DVC Resale Inventory Increasing

[HBDad]

I’ve noticed overall DVC resale inventory has increased from low 1500 early April to almost 1800 today. CCV went from 72 to 113 listings. This is using a DVC aggregator website. This data mirrors my conversations with a top broker that they’re seeing a transition to a buyers market.

Is there a reason why there is more inventory now? Buyers may be less inclined to purchase due to higher interest rates and just lower investment portfolio values overall. If inventory continues to increase and listings stay out longer, I would expect prices to decline over time, at least temporarily.

 

[RoseGold]

VGF2 priced lower than lots of people expected, and the market hasn't adjusted yet. There's lots of listings, but the prices haven't moved much. I watch VGF, so its inventory is maybe not the best example. But, yea, lots on the market. And non-motivated sellers.

 

[MICKIMINI]

With few exceptions, DVC prices go up along with direct and will continue to climb. Those that want a deal need to study the market over a period of time and be able to spot a deal the minute it drops, make an offer and be the first one in. Personally, that has been my successful MO for over two decades.

 

[davidl81]

I think you can make an argument that the economy is not doing great (it’s not a recession, but inflation may be hurting some people more than others), and the stock market has been basically flat for a year now. So once people paid their annual dues this year maybe there is a little uptick in people who are ready to sell (and they may be attracted to sell at these higher level of prices).
What would be interesting to see is where prices go. If you start to see an actual drop in prices that would surprise me, I think you will just get a flattening of prices (no major increases) now that there is a little more supply on the market.

 

[sethschroeder]

Higher home/interest rates, continued inflation, continue cost of living increases, continued Disney price increases, 2 1/2 of the last 3 years no AP sales, Disney pushing budget cuts, Disney pushing political agendas.

All of this adds up to more people listing.

 

[TinkB278]

I was considering resale but at this point I feel like the prices aren’t low enough to justify having my points restricted rather than just buying something direct.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

Economy is doing worse than is presented to us. This is basically stagflation. I have an AKV contract up for $140pp and don't care at all whether and when anyone bites. Eventually direct prices will rise enough to make it look like a deal, and inflation will make the cost of it effectively lower and lower.

Sold all of my Disney stock btw and will only buy back in if they bring back Iger. How does a company with such priceless intellectual property lag the market so badly? Many missteps lately.

 

[Paul Stupin]

VGF2 priced lower than lots of people expected, and the market hasn't adjusted yet. There's lots of listings, but the prices haven't moved much. I watch VGF, so its inventory is maybe not the best example. But, yea, lots on the market. And non-motivated sellers.

I’d bet than in the medium term, in 18 months or so when VGF2 sells out, Grand Floridian resale prices will have a healthy bounce back. At that point all the new direct buyers won’t yet be selling, so if VGF1 owners are the primary sellers, they’ll represent a smaller percentage of the overall point pool, keeping resale supply somewhat limited and elevating prices.
All of this is just my long winded way of saying that I don’t blame current sellers from being non motivated. And in the short term those direct incentives will diminish every few months, making that resale $170-$180 price point look better and better.