DVC must stop rentals.....

[Marionnette]

Condescension and anger are remarkable similar emotions when typed on ye olde typing box

I think you're reading a lot of emotion into posts that is not there.

 

[Marionnette]

Causing is probably too strong a term, but it can be exacerbating it.

If I am booking for myself, I am limited to times when I, personally, might want to take a vacation. If I am booking a spec rental, I am instead looking for times when lots of other people might want to take a vacation. And, as I wrote above, I am incentivized to make this booking as soon as I possibly can---after all, I know when the popular dates are much more than a mere 11 months in advance. That might also be sooner than I would know when e.g. my vacation is, or when the kids' soccer schedules are firmed up, or whatever.

So, it is entirely possible that the existence of a well-known spec rental market is skewing the existing "organic" booking patterns for popular periods earlier in time.

That doesn't change the fact that it is the OP's responsibility to book their own vacation as early as they might have. And given that they travel regularly during Jersey Week, this booking would have been foreseeable for them. That will be a live-and-learn experience for the OP I suspect. But, that too is exacerbating the problem. If a shift to earlier bookings then moves the "organic" booking patterns, then it compounds itself.

So, I guess where I sit both sides of this discussion are correct: it is the OP's responsibility to book as early as they can, AND the existence of the spec rental market might be making that more important than it otherwise would be.

What percentage of total bookings would you estimate is spec rentals? Is their impact really great enough to warrant action by DVC or just another bucket of water in a seas of reservation issues?

 

[wnielsen1]

No, I don't want owners eating points. I also don't want rooms booked up 7 months out to hold for renting. I don't know what a solution could be. It is just incredibly frustrating as an owner.

I get the frustration. I think many of us like to have the option to rent should life get in the way of using the points for our own use. Now, if we want DVC to crack down on the commercial/serial renters, that is a different discussion. Either way, there doesn't seem to be an easy solution. I think a blanket ban on renting is a bridge too far for most owners, myself included.

 

[Sandisw]

You DVC renters are an angry group. Didn't mean to buzz the hornets nest.

I just want clarify that I don’t rent to strangers. I have only done it a few times. But I have done it for friends when I am not traveling.

Simply believe that what an owner does with their points is up to them.

 

[qwerty2k]

I don’t yet own dvc so don’t know anywhere near as much as all of you do but…if Disney thought renting was causing an issue wouldn’t it be in their interest to clamp down on it and hope for wasted points which would then mean more breakage for them?

 

[DduzDis]

Condescension and anger are remarkable similar emotions when typed on ye olde typing box

As is entitlement...

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure how valuable it is to impute the emotions of other folks---for any of us.

What percentage of total bookings would you estimate is spec rentals?

More than ever before? That's tongue in cheek, but not entirely. There are several easy-to-find websites that are happy to list your speculative rental for you---as far as I can recall, that's relatively new. Similarly, DIS went from no spec rentals at all, to only within the holding window, to you can buy your way on. The presence of these mechanisms lowers the activation energy of speculatively renting. And, speculatively renting studios on a per-reservation basis is much more lucrative than renting DVC reservations on a per-point basis, because you can command some eye-watering per-point values---as long as you are renting studios, that is.

Like I said above, the impact is almost certainly marginal---and likely more of a problem in terms of perception rather than reality. But, that perception can eventually matter and impact the way the program works. Folks Who Know (tm) believe that Wyndham started down this path not so much because renters were an actual problem, but rather that unhappy owners chose them as a scapegoat for other problems. Doing Something About Renting became a sales/PR tool, at least in part.

 

[Brian Noble]

And just as an aside, I don't know that there is much of any value trying to guess others' emotional dispositions, let alone tell them what our guesses are.

 

[Minniesgal]

I usually find it’s the boomers that are the rudest and most entitled age group.
I guess it varies on your experiences and outlook.

I am 6 months out from my trip, and I can't get a full week in a studio anywhere. Disney has to stop the rental market, at least until the backlog of points clears. Members using their own points should have some availability at this point.

Rentals are members booking their own points. What they choose to do with the room once it is booked is up to them

If you want to travel best thing to do is book at 11 months. After 7 months it’s first come first served

 

[MakiraMarlena]

not sure how stopping renting would help. WDW is super popular right now and DVC members want to get rid of their accumulated points from the pandemic. they're going to be booked up due to demand for awhile, unless they drastically change point allotments for booking popular times and units

 

[gregskellington]

I'd tend to agree with some other posters that stopping rentals will accomplish absolutely nothing. It's these horribly imbalanced point charts causing so many problems.

 

[Redheadprincess]

I am 6 months out from my trip, and I can't get a full week in a studio anywhere. Disney has to stop the rental market, at least until the backlog of points clears. Members using their own points should have some availability at this point.

You do realize that all those points are owner's points. Whether they use them or someone else uses them, they are all still valid to use.

 

[Marionnette]

I don’t yet own dvc so don’t know anywhere near as much as all of you do but…if Disney thought renting was causing an issue wouldn’t it be in their interest to clamp down on it and hope for wasted points which would then mean more breakage for them?

Quite often when we read someone complaining that nothing is available during the week of XYZ, it isn't true. What they really mean is that nothing is available at their preferred resort & room type for every night of their anticipated trip. It's not that Jersey Week is completely booked up at 6 months out. It's a case of scattered nights in studios, limited nights in all categories at highly desirable resorts and availability in point-heavy 1BR villas for most but not all nights.

So while the OP may not be able to find exactly what they are looking for at 6 months out, there are all types of rooms still available for anyone who is willing to book a split stay at the resorts that are usually booked up last (AKV, OKW, SSR) and create wait lists for their preferred resorts. People cancel all of the time. I just canceled 5 September nights in a Value Studio because my sister informed me that she and her daughter can't go.

 

[xdan0920]

As is entitlement...

 

[bumbershoot]

I'm trying to figure out where you're getting what-you-see-as data from.

I am 6 months out from my trip, and I can't get a full week in a studio anywhere. Disney has to stop the rental market, at least until the backlog of points clears. Members using their own points should have some availability at this point.

Why do you think it's rentals? As much as YOU want to get out of town for Jersey Week, tons of other people do as well.

I am looking at the 2nd week of Nov and there is nothing.

Weird, since I see the 7th, 8th, and 9th all at one resort when I checked. Add in the 6th at a different resort, waitlist the rest, and you can have a nice time. Personally, I adore split stays so it wouldn't bother me, but I bet you can piecemeal it together.

(I'll note that I think this period includes Jersey Week.)

Yep.

Yes! I am from Jersey lmao. Typically I have zero problem at least getting into OKW or Saratoga. I have also stayed at Boardwalk, Wilderness and AKL. With options.

This year, I can't even get into OKW.

So you've been lucky for all these years, but now your luck has run out. A lot of people are finally traveling after not having done so. Virtual school, forced variations of homeschooling, etc make people want to get out and have FUN. Just like you want to do.

Things have changed. I believe it's the explosion of the rental market.

Data?

People are renting their points more and more

Data?

Do split stays like I always do. It is not as bad as some say.

I love them. A bit of planning ahead of time, and I end up feeling like I've had as many vacations as I have splits.

You DVC renters are an angry group. Didn't mean to buzz the hornets nest.

You're talking to owners, not renters. Or do you think everyone here rents out their points? I don't.
And I see no anger while people are trying to explain how DVC works to a "charter member."

Count your lucky stars for the previous decades, and know that now you've joined the hordes of those who aren't so lucky.

Condescension and anger are remarkable similar emotions when typed on ye olde typing box

Me thinks you're reading something into what you're seeing on ye olde reading box.

 

[xdan0920]

You do realize that all those points are owner's points. Whether they use them or someone texts them, they are all still valid to use.

No. I didn’t realize. Thanks!

 

[Brian Noble]

It is listed for $33/pt.

I'm coming back to this one, because it is interesting.

That reservation had to be made with GFV points. Dues on those points are $7 and change---if we get a 3% increase, it will be about 7.22 for the 2023 UY. That leaves a residual value of about $25.78. If I bought points tomorrow from DVC, I'd pay $207 for them. That gives me an ROI of 12.45% pre-tax.

That's almost but not quite worth doing. The comparison I usually make is the SP500, with a long term rate of return of about 10.5% pre-tax. But, the latter is going to end up begin taxed at the long-term capital gains rate of 15-20% (depending on one's income) vs. 28-38%, again depending,.

If we assume I was 15% for capital gains vs. 35% for ordinary income (ballpark) the post-tax RoRs are 8.3% for the DVC rental vs. 8.9% for just parking it in a low-fee fund. The latter is also a lot less work, and doesn't carry the risk that DVC rules out public advertising. Even if it was 20/37 (the max rates) I am looking at 7.8% post tax DVC vs. 8.3% SP500.

So, even with this rather extreme example, I still can't quite talk myself into DVC rentals as a business when the alternative is a zero-effort low-fee passive index index fund.

 

[xdan0920]

I'm trying to figure out where you're getting what-you-see-as data from.



Why do you think it's rentals? As much as YOU want to get out of town for Jersey Week, tons of other people do as well.




Weird, since I see the 7th, 8th, and 9th all at one resort when I checked. Add in the 6th at a different resort, waitlist the rest, and you can have a nice time. Personally, I adore split stays so it wouldn't bother me, but I bet you can piecemeal it together.



Yep.



So you've been lucky for all these years, but now your luck has run out. A lot of people are finally traveling after not having done so. Virtual school, forced variations of homeschooling, etc make people want to get out and have FUN. Just like you want to do.



Data?



Data?



I love them. A bit of planning ahead of time, and I end up feeling like I've had as many vacations as I have splits.



You're talking to owners, not renters. Or do you think everyone here rents out their points? I don't.
And I see no anger while people are trying to explain how DVC works to a "charter member."

Count your lucky stars for the previous decades, and know that now you've joined the hordes of those who aren't so lucky.



Me thinks you're reading something into what you're seeing on ye olde reading box.

Yeah, this post certainly proves that I am inventing the condescending attitude.

 

[Brian Noble]

Data?

I don't think data is necessary for a reasonable person to conclude that speculative rentals are more common than they used to be.

(For the record, my day job includes vetting the claims of others in my field through the rather notorious peer review. If someone makes a claim that they can't back up with concrete data, I am very suspicious, and am sometimes Reviewer 2. This is a case where I don't think I need it to be reasonably sure.)

You probably do to know what effect that has, but not to know that it is not zero. Is it in the noise? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

[gregskellington]

Instead of pointing fingers about who was entitled or who was condescending we could probably just all learn to agree that stopping rentals won't solve anything and there's a lot of factors at play in this.