DVC Resale Market Best Economical Report Spring 2023

[varns529]

Attached is the best economical report from dvcresalemarket for spring 2023.

Grand Floridian still the best economical, followed by Riviera and Saratoga Springs.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2023/

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

This list is pretty accurate, but taking cost of capital/time value of money and inflation into account, Riviera, Saratoga, and Aulani slot into 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Then everything else pretty much stays in order, except Grand Cal falls to the very bottom because of the very high upfront cost per point.

In my opinion, Riviera resale is undervalued and represents a great deal if you want to stay at Riviera. Cost per point is lower than VGF and it takes fewer points to stay there. Equivalent cost per room-night is less at Riviera (on resale points) than it is at VGF, Poly, BLT, Animal, Boulder Ridge, Boardwalk (non-std views), and Beach Club. And about on par with Copper Creek. The only cheaper option is buying Saratoga points and staying at Saratoga or Old Key West.

VDH isn't on that list yet, but would also slot at the bottom, likely just ahead of VGC. However, comparing them to WDW options isn't really fair as they are totally different animals. By my calculations, with VDH selling between 183-230, depending on contract size and incentive choices (magical beginnings) price parity is somewhere around VGC at $235-280. (depending on contract size and whether it's stripped or loaded). To make up for the higher effective dues, VDH must be bought at a roughly 20% discount to VGC in order to cost the same per point over the life of the contract, held to expiration.

Re: VGC, the referenced list is already behind the times putting average sale price at $257, as it seems VGC contracts aren't selling for less than $300pp now. Seems folks are willing to pay ~20% premium over $pp parity with VDH. I guess there is precedent for that kind of valuation as that is similar to the $ per room night premium Beach Club commands over other top resorts like VGF, Copper, Riviera, BLT.

My conclusion from this is that VDH came in more expensive than many were hoping/anticipating. However, I think this bodes well for VDH resale, as it is likely VDH dues will hold steady for a few years, decreasing the delta between its dues and VGC's.

Small VDH contracts shouldn't suffer the same resale restriction penalty Riviera seems to be exhibiting, and the scarcity and high price of VGC should help keep VDH resale elevated.

 

[RoseGold]

This list is pretty accurate, but taking cost of capital/time value of money and inflation into account, Riviera, Saratoga, and Aulani slot into 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Then everything else pretty much stays in order, except Grand Cal falls to the very bottom because of the very high upfront cost per point.

I agree. And that's even with SSR is WAAAY overvalued on that chart at 108. <100 SSR is totally reasonable right now, and that's a 10% cut off the top.

 

[Nursemanit]

They should not put RIV on this list - restricted is a different product.

With that VGF and Poly would be my 1 and 2 as monorail vs non monorail is also a factor

You have to factor in rental value as well, VGF or Poly rent quick for 20 vs 16 at SSR

 

[Jlo85]

This list is pretty accurate, but taking cost of capital/time value of money and inflation into account, Riviera, Saratoga, and Aulani slot into 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Then everything else pretty much stays in order, except Grand Cal falls to the very bottom because of the very high upfront cost per point.

Yeah, when I calculate Net Present Value in comparison to rental rates at David's and a 3% inflation rate for dues and rentals and 10% discount rate, it comes to the following. I feel like Grand Cal is a unique situation since it's far-and-away the most in-demand resort - rental rates don't really reflect that.

Ranking	Resort	NPV per Pt
1​	Aulani*	$85​
2​	Riviera***	$76​
3​	Animal Kingdom	$71​
4​	Saratoga Springs	$65​
5​	Polynesian	$62​
6​	Bay Lake Tower	$62​
7​	Grand Floridian	$61​
8​	Copper Creek	$60​
9​	Boulder Ridge	$50​
10​	Old Key West (Extended)	$45​
11​	Hilton Head	$38​
12​	Old Key West	$31​
13​	Boardwalk	$30​
14​	Vero Beach**	$29​
15​	Beach Club	$17​
16​	Grand Californian	($39)​

 

[RoseGold]

They should not put RIV on this list - restricted is a different product.

Eh, I mean RIV is still a WDW hotel, so the comparison is still a WDW hotel room. It's Aulani and VGC that aren't in the right sandbox.

 

[L+JDisneyFans]

I have always argued that these rankings are very inaccurate and somewhat misleading, as they don’t take into point charts. For example, a random 2 night stay in July ‘23 at a standard view Animal Kingdom Lodge 1BR is 60 points, and a 1BR at Grand Floridian for the same weekend is 96 points.

So, taking the points chart into account adds a multiplier of about 1.5 to VGF to AKL points, and makes those VGF points far less economical.

These rankings hold some water if you’re just using points for sleep around points, but I would posit that most VGF are not using their points for sleep around points.

In no way am I arguing that VGF shouldn’t cost more points per night than AKL, just think it’s misleading by arguing that VGF is actually cheaper on an absolute basis than AKL.

 

[crvetter]

I have always argued that these rankings are very inaccurate and somewhat misleading, as they don’t take into point charts. For example, a random 2 night stay in July ‘23 at a standard view Animal Kingdom Lodge 1BR is 60 points, and a 1BR at Grand Floridian for the same weekend is 96 points.

So, taking the points chart into account adds a multiplier of about 1.5 to VGF to AKL points, and makes those VGF points far less economical.

These rankings hold some water if you’re just using points for sleep around points, but I would posit that most VGF are not using their points for sleep around points.

In no way am I arguing that VGF shouldn’t cost more points per night than AKL, just think it’s misleading by arguing that VGF is actually cheaper on an absolute basis than AKL.

Somewhere about 2 years ago I did rankings based on cost of capital and the cost of room charts. I’ll try to dig for it here on boards to see if I can find it.

I know I showed the rankings were wildly inaccurate if you were buying for the 11 month window (obviously the 7 month window more accurate). And in my opinion during peak travel time these rankings are only helpful if you want a 1 bedroom for SAP because anything else you will basically be at OKW, SSR, and Kidani within 7 months.

 

[CarolMN]

I have always argued that these rankings are very inaccurate and somewhat misleading, as they don’t take into point charts. For example, a random 2 night stay in July ‘23 at a standard view Animal Kingdom Lodge 1BR is 60 points, and a 1BR at Grand Floridian for the same weekend is 96 points.

Yes, but when the home resort booking priority isn't needed, a point is a point is a point. The issue is: Where can you buy those 60 "sleep around" points for the least amount? Maybe in that case, VGF deserves to be ranked ahead of AKV.

I suspect we can come up with an analysis that supports whatever we wish. IMO, it's not primarily about the money IF you need the home resort booking window. If you don't, and only then, should $$ trump the heart.

 

[L+JDisneyFans]

Agreed that a point is fungible at 7 months, unless of course it’s RIV resale.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

They should not put RIV on this list - restricted is a different product.

With that VGF and Poly would be my 1 and 2 as monorail vs non monorail is also a factor

You have to factor in rental value as well, VGF or Poly rent quick for 20 vs 16 at SSR

True, these analyses don’t take resale value/potential or rental yield into consideration at all - they are based on buy and hold to expiration.

It’s completely possible that the most expensive contracts to buy today (VGC and VDH) work out to be the cheapest to own over the next 10-20 years if they continue to appreciate the way VGC has since it went on sale.