DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[zavandor]

Is this the best way to compain with the Florida officials?
http://www.myfloridalicense.com/dbpr/lsc/timeshare/documents/TimeshareComplaintForm-English.pdf

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

That is really well put and sums up how I feel. I feel this move goes beyond the original intent of the point charts. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.

As for number of points per year, that is not legal. It is not legal for them to change the number of points per year. They can reconfigure points but not increase them. And I understand the calendar variation argument. But Disney cannot artificially create calendars to create new points. That is the same thing as purposefully changing the number of points per year. I love dvc, but I do not think the management over there is very strong right now. This is definitely bad management. Bad for members and bad for the Disney product. Someone or some people should be fired over these repeated attempts to inflate point charts.

 

[Minniemoo15]

I want to thank all of you who have taken the time to explain this very complex problem on this thread. I want to send an email and make inquiries, but it is so confusing and complicated that it makes me feel kind of silly to ask questions about things I don’t completely understand. But this continued thread really does help. Where should I send an email to express my concerns?

I contacted Terri Schultz directly. I googled her email address to find it. I also submitted member feedback on the DVC website but did not hear back from there.

I too do not understand all the inner workings of base use years etc. But I let them know that I was concerned that my resort’s total points have risen substantially in 2022 (beyond the total declared points) and thereby reduced the staying power of my points. I told them this went against what I was told could happen by my Guide during my DVC tour. @i<3riviera has some great talking points in an above post that are more specific.

 

[Lorana]

That is really well put and sums up how I feel. I feel this move goes beyond the original intent of the point charts. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.

Exactly. It may be "legal" (which seems dubious, given that points literally represent my % ownership, and if you increase total points at a resort for the year without increasing the number of points I own, you have decreased my % ownership). I greatly appreciate all the information on this thread, and have written to DVC with my concerns. I have not yet heard back, however.

Thank you!

 

[bobbiwoz]

We wrote as well.

Is interest in this fading?? I hope not!

 

[SL6827]

If DVC members don't speak up now, the possibilities will be endless in the future. They will push the envelope as far as they can.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[JOLT]

Yes, and I am. But, no need or sense to try to go into why. Between what info I have, my own interpretation of things, the great info from @drusba, and a few friends who are attorneys, things are as they should be in my eyes.

so what was their definition of high demand times?

 

[Sandisw]

so what was their definition of high demand times?

Honestly, after the couple of posts and clearly being in the minority, I have decided not to share too many specifics..only because those who feel DVCM is up to no good..or I should say making decisions they should not..may not agree..which is perfectly okay.

But, just to say that their explanation of it all makes sense in regards to not only the POS but their obligation to owners.

As I stated, this meshed well in response to the 2022 charts, their ability to follow POS and DVC membership agreement. However, I feel better prepared to watch what happens in 2023 charts to ensure things continue to be as they should.

ETA: I will say that High demand times have nothing to do with park attendance patterns.

 

[Lorana]

Honestly, after the couple of posts and clearly being in the minority, I have decided not to share too many specifics..only because those who feel DVCM is up to no good..or I should say making decisions they should not..may not agree..which is perfectly okay.

But, just to say that their explanation of it all makes sense in regards to not only the POS but their obligation to owners.

As I stated, this meshed well in response to the 2022 charts, their ability to follow POS and DVC membership agreement. However, I feel better prepared to watch what happens in 2023 charts to ensure things continue to be as they should.

ETA: I will say that High demand times have nothing to do with park attendance patterns.

I would love to hear the specifics, because it would be nice to know what the answers are in order to understand if I agree or don't agree with the decisions made. I can't make an informed decision without knowing! Right now part of the challenge is that Disney is not being very transparent. I also think it would be useful to this discussion to understand the reasoning behind the decisions and how it conforms to the POS and their obligation to act in owner's best interests.

 

[Sandisw]

I would love to hear the specifics, because it would be nice to know what the answers are in order to understand if I agree or don't agree with the decisions made. I can't make an informed decision without knowing! Right now part of the challenge is that Disney is not being very transparent. I also think it would be useful to this discussion to understand the reasoning behind the decisions and how it conforms to the POS and their obligation to act in owner's best interests.

I had shared and changed my mind and removed it. Honestly, everyone has to decide to call and get their own answers.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Minniemoo15]

got a tip to run the charts out into the future to see what happens; thanks for that!

here are the 2022 point charts applied through the end of each property's life; I labeled the peaks to show they aren't all just leap years

View attachment 549881

the green line is the median from 2008-2020 (which also is a good indicator for pre-2008); the red line is the median from 2022+; the shaded areas are the ranges of values; consider these like the fat built into the point charts

• 0.018% delta to declared points for 2008-2020; this would be even flatter if you ignored the transition year of 2010
• 0.25% delta to declared points for 2022+ (more than an order of magnitude higher)
• 2035 (year chosen as base year) and 2046 (where resort still exists) are the only years with 0.0% delta, 2062 comes close as well; but yeah, that's something to celebrate, 2-3 times in 50 years declared points = reservations points; it used to be most years
• 2020 and before the worst error was 0.19% (2010) which is better than the median error going forward (0.26%); talk above moving the goal posts
• in previous point charts there was mild variation from different days of the week for 1 Jan and US thanksgiving hopping around; now there are extreme swings as Easter Sun fluctuates back and forth up to a month; it's less of a line and more of a saw tooth
• 2038 is particularly bad since Easter Sun is 25 Apr 2038 (latest possible) while base year assumes it's a month earlier on 25 Mar; so a month's worth of points magic themselves from season e to season f
• PVB has the worst overall delta with the worst delta being 1.03% points in 2038 above declared points

DVCM is systematically divorcing the declared points from points required to book accommodations; to their credit, they learned a valuable lesson from the initial 2020 point charts (with the increased lock-off premium); make the change way more confusing and keep the increments small so folks can't follow it or don't care

so why build new resorts when you can just add points to the system by monkeying with the point charts? in 2022 we get ~250k more points at Walt Disney World and no more villas; ~250k points is like expanding VGF by 10%, BRV by 13%, or my beloved RVA by 4%

edit: fixed dates on graph

Wow ... I just ... dont even know what to say right now. That is an eye opening analysis that is really concerning to me.

ETA: I think we can assume this isn’t a way to simply absorb extra points for the next few years, since the change was made in pre-COVID and is just coincidentally hitting its first “peak” now? I don’t agree with raising the point chart to absorb points regardless but at least it would have made some sense to me.

So what is DVCs benefit here ... they get to sell the extra points for cash rooms?

 

[zavandor]

So what is DVCs benefit here ... they get to sell the extra points for cash rooms?

Yes. All those extra points generate extra breakage inventory, ie rooms that cannot be booked by members. Normally breakage inventory is made of rooms not booked 60 days or less before stay, but the lockoff premium, 2/29 on a leap year and those point charts shenanigans contribute to that.
DVC rents those rooms and uses the revenue to offset the dues, but only up to a 2.5% of the resort budget. Everything extra goes into the Mouse's pockets. All resorts already hit that limit, so any extra revenue generated by those points will go to Disney.
That's why for many of us what DVC says (this is in the interests of the members) doesn't pass the smell test. It's 100% profit for them.
The fact they said the same in 2020 doesn't inspire a great confidence that this time is instead completely altruistic.

 

[fgaini]

Yes. All those extra points generate extra breakage inventory, ie rooms that cannot be booked by members. Normally breakage inventory is made of rooms not booked 60 days or less before stay, but the lockoff premium, 2/29 on a leap year and those point charts shenanigans contribute to that.
DVC rents those rooms and uses the revenue to offset the dues, but only up to a 2.5% of the resort budget. Everything extra goes into the Mouse's pockets. All resorts already hit that limit, so any extra revenue generated by those points will go to Disney.
That's why for many of us what DVC says (this is in the interests of the members) doesn't pass the smell test. It's 100% profit for them.
The fact they said the same in 2020 doesn't inspire a great confidence that this time is instead completely altruistic.

How can we check the 2,5% you are mentioning? It is a public information?
Tend to agree on your analysis. Would like to have some "proof" to use in the future

 

[zavandor]

How can we check the 2,5% you are mentioning? It is a public information?
Tend to agree on your analysis. Would like to have some "proof" to use in the future

The yearly budget shows the breakage income and that it reached the limit.

 

[drusba]

How can we check the 2,5% you are mentioning? It is a public information?
Tend to agree on your analysis. Would like to have some "proof" to use in the future

The 2.5% is annually in the budget as a credit that lowers total dues. Under the POS, as to annual breakage income, it goes first to provide that annual dues set-off up to 2.5% of the total budget (exluding property taxes and some other items). It then goes to cover the annual costs of BVTC plus 5% of those costs (a built-in profit). BVTC is the DVC entity responsible for trade-outs including member exchanges for a different DVC resort at 7-months out. Any amounts left over after paying BVTC goes to DVCM, the managing agent for the resorts to do with as it pleases (e.g., keep it as profit for Disney).

The only information we are given annually is the amount in the budget to offset dues. For every year for every resort, that amount has always equaled the 2.5% maximum that can be used to offset dues. Years ago I was informed by a DVC officer that annually the total breakage income typically exceeds the 2.5% credit and the amount that goes to BVTC.

 

[Sandisw]

got a tip to run the charts out into the future to see what happens; thanks for that!

here are the 2022 point charts applied through the end of each property's life; I labeled the peaks to show they aren't all just leap years

View attachment 549881

the green line is the median from 2008-2020 (which also is a good indicator for pre-2008); the red line is the median from 2022+; the shaded areas are the ranges of values; consider these like the fat built into the point charts

• 0.018% delta to declared points for 2008-2020; this would be even flatter if you ignored the transition year of 2010
• 0.25% delta to declared points for 2022+ (more than an order of magnitude higher)
• 2035 (year chosen as base year) and 2046 (where resort still exists) are the only years with 0.0% delta, 2062 comes close as well; but yeah, that's something to celebrate, 2-3 times in 50 years declared points = reservations points; it used to be most years
• 2020 and before the worst error was 0.19% (2010) which is better than the median error going forward (0.26%); talk above moving the goal posts
• in previous point charts there was mild variation from different days of the week for 1 Jan and US thanksgiving hopping around; now there are extreme swings as Easter Sun fluctuates back and forth up to a month; it's less of a line and more of a saw tooth
• 2038 is particularly bad since Easter Sun is 25 Apr 2038 (latest possible) while base year assumes it's a month earlier on 25 Mar; so a month's worth of points magic themselves from season e to season f
• PVB has the worst overall delta with the worst delta being 1.03% points in 2038 above declared points

DVCM is systematically divorcing the declared points from points required to book accommodations; to their credit, they learned a valuable lesson from the initial 2020 point charts (with the increased lock-off premium); make the change way more confusing and keep the increments small so folks can't follow it or don't care

so why build new resorts when you can just add points to the system by monkeying with the point charts? in 2022 we get ~250k more points at Walt Disney World and no more villas; ~250k points is like expanding VGF by 10%, BRV by 13%, or my beloved RVA by 4%

edit: fixed dates on graph

So, have you gotten a call back yet? I certainly would be interested into what they say in response to all your graphs and analysis..I am assuming you have sent them?

 

[Sandisw]

Wow ... I just ... dont even know what to say right now. That is an eye opening analysis that is really concerning to me.

ETA: I think we can assume this isn’t a way to simply absorb extra points for the next few years, since the change was made in pre-COVID and is just coincidentally hitting its first “peak” now? I don’t agree with raising the point chart to absorb points regardless but at least it would have made some sense to me.

So what is DVCs benefit here ... they get to sell the extra points for cash rooms?

I will confirm that they answered this and my speculation that 2020 closure played a role in what was decided was not a factor.

 

[New Mouse]

Seeing that Disney is allowed to take ROFR contracts and sell them as new, would this also provide cover if they wanted to sell new contracts with the created points? I dont know that without a true audit and a deep one that you would ever be able to prove 1 to 1 correlation with that.