DVC resale rising prices

[Leight19]

I think a lot of people hit on a lot of good points. I know numerous people who did not lose work during covid and from the stimulus money, the reduced spending with closures, and saving on child care they now have more disposable income then ever. I could easily see them splurging in dvc and if this trend is what drove prices up, I wonder how stable they will be in future as people return to normal spending habits.

I’m also interested in how the surplus of points will impact value. With all these points in system there is bound to be inventory issues over next few years. This will likely trickle down into rental market as well if people have points they can’t use. Adding even more to this issue will be Disney discounts; if they have trouble filling resorts once open (especially deluxe) how agressive will they get with discounts? What will new/perspective owners think about buying dvc when they compare prices if cash rooms have better availability and are 40% off?

 

[MinnieSueB]

Sure looks like a big swing now to me. Check out VGF! I bought in the 150s over the summer.

SSR has had a huge swing too. I bought my 1st resale in April during the shutdown (200 SSR $90/point) & so wish I had bought more! I was looking at those VGF at $148 then & now getting ready to close one at $165. Oh well, still excited to be at VGF.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I think a lot of people hit on a lot of good points. I know numerous people who did not lose work during covid and from the stimulus money, the reduced spending with closures, and saving on child care they now have more disposable income then ever. I could easily see them splurging in dvc and if this trend is what drove prices up, I wonder how stable they will be in future as people return to normal spending habits.

I’m also interested in how the surplus of points will impact value. With all these points in system there is bound to be inventory issues over next few years. This will likely trickle down into rental market as well if people have points they can’t use. Adding even more to this issue will be Disney discounts; if they have trouble filling resorts once open (especially deluxe) how agressive will they get with discounts? What will new/perspective owners think about buying dvc when they compare prices if cash rooms have better availability and are 40% off?

I just priced a 6 night OKW Studio in June with 30% off and it was $2958. Yikes!

Those 6 nights points for an OKW Studio is 73. Averaging $8 PP MF's that is only $584!

That savings is enough to buy tickets for two, meals and a few trinkets. Going forward as pent up demand grows, IMHO there will be less aggressive discounts for all resorts. WDW only discounts when they have to. I think DVC is about the only way to combat retail and discounted prices at Disney resorts - just my opinion.

DVC will likely continue to raise direct prices with resale following behind. There are still deals out there in fact we bid on another contract yesterday and will get paperwork tomorrow. We closed on a sale Friday as well. Honestly, we could not afford to stay in 1 and 2 BR villas if we were paying even a discounted rate, so this is where we are at...it's our happy place.

 

[Evita_W]

Something else I think is a factor is we are seeing a major shift in the economy, overall COVID has shown us what really matters is time spent with family and friends over things. Instead of buying that new expensive TV, car, etc. People are finding they can live with what they have and would rather invest that money into experiences with family and friends, something which DVC is right inline to help them do and at more affordable rates long term.

I think this shift is here to stay and is going to keep resale prices high for a long time to come.

We were just in a position to addon and needed to do so due to DH getting more vacation time every year and had looked at resale, but the price difference with the direct incentives was so minimal that it didn't make sense to deal with the restrictions and potentially having a different use year, etc. so we went direct. I think this trend may continue for some time as well.

 

[Evita_W]

I think a lot of people hit on a lot of good points. I know numerous people who did not lose work during covid and from the stimulus money, the reduced spending with closures, and saving on child care they now have more disposable income then ever. I could easily see them splurging in dvc and if this trend is what drove prices up, I wonder how stable they will be in future as people return to normal spending habits.

I’m also interested in how the surplus of points will impact value. With all these points in system there is bound to be inventory issues over next few years. This will likely trickle down into rental market as well if people have points they can’t use. Adding even more to this issue will be Disney discounts; if they have trouble filling resorts once open (especially deluxe) how agressive will they get with discounts? What will new/perspective owners think about buying dvc when they compare prices if cash rooms have better availability and are 40% off?

I think you will see options for members to spend points out there. For example, I believe they could lower point values for Disney World resort rooms, even waive the exchange fee if regular rooms aren't filling. This would get points out of inventory and solve the issue you are describing at the same time.

I also would bet that they will continue to waive the RCI exchange fee for some time going forward.

They also have modified polices on using ABD to allow for more years worth of points to be able to be used at once.

They might also be able to get more creative, I don't know if something like this would legally be allowable, but perhaps they could offer to sell tickets, etc. in exchange for unused points. This getting the points out of circulation while still allowing.members to get value out of them.

 

[upritbass]

With all these points in system there is bound to be inventory issues over next few years.

That is why DVC is currently restricting Borrowing to 50%.

 

[CastAStone]

I thought prices would fall because people would sell contracts due to inability to pay dues. I don’t know about you all but the government has given this family for 4 about $10K in the last year or so. So inability to pay dues was never a thing, beyond some people at the margins.

We saw prices fall early on as people panicked that the buying market would dry up.

And honestly the downswing in prices was small if any.

It was about 15% at most resorts. Whether you consider that small or not is a matter of perspective.

But instead what happened is the buying market accelerated. Transactions are up. There’s less than half as many contracts on the market now as their were a year ago. A good bit less than half.


I think prices will fall again, but not until the demand side of the market falls, and even then, we won’t see them fall by much.

 

[Evita_W]

I think prices will fall again, but not until the demand side of the market falls, and even then, we won’t see them fall by much.

As I mentioned before, I don't think we are going to really see the demand side of the market fall anytime soon, if ever. If anything, Disney is making a huge mistake by suspending the reflections resort. I think demand is going to increase dramatically and very rapidly for both direct and resale.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I thought prices would fall because people would sell contracts due to inability to pay dues. I don’t know about you all but the government has given this family for 4 about $10K in the last year or so. So inability to pay dues was never a thing, beyond some people at the margins.

We saw prices fall early on as people panicked that the buying market would dry up.
It was about 15% at most resorts. Whether you consider that small or not is a matter of perspective.

But instead what happened is the buying market accelerated. Transactions are up. There’s less than half as many contracts on the market now as their were a year ago. A good bit less than half.


I think prices will fall again, but not until the demand side of the market falls, and even then, we won’t see them fall by much.

I feel like stimulus money may be bolstering sales, as well as families wanting to get outside of the house to do family activities. However, I think there is a good possibility for a post pandemic recession. We’ll see if people who have weathered the pandemic will be in a position to vacation and pay dues as time goes on. That may make your initial prediction correct.

Of course, I hope that doesn’t happen because it means a lot of people are hurting. It’s just a general statement about the possible future market.

 

[CastAStone]

As I mentioned before, I don't think we are going to really see the demand side of the market fall anytime soon, if ever. If anything, Disney is making a huge mistake by suspending the reflections resort. I think demand is going to increase dramatically and very rapidly for both direct and resale.

I don’t think it will be soon enough to be worth waiting for. Might be 8 months, might be a few years. Hard to nail down. I saw your earlier point about family time, and that’s true, but I’m not convinced that specifically ties in to DVC purchases at a scale that will make a substantial difference in price over the long term; I think people with that in mind have been/will be buying in a wave, and we’ll get through that wave into whatever phase comes next. But I don’t see the next phase having BCV at $150+ or BLT at $160+.

 

[Leight19]

I just priced a 6 night OKW Studio in June with 30% off and it was $2958. Yikes!

Those 6 nights points for an OKW Studio is 73. Averaging $8 PP MF's that is only $584!

That savings is enough to buy tickets for two, meals and a few trinkets. Going forward as pent up demand grows, IMHO there will be less aggressive discounts for all resorts. WDW only discounts when they have to. I think DVC is about the only way to combat retail and discounted prices at Disney resorts - just my opinion.

DVC will likely continue to raise direct prices with resale following behind. There are still deals out there in fact we bid on another contract yesterday and will get paperwork tomorrow. We closed on a sale Friday as well. Honestly, we could not afford to stay in 1 and 2 BR villas if we were paying even a discounted rate, so this is where we are at...it's our happy place.

I get slightly different numbers. For June 20 to 26 I see okw studio for $438 a night or $2628 for 6 nights without any discount. With 30% off this would fall to $1839.

For the same time I see this costing 88 points for dvc. If you assume $8 mf as only cost that’s $700. However, I think it’s more fair to at least break down the cost of contract over lifetime of usage which resale puts most around $11 to $12 a point. With this math you get ~$1000.

Now the math on this shows there is roughly $800 savings even with discount. However, the math looks slightly worse if you were to do this for 2 bedrooms and even worse for 1 bedrooms. In fact, in January I actually booked time in treehouse cash because with discounts it worked out to around $12 a point for dvc.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I get slightly different numbers. For June 20 to 26 I see okw studio for $438 a night or $2628 for 6 nights without any discount. With 30% off this would fall to $1839.

For the same time I see this costing 88 points for dvc. If you assume $8 mf as only cost that’s $700. However, I think it’s more fair to at least break down the cost of contract over lifetime of usage which resale puts most around $11 to $12 a point. With this math you get ~$1000.

Now the math on this shows there is roughly $800 savings even with discount. However, the math looks slightly worse if you were to do this for 2 bedrooms and even worse for 1 bedrooms. In fact, in January I actually booked time in treehouse cash because with discounts it worked out to around $12 a point for dvc.

I was looking at early in June, but regardless it is a big savings.

We didn't buy in 1996 just for financial reasons, though I must say the seven contracts bought in the past year are definitely all about that. I sold two to make a quick profit, bought during the "panic" last spring. Eventually, we will have paid next to nothing for all the contracts mostly by flipping and additionally renting.

We just enjoy WDW and love that our son and DIL, her Mom and two friends will join us this fall. We're spread out between a 2 BR lock off and two more studios at OKW for about two weeks. Life is short and Disney makes us happy!

Good deal on the Treehouse - we closed on a SSR Friday and though we've owned there before, we've wanted to stay in a Treehouse so let us know how it is LOL!

"Lifetime" depends on how old you are! DH retires in a couple years, so we can afford to add to our stash now and sell one here and there in retirement.

 

[Leight19]

I was looking at early in June, but regardless it is a big savings.

We didn't buy in 1996 just for financial reasons, though I must say the seven contracts bought in the past year are definitely all about that. I sold two to make a quick profit, bought during the "panic" last spring. Eventually, we will have paid next to nothing for all the contracts mostly by flipping and additionally renting.

We just enjoy WDW and love that our son and DIL, her Mom and two friends will join us this fall. We're spread out between a 2 BR lock off and two more studios at OKW for about two weeks. Life is short and Disney makes us happy!

Good deal on the Treehouse - we closed on a SSR Friday and though we've owned there before, we've wanted to stay in a Treehouse so let us know how it is LOL!

"Lifetime" depends on how old you are! DH retires in a couple years, so we can afford to add to our stash now and sell one here and there in retirement.

The treehouse are great rooms IMO (and was favorite for all kids staying with us). We only staid for one night and didn’t go to parks so remoteness wasn’t an issue. I would definitely stay there in future but would wait until at least the boats to Disney spring open and would definitely check cash vs point cost before using dvc points on it.

 

[Shamus]

I think you will see options for members to spend points out there. For example, I believe they could lower point values for Disney World resort rooms, even waive the exchange fee if regular rooms aren't filling. This would get points out of inventory and solve the issue you are describing at the same time.

I also would bet that they will continue to waive the RCI exchange fee for some time going forward.

They also have modified polices on using ABD to allow for more years worth of points to be able to be used at once.

They might also be able to get more creative, I don't know if something like this would legally be allowable, but perhaps they could offer to sell tickets, etc. in exchange for unused points. This getting the points out of circulation while still allowing.members to get value out of them.

I'm confused.
If you exchange into a WDW Resort room or ABD, DVCM takes your points to reserve a DVC room and makes the room available for cash through CRO.
If you exchange into RCI another RCI user will then exchange in and utilize your week in a DVC unit.
If you exchange for tickets what do they get in return if not the right to utilize your DVC room?
None of these options have a net increase effect on DVC room availability.
They just move points from your bucket into another.
So how do they help solve potential inventory problems?

 

[MICKIMINI]

The treehouse are great rooms IMO (and was favorite for all kids staying with us). We only staid for one night and didn’t go to parks so remoteness wasn’t an issue. I would definitely stay there in future but would wait until at least the boats to Disney spring open and would definitely check cash vs point cost before using dvc points on it.

The house we downsized from six years ago was just like a "treehouse" in the woods of NH. Just put us next to the pool and we'd be fine LOL!

 

[Evita_W]

I'm confused.
If you exchange into a WDW Resort room or ABD, DVCM takes your points to reserve a DVC room and makes the room available for cash through CRO.
If you exchange into RCI another RCI user will then exchange in and utilize your week in a DVC unit.
If you exchange for tickets what do they get in return if not the right to utilize your DVC room?
None of these options have a net increase effect on DVC room availability.
They just move points from your bucket into another.
So how do they help solve potential inventory problems?

The points can no longer be used to book a room, they essentially disappear from existence, just the same as if they expired, only the member got some value for them. Those points won't be able to be used to book in the future, so it helps with inventory issues.

 

[Sandisw]

I think you will see options for members to spend points out there. For example, I believe they could lower point values for Disney World resort rooms, even waive the exchange fee if regular rooms aren't filling. This would get points out of inventory and solve the issue you are describing at the same time.

I also would bet that they will continue to waive the RCI exchange fee for some time going forward.

They also have modified polices on using ABD to allow for more years worth of points to be able to be used at once.

They might also be able to get more creative, I don't know if something like this would legally be allowable, but perhaps they could offer to sell tickets, etc. in exchange for unused points. This getting the points out of circulation while still allowing.members to get value out of them.

Just remember, no matter what an owner does in terms of exchanges, the rooms go with it. So, it doesn’t actually take anything out of the system.

For example, if an owner books ABD with 4 years of points, DVC takes the number of rooms out of booking from others. It’s like the owner booked them anyway.

In terms of tickets, I don’t believe it can be legally done.

 

[JETSDAD]

The points can no longer be used to book a room, they essentially disappear from existence, just the same as if they expired, only the member got some value for them. Those points won't be able to be used to book in the future, so it helps with inventory issues.

That's not correct. They will be used to book a room for RCI or on the cash side to pay for the trade.

 

[Lorana]

Good deal on the Treehouse - we closed on a SSR Friday and though we've owned there before, we've wanted to stay in a Treehouse so let us know how it is LOL!

We did a big family stay in the treehouse two years ago with my husband's family (our family of four, his sister, husband and two kids, and his brother) and it was wonderful. We were a distance from the pool, but along the river, near to the DTD boat stop, and near a bus stop. We also had rental cars, but we mostly used Disney transportation (which is loooooong, as you catch a bus to the main SSR area, then a bus to the parks). We absolutely loved the treehouse, and would definitely do it again. Very scenic, really felt like an escape from the crowds of the park, and having all that space was great when we were in the room, plus being able to make big breakfasts and occasional dinners.

 

[Heather07438]

Many great points already made. I think there’s also another aspect of the people ending up with an extra lump of cash after getting trip refunds and foregoing other usual costly entertainment & excursions.

Some are familiar with DVC but never found it a priority to save up the seed money. Now they’re looking to visit WDW over the next year and they can either spend thousands to stay onsite one trip or buy in to DVC and set themselves up for many trips. People who wouldn’t have pulled the trigger normally but found themselves in an ideal position to do so this year.

We are all surprised how well this market fared. What’s up the road? Has it peaked? How much higher could it go? In a few years from now could everybody decide to sell their beanies babies at the same time? I surely have no idea.