort budgets every single year.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I suspect we’d be surprised by how many points go unused. DVCMC reports maximum breakage revenue to the resort budgets every single year.

So breakage revenue reflects unused points? Does an increase in breakage revenue mean there are more units available (any direct correlation)?

 

[Brian Noble]

So breakage revenue reflects unused points? Does an increase in breakage revenue mean there are more units available (any direct correlation)?

My understanding is that breakage revenue comes from rooms that are otherwise unused that WDTC is able to rent out, with some of the proceeds (up to a cap) offsetting Member Dues. Those rooms are those that are not (a) booked directly on Points, (b) deposited to RCI or another BVTC partner to compensate for outbound exchanges, (c) given to WDTC to rent out to pay for "internal" exchanges like DCL, ABD, etc., or (d) owned by DVD for maintenance or because it is undeclared inventory.

I don't know that it correlates to available units, but there probably is *some* relationship. I believe Disney is allowed to remove rooms at 60 days, and there may be other circumstances in which they can do that. Beach Club, probably one of the most in-demand resorts, reported breakage income in excess of 2.5% in 2018

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.g...iation-notices/2018/2018-Condo-Notice-BCV.pdf

 

[crisi]

I suspect we’d be surprised by how many points go unused. DVCMC reports maximum breakage revenue to the resort budgets every single year.

I'm sure we would be - as someone who has let points expires several times, perhaps me less than others, but I still doubt that it has a high Rsquared to any economic indicators.

 

[Brian Noble]

I still doubt that it has a high Rsquared to any economic indicators.

Why not? We certainly saw such trends during the recession---many many more points available for rent or for sale. Why wouldn't the same be true of unused points?

(Edited to add: the reason I suspect there is some correlation is that other timeshare systems are also seeing more constrained inventory recently vs. 5-10 years ago. That suggests some underlying process that has nothing to do with the particulars of DVC that explains at least part of the tightening of DVC inventory.)

 

[crisi]

Because you'd have the opposite driver as well - in a good economy, who cares if you waste points - the people who waste points become even less concerned about using them. Which would create balance against wasting points because you can't afford to go.

 

[bakerworld]

IMO the studios and 3br are where the lack of availability really shows up. At 3 to 5 months out I can find 1br and 2br availability but not in the lower point selections. The silver lining features: DH is finally getting to stay in villas that he was anticipating when he joined DVC, he doesn't gripe about me only booking 4 nights a stay and I get to cruise more.

 

[zavandor]

My understanding is that breakage revenue comes from rooms that are otherwise unused that WDTC is able to rent out, with some of the proceeds (up to a cap) offsetting Member Dues. Those rooms are those that are not (a) booked directly on Points, (b) deposited to RCI or another BVTC partner to compensate for outbound exchanges, (c) given to WDTC to rent out to pay for "internal" exchanges like DCL, ABD, etc., or (d) owned by DVD for maintenance or because it is undeclared inventory.

I don't know that it correlates to available units, but there probably is *some* relationship. I believe Disney is allowed to remove rooms at 60 days, and there may be other circumstances in which they can do that. Beach Club, probably one of the most in-demand resorts, reported breakage income in excess of 2.5% in 2018

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.g...iation-notices/2018/2018-Condo-Notice-BCV.pdf

I don't think we know everything about how breakage works. There are a few unknowns. For example, when a 2BR lockoff is booked as a studio + 1BR, members pay the lockoff premium, are those points used to book rooms for breakage?
BCV is very hard to get at 7 months and even 1BR disappear very quickly also in off season, how is it possible that even a single room goes into breakage?
Someone says that Disney can "anticipate breakage" and book earlier than 60 days. Others that given resort points exchange breakage from other resorts might be redistributed among all resorts.

 

[djtx]

Okay - tried again for four months out - ZERO inventory for a studio, 1 or 2BR at ANY resort. I guess it's getting to the point that the only option is the home resort 11 months out. It's been a good 13 year run with a lot of flexibility. I'm glad that the kids were able to enjoy it for that long and stayed in many resorts! Since I'll have to bank my points, it will be a good resell option.

 

[tjkraz]

Okay - tried again for four months out - ZERO inventory for a studio, 1 or 2BR at ANY resort. I guess it's getting to the point that the only option is the home resort 11 months out.

There is a MAJOR difference between “nothing available 4 months out” and “guess the only option is to book Home at 11 months”.

 

[Sandisw]

Okay - tried again for four months out - ZERO inventory for a studio, 1 or 2BR at ANY resort. I guess it's getting to the point that the only option is the home resort 11 months out. It's been a good 13 year run with a lot of flexibility. I'm glad that the kids were able to enjoy it for that long and stayed in many resorts! Since I'll have to bank my points, it will be a good resell option.

I am very confused at what you are searching, I just entered March 28th to April 4th, which is 4 months from today. There are several options available in different room categories.

Studios, not so much, but you could definitely book an entire week right now at WDW 4 months out in 1 and 2 bedrooms at several of the resorts,

 

[tjkraz]

I am very confused at what you are searching, I just entered March 28th to April 4th, which is 4 months from today. There are several options available in different room categories.

Studios, not so much, but you could definitely book an entire week right now at WDW 4 months out in 1 and 2 bedrooms at several of the resorts,

Same. One Bedroom available at a half-dozen different resorts for most/all of April and May. I didn’t look closely at Studios but SSR and OKW have them available most nights.