DVC Purchase Conundrum

[Dean]

Just want to point out every SSR contract sold on the resale market adds another competitor at the 7 months mark, every resale buyer of BCV, BWV, VGF takes another room out of the pool at 7 months and increases competition for remaining rooms.

Likely not because the points are already bookable before and after the resale and the % of people who own SSR to book elsewhere is almost certainly already higher than most resorts on property and likely the highest of any WDW resorts even more than OKW. The bottom line is they're already in competition.

 

[CastAStone]

Just want to point out every SSR contract sold on the resale market adds another competitor at the 7 months mark, every resale buyer of BCV, BWV, VGF takes another room out of the pool at 7 months and increases competition for remaining rooms.

Meh. Maybe 1 in every 10. If a BCV owner is regularly using their points to stay anywhere else, they’d make a bunch of money selling and buying something else instead. So I’m not sure that pool of people is huge (just look at the availability charts)

I think the decreasing availability of rooms at 7 months has been far more driven by the blogger community suddenly di$covering David’s than anything else. Mega bloggers outside of the Disney community like The Points Guy have blasted it out there in the last few years. That’s how I found DVC in the first place.

 

[sethschroeder]

Likely not because the points are already bookable before and after the resale and the % of people who own SSR to book elsewhere is almost certainly already higher than most resorts on property and likely the highest of any WDW resorts even more than OKW. The bottom line is they're already in competition.

Except proportionally the OG buyers of SSR are more likely to book and stay at SSR than those purchasing SSR only as SAP today.

SSR has opposite impact as resorts like BCV.

Meh. Maybe 1 in every 10. If a BCV owner is regularly using their points to stay anywhere else, they’d make a bunch of money selling and buying something else instead. So I’m not sure that pool of people is huge (just look at the availability charts)

You missed my point.

Today you have 8 original owners in every 10. The 2 new owners only stay a BCV and 50% of the OG stay at BCV every year so 4 more rooms booked.

5 years from now 2 more owners old so you now have 4 owners resale only staying there and 50% of the remaining 6 OG. So you have moved from 6 rooms normally taken to 7 rooms normally taken.

Over time you can see the 7 month room count dwindle.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't subscribe to the "Buy where you would want to stay" but rather where you wouldn't mind staying which might be one and the same for some. I think the issue for many is that they really don't know where they want to stay long term though they often think they do and/or get caught up in a certain resort and it's emotions. I've seen even experienced owners who have changed their preferred location 3 or more times over the course of ownership. If you're flexible and plan ahead, you should not have any issues for August, esp the second half of August and 1 BR will be much easier for DVC in general, July might be more iffy esp the first half. SSR is the cheapest resort long term currently and with maintenance fees being such a large portion of the costs, almost certain to continue to be so. BLT will be second in all likelihood depending on the purchase price difference to other resorts esp AKV. So as long as you're OK staying at SSR occasionally, not that you'll likely have to other than short notice, I don't see any downside to the situation you've described. Just book SSR at 11 months and change at 7 months. Sounds like a July UY is an ideal one for you but June could be even better if you'll travel the 4th as the weekend before might be in June. I'd buy a small cushion over what you calculate you'll need in case your needs change and/or there is a reallocation. Don't forget to look at the charts for the more expensive resorts to make sure you cover needs to do those part of the time. One way to do so would be to calculate your needs based on the most expensive resort and unit you'd routinely use without routine banking/borrowing. That way you'll have plenty of wiggle room if you stay longer, need a 2 BR some of the time or are very successful getting the higher end options routinely. Also, assume you won't get the specialty rooms like value at AKV or standard at AKV, BLT or BWV as part of your calculations.

No July UY so definitely June seems like the ideal one. And I agree that summer offers a lot of flexibility for using SSR points at near park resorts,

So far, since 2017 when I bought my points there, I have always Been able to trade to other resorts....not only in summer, but winter And spring months too!

 

[Dean]

Except proportionally the OG buyers of SSR are more likely to book and stay at SSR than those purchasing SSR only as SAP today.

SSR has opposite impact as resorts like BCV.

I still don't agree as SSR was always a way to buy in but not use there. If anything, those buying there now are more likely to stay there routinely than those who bought in originally. As for the idea that the highest demand resorts offset that, which is how I took the BCV comment, it's really not any real offset. Those who buy at a higher demand resort should be planning to stay there much of the time and the reality is the when they don't they're very likely to look at other higher demand resorts and often by waitlist. When SSR was being sold by DVD originally it was the only resort available retail for a portion of the time and it was actively sold by DVD as a way to get into the system. Personally I don't think Disney Springs has made a big difference in the demand there but it might have help in a small way.

No July UY so definitely June seems like the ideal one. And I agree that summer offers a lot of flexibility for using SSR points at near park resorts,

So far, since 2017 when I bought my points there, I have always Been able to trade to other resorts....not only in summer, but winter And spring months too!

Duh, thanks.

 

[sethschroeder]

those buying there now are more likely to stay there routinely than those who bought in originally

The only resorts that even existed at WDW were OKW, BWV, BCV, VWL and they were all the same price point from what I understand. I can't believe more people bought percentage wise then than now to use it only as SAP.

Were they just never selling sold out resorts or buying back contracts back then?

 

[Dean]

The only resorts that even existed at WDW were OKW, BWV, BCV, VWL and they were all the same price point from what I understand. I can't believe more people bought percentage wise then than now to use it only as SAP.

Were they just never selling sold out resorts or buying back contracts back then?

While still in active sales add BCV & AKV to the mix and BLT was announced and that's not even counting the THV addition and SSR took forever to sell out. Also remember that DVC was MUCH easier to book then at 7 months than it is now so the risk was far less and IMO a veery large part of the increased difficulty is directly because of SSR and the issue being discussed. And for a portion of that time it was the only resort in active sales so if you wanted to buy in you had to buy there even if you wanted somewhere else. SSR was never a resort where the masses bought to stay at though some did and still do. I think the buying public is somewhat more aware of the options and the limitations now than they were then. Did they buy back and sell some of the "sold out" resorts, just but it's always been a minority of sales. Back then you had to specifically ask, and often times, really push the guides to even find out about buying at a sold out resort. We'll never know the actual % I suspect but the idea that SSR was originally sold to those wanting to stay there routinely and now it's a points cow is simply incorrect. Likely the only resorts that have a higher % of their points trying to book at 7 months at WDW are VB, Aulani and HHI.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Hi all,

I've been researching DVC for a few months now, and after a lot of consideration and weighing what's important to our family, we've decided to purchase a resale contract. Now that we've got through that decision, the next thing we face is where to buy?

Now I know the home resort mantra is "Buy where you would want to stay", and I completely get it. I love Wilderness Lodge, but the CC rooms are on the smaller side, and Boulder Ridge expiration date is a deal breaker. However, when you factor in upfront costs and dues over the life of the contract, SSR and OKW are very attractive. Specifically SSR.

We generally travel July-Aug which aren't peak times, and have some flexibility around booking. Sometimes we book out as far as 11 months, other times we don't. Just depends in life stuff. Therefore, I'm wondering if it makes more sense to buy more points at SSR to enable me stay in a 1BR at most other resorts on property? This doesn't mean I don't like SSR. I love the new rooms, pools, and access to Disney Springs. The food and size not so much, but it might be worth the trade off.

I checked out the room predictability chart for all the resorts here on the forums, and while it's not perfect and can't predict the future it does provide perspective on what's available at the 7 month mark. I noticed most resorts (with some exceptions) you can get a 1BR at 7 months without much angst. I understand the next 12-18 months might be challenging due to the the COVID impacts on DVC and the 50th approaching, but in general it seemed feasible to book.

Just wanted to get some feedback from others here on the forum.

Have you done something similar? What has been your experience? What do you recommend/suggest?

Appreciate your time.

Thank you,

Claudio

If you plan to stay in one bedrooms I would choose the resort where you can buy the most points which is typically SSR or OKW. One bedrooms are usually the last to go and most are available in the 7 month window.

 

[RoseGold]

Mega bloggers outside of the Disney community like The Points Guy have blasted it out there in the last few years. That’s how I found DVC in the first place.

I heard about DVC when my boomer in-laws were listening to Dave Ramsey years ago. I guess he had a sponsor at that time that dealt with scammy timeshares, so he took a lot of calls about not buying timeshares. He casually mentioned Disney as the exception in one of these calls.

I rented twice to make sure I wanted to be locked into this.

 

[CastAStone]

While still in active sales add BCV & AKV to the mix and BLT was announced and that's not even counting the THV addition and SSR took forever to sell out. Also remember that DVC was MUCH easier to book then at 7 months than it is now so the risk was far less and IMO a veery large part of the increased difficulty is directly because of SSR and the issue being discussed. And for a portion of that time it was the only resort in active sales so if you wanted to buy in you had to buy there even if you wanted somewhere else. SSR was never a resort where the masses bought to stay at though some did and still do. I think the buying public is somewhat more aware of the options and the limitations now than they were then. Did they buy back and sell some of the "sold out" resorts, just but it's always been a minority of sales. Back then you had to specifically ask, and often times, really push the guides to even find out about buying at a sold out resort. We'll never know the actual % I suspect but the idea that SSR was originally sold to those wanting to stay there routinely and now it's a points cow is simply incorrect. Likely the only resorts that have a higher % of their points trying to book at 7 months at WDW are VB, Aulani and HHI.

Also until a few years ago OKW was probably just as good if not a better option for 7 month switching than SSR; it’s only recently that the dues have meaningfully separated from SSR. So probably a lot of SAP all over. Over half of all WDW points are in the 3 resorts people buy for 7 month switching (AKV OKW SSR) and given that AKV and SSR were on the market for years and OKW has turned over substantially, I imagine all 3 have a healthy amount of 7 month switching owners already.

SSR is also the best it’s ever been va the other resorts with 2 feature pools, 3 splash pads, an expanded Paddock Grille, Disney Springs (vs the mess it was since PI closed), and now 2 real beds in all room formats and an upgrade to sleeping 5 in a 1 and 2 bedroom. We’re buying SSR to do a mix of SSR stays and sleep around because we genuinely like the resort.

 

[CastAStone]

Hi all,

I've been researching DVC for a few months now, and after a lot of consideration and weighing what's important to our family, we've decided to purchase a resale contract. Now that we've got through that decision, the next thing we face is where to buy?

Now I know the home resort mantra is "Buy where you would want to stay", and I completely get it. I love Wilderness Lodge, but the CC rooms are on the smaller side, and Boulder Ridge expiration date is a deal breaker. However, when you factor in upfront costs and dues over the life of the contract, SSR and OKW are very attractive. Specifically SSR.

We generally travel July-Aug which aren't peak times, and have some flexibility around booking. Sometimes we book out as far as 11 months, other times we don't. Just depends in life stuff. Therefore, I'm wondering if it makes more sense to buy more points at SSR to enable me stay in a 1BR at most other resorts on property? This doesn't mean I don't like SSR. I love the new rooms, pools, and access to Disney Springs. The food and size not so much, but it might be worth the trade off.

I checked out the room predictability chart for all the resorts here on the forums, and while it's not perfect and can't predict the future it does provide perspective on what's available at the 7 month mark. I noticed most resorts (with some exceptions) you can get a 1BR at 7 months without much angst. I understand the next 12-18 months might be challenging due to the the COVID impacts on DVC and the 50th approaching, but in general it seemed feasible to book.

Just wanted to get some feedback from others here on the forum.

Have you done something similar? What has been your experience? What do you recommend/suggest?

Appreciate your time.

Thank you,

Claudio

Claudio,
I’d suggest you buy at Copper Creek if that’s what you love. The rooms are only small if you compare them to the other resorts, and if you’re looking at one-bedrooms, you’ll still have plenty of space. Switching at 7 months for 1 bedrooms has historically not been too hard but most DVC owners have far more points right now than they usually do because of the closures and now the hesitation of most people to travel. The next several years are going to be unusual for booking where you don’t own.

In addition, Aulani is still closed with no reopening date. Aulani is the second largest DVC resort. As long as it’s closed, the best option for most owners is to use those points at Walt Disney World. When it reopens booking for desirable dates will be very difficult, which will again push owners to WDW (so will the 6-12 hours on a plane). 7 month booking is going to be a slugfest once demand recovers, which, looking at the parks this week, is beginning to happen. I imagine it will take years to resolve

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I did not know AUL is still closed...ouch and the 7 month window might be really tight the next year year. But not much after that. But...on the flip side, AUL is not sold out yet so dvc could offer to extend those points for use solely at AUL.

 

[Dean]

Also until a few years ago OKW was probably just as good if not a better option for 7 month switching than SSR; it’s only recently that the dues have meaningfully separated from SSR. So probably a lot of SAP all over. Over half of all WDW points are in the 3 resorts people buy for 7 month switching (AKV OKW SSR) and given that AKV and SSR were on the market for years and OKW has turned over substantially, I imagine all 3 have a healthy amount of 7 month switching owners already.

Some did recommend it at times and it was more reasonable earlier than it is now. While the dues were not that different early on there was still the RTU difference of 12 years and it was predictable that the dues would escalate at OKW more than most because of the building design. And once the extension as announced and clearly going to flop, it became even less reasonable IMO. Now there was some interest in the extended contracts once those started to become available so there was an uptick there.

I do suspect that the 3 you mentioned have a higher amount of switching than some of the rest comparatively speaking and I suspect it's higher at AKV than OKW for several reasons. OKW still has a core of early buyers who are emotionally tied to it, it is the only resort with 2 regular beds in a studio and until the view change at SSR, it had lower points than anything except AKV value. Every single resort has those that buy there and rarely stay there including VGF. I think the uniqueness of SSR in the arena though is related to it's timing and it's size (number of total points). It basically overwhelmed the system. I'm not complaining, that's the way the system is set up. IMO they had opportunities to reduce that affect going in but they didn't.

 

[cmrdgrs]

I did not know AUL is still closed...ouch and the 7 month window might be really tight the next year year. But not much after that. But...on the flip side, AUL is not sold out yet so dvc could offer to extend those points for use solely at AUL.

VGC is still closed too. As a VGC owner, not too happy that my home resort hasn't opened. Even if the parks didn't open, I would be happy to just stay at the resort.

 

[sethschroeder]

VGC is still closed too. As a VGC owner, not too happy that my home resort hasn't opened. Even if the parks didn't open, I would be happy to just stay at the resort.

Wonder as well if this makes a 7 month booking even harder once things go more back to normal? RIght now I think there is availability with people just punting vacations over the next year.

 

[cmrdgrs]

Wonder as well if this makes a 7 month booking even harder once things go more back to normal? RIght now I think there is availability with people just punting vacations over the next year.

Things at the 7 month mark are selling out as it normally does. With only 71 total villas at VGC, can it get any harder to book?

 

[sethschroeder]

Things at the 7 month mark are selling out as it normally does. With only 71 total villas at VGC, can it get any harder to book?

Do people get a room with nonVGC points? Then it can get harder.