DVC Moderate Resort Being Reported by WDWNT

[Nancyg56]

The problem is that while timeshare sales freefell in the late 2000s/early 2010s, they came soaring back -- 2015 was a banner year and 2016 is expected to surpass it. The market's so hot I've been getting some ridiculous offers that I haven't seen since the mid-2000s. If Disney wants to take advantage of the market, it needs to increase its inventory. Building onto the CBR is a low-cost, low-risk solution that would also enable Disney to entice a price point who may not otherwise consider the DVC.

Long-term I expect Disney will transform Fort Wilderness into its third all-DVC resort (as has been rumored for nearly 6 years), but I doubt they'll take on a project of that scope until they're confident in the market.

A few years ago I participated in a "Will CBR become a DVC resort?" and at that time I was all for a lower rate DVC unit that would be offered. We had talked about not offering all the services and amenities the Deluxe resort villas offer, which would have worked out well for my family. A few years later, and many, many changes to WDW, and there is no way I would invest.

I think that DVC is not a simple time share unit. It is a major financial commitment to visit one area, with WDW the primary destination, for many years to come. This discussion has centered around the amenities and location of CBR, but I think that from a consumer's POV, the investment question centers around what WDW offers, and the extraneous costs involved in a Disney vacation. A few years ago I never second guessed a WDW vacation, I just planned one. Today, with all of the changes that have occurred and continue to occur, my WDW vacation cost is skyrocketing. Food costs are climbing faster than the speed of light. I see fees added to experiences my family always enjoyed as part of my entrance charge. If I want to see a parade or the fireworks from areas we used to use, I now need to pay. Ticket costs are rising, and one wonders what else will change that impacts my vacation dollar. When you add that to the high cost of a DVC investment, it is not a no brainer decision. I remember thinking that id the Poly ever was a DVC resort I would buy in. Not now.

If Disney wants to continue drawing a number of guest committed to a Disney vacation, and using their "Prepayment" as a means of financing additional construction, Disney needs to ensure that people like me...very loyal Disney guests...continue to find a value in a Disney vacation. Right now there is a sense of diminishing returns on a vacation package, and with the pace of increased fees and charges, I am not sure I want to commit. I actually am positive I do not want to invest in a long term relationship with WDW, and I bet there are many more just like me.

We can discuss the merits or the deficits of a moderate location for a new DVC resort, and we can discuss the amenities that investors would want or like me, would prefer not to have, but unless Disney can convince investors that they will gain some sort of value for the investment, that Disney will stop making changes that can drive a budget into oblivion, and can reassure investors that cuts in services and staff, as well as slow updates to parks will soon be over, I bet the sales on units they have will stagnate, so much so that adding new ones will be wasted money.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Maybe not you and I, but I think alot of people would like a slightly better version, especially if it comes with a similar point count... I haven't been "stuck" with SSR for a good while due to my predictable travel dates, but I would welcome a better or slightly better option if it arose-- right now I put VWL at a slightly better option to OKW and SSR.....What wouldn't CBV have compared to these locations anyway? All they need is a new building and a restaurant/ lounge.....

I see your point...but the problem is the infrastucture of Caribbean is bad.

If they are gonna try to put in a block with a bat lake tower type pool, a snack bar, and a kids club...that isn't gonna cut it.

It would require major new committment to services...which frankly Disney is not into.

 

[danikoski]

I'm still thinking Star Wars or DHS themed resort...it may be timeshare but might be more like Art of Animation family suites instead...they are going to capitalize on the proximity of it being so close to DHS. If they don't, they'd be stupid, and where there is easy money involved, Disney usually isn't stupid. You could easily put scenes of desert or beach related to Star Wars on a building that could tie in with CBR. It may not be Star Wars themed, but it will tie in with DHS and I'm guessing, if it is rumored to be moderate, it will be along the lines of AofA suites. If it had a food court and pool like AofA, and the price point or point to buy in were lower than most DVC, I'd be interested (my family is filled with Star Wars nuts and a family suite would be just about the right size). Right now, for cash ressies, often times with discounts the family suites at AofA run within range of a 1 bedroom villa at OKW and sometimes SS. So in a way, it makes sense.

Of course Disney can always surprise and there is some land between DHS and CBR, so maybe they have other things planned besides moving parking lots and entrances, plus there will be the old parking lots that could be used for a more DHS direct themed resort.

 

[skier_pete]

DVC has not been selling well by surface indications. I can only assume well below thier projections. How did they not burn trough the Polynesian? That's almost unconscionable.

As for DVC not selling well, that's no longer true. The Polynesian has had several consecutive months of strong sales; last month was its second-best since the property opened up for sale. Offering a lower-priced CBR option to complement the Polly seems like a smart move on Disney's end.

Whether Poly sales are softer than planned is debatable - but the biggest evidence that it has not sold as expected is the planned construction at the new WLV. Ideally, I would expect Disney would want the Poly to be near fully sold by the time they came on-line with the WLV 2.0 - which I think right now is scheduled for sometime in the 2nd half of 2017.

The Poly is (as of May 2016) 37% sold after approximately 13 months of being on-sale (went on sale in February 2015, but actual registrations of deeds didn't really start until March). They have sold about 150,000 each month of the last four (Feb-May). Continuing at that pace - the Poly would sell out in approximately 16 months. If we be a little more conservative and look at the fact 37% sold in 13 months, we could say it could take as much as 24 more months to sell out. Looking at that range - we are looking at the Poly selling out between September 2017 and May 2018.

Tryng to be objective about it (and I don't have a horse in the race) I think that DVC is pretty happy with that pace. The whole property, which is pretty large, should be sold in between 2 and 3 years. A new property will be coming on-line just as the old property is filling up. Having a few months of two properties I don't think would bother them at all.

I think Aulani remains a big-time disappointment, but the Poly, maybe slightly low, but I don't think it is anything that they are thinking "disaster".

Again, I've said this for a while though - when they turn around and run out of the true deluxe locations and start selling at Wilderness lodge, that $180 per point price point may really kill them.

 

[LAS2AMS]

A few years ago I participated in a "Will CBR become a DVC resort?" and at that time I was all for a lower rate DVC unit that would be offered. We had talked about not offering all the services and amenities the Deluxe resort villas offer, which would have worked out well for my family. A few years later, and many, many changes to WDW, and there is no way I would invest...

Disney has been a lousy vacation value for years. It restricted capacity growth even while demand swelled so that it could raise ticket, entertainment, lodging & food prices. That hasn't stopped people from coming.

The price per point for DVC continues to well surpass that of inflation and a lower-cost option would be welcome by many families who otherwise couldn't afford to join DVC. IMO, there will always be an infinite supply of families wrapped up in the moment of "magic" at Disney and eager to buy. An investment at the CBR would be low-cost and low-risk. It could also be used as a platform to lure & upsell guests who typically stay at the value & moderate resorts into the traditional DVC program, convincing them it suddenly makes deluxe properties affordable (I'm not saying this is true... just that the sales rep will use Disney "magic" to make them think so.)

I see your point...but the problem is the infrastucture of Caribbean is bad.

CBR is poorly laid out -- it was built on a tight budget, after all -- but it's still a guest favorite and a great (if imperfect) resort. Most people agree that Port Orleans, Dixie Landings and Coronado Springs are better resorts (Disney learned from its mistakes) but CBR generally commands the higher room rates (and is frequently excluded from promotional pricing while the others are not).

 

[Nancyg56]

Disney has been a lousy vacation value for years. It restricted capacity growth even while demand swelled so that it could raise ticket, entertainment, lodging & food prices. That hasn't stopped people from coming.

The price per point for DVC continues to well surpass that of inflation and a lower-cost option would be welcome by many families who otherwise couldn't afford to join DVC. IMO, there will always be an infinite supply of families wrapped up in the moment of "magic" at Disney and eager to buy. An investment at the CBR would be low-cost and low-risk. It could also be used as a platform to lure & upsell guests who typically stay at the value & moderate resorts into the traditional DVC program, convincing them it suddenly makes deluxe properties affordable (I'm not saying this is true... just that the sales rep will use Disney "magic" to make them think so.)

I think that for a lot of us, Disney was not a lousy value, so the prospect of a moderate DVC unit that offered the amenities we would use would have been welcomed. I have no interest in laundry areas or kitchens, so I never would have used that benefit, and would not have wanted to pay for it. I like Deluxe resorts and stay on occasion, but also enjoy the mods, so to have the option of a moderate DVC unit interested me. The changes of the past year, and some of the rumors for costs upcoming have me edgy about such a big financial commitment to this vacation destination. I think it remains to be seen if I am in the minority or if there is a large enough contingent of buyers to make more DVC a viable option for Disney. So far, they seem to want more units available for sale, so I think they see a return, but honestly, if Disney does not manage their rates better, they may fall flat.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Whether Poly sales are softer than planned is debatable - but the biggest evidence that it has not sold as expected is the planned construction at the new WLV. Ideally, I would expect Disney would want the Poly to be near fully sold by the time they came on-line with the WLV 2.0 - which I think right now is scheduled for sometime in the 2nd half of 2017....

I don't disagree that initial sales at the Polynesian were softer than expected -- the heavy incentives offered earlier this year point toward that. But the current sales pace almost undoubtedly surpasses initial forecasts and unless it cools (there's little reason to think it will) the soft sales months will be a distant memory.

Aulani is probably a disappointment, but Disney shouldn't be surprised. DVC appeals to people who primarily want to vacation at WDW. Hawaii was long requested as an alternative option (given the poor choices generally yielded via RCI) but it's just that -- an alternative option. If I plan to spend most of my time at WDW, I'm better off buying into the Polynesian than Aulani. If I plan to spend most of my time in Hawaii, I'm far better off buying into one of the Marriott, Hilton, etc. properties there and trading into DVC -- unless I really, really like Aulani and plan to stay there every year. The cost of getting to Hawaii is a big deterrent for most families.

 

[Disneychick75]

But how "magical" is Bonnet Creek compared to CBR?

LoL will need to start a thread with that title and include a poll.

The DIS would never be the same.....

A stay at Bonnet Creek helped me to decide to sell our DVC points. The units there are much nicer than any DVC rooms I've stayed in at WDW.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Whether Poly sales are softer than planned is debatable - but the biggest evidence that it has not sold as expected is the planned construction at the new WLV. Ideally, I would expect Disney would want the Poly to be near fully sold by the time they came on-line with the WLV 2.0 - which I think right now is scheduled for sometime in the 2nd half of 2017.

The Poly is (as of May 2016) 37% sold after approximately 13 months of being on-sale (went on sale in February 2015, but actual registrations of deeds didn't really start until March). They have sold about 150,000 each month of the last four (Feb-May). Continuing at that pace - the Poly would sell out in approximately 16 months. If we be a little more conservative and look at the fact 37% sold in 13 months, we could say it could take as much as 24 more months to sell out. Looking at that range - we are looking at the Poly selling out between September 2017 and May 2018.

Tryng to be objective about it (and I don't have a horse in the race) I think that DVC is pretty happy with that pace. The whole property, which is pretty large, should be sold in between 2 and 3 years. A new property will be coming on-line just as the old property is filling up. Having a few months of two properties I don't think would bother them at all.

I think Aulani remains a big-time disappointment, but the Poly, maybe slightly low, but I don't think it is anything that they are thinking "disaster".

Again, I've said this for a while though - when they turn around and run out of the true deluxe locations and start selling at Wilderness lodge, that $180 per point price point may really kill them.

Whether Poly sales are softer than planned is debatable - but the biggest evidence that it has not sold as expected is the planned construction at the new WLV. Ideally, I would expect Disney would want the Poly to be near fully sold by the time they came on-line with the WLV 2.0 - which I think right now is scheduled for sometime in the 2nd half of 2017.

The Poly is (as of May 2016) 37% sold after approximately 13 months of being on-sale (went on sale in February 2015, but actual registrations of deeds didn't really start until March). They have sold about 150,000 each month of the last four (Feb-May). Continuing at that pace - the Poly would sell out in approximately 16 months. If we be a little more conservative and look at the fact 37% sold in 13 months, we could say it could take as much as 24 more months to sell out. Looking at that range - we are looking at the Poly selling out between September 2017 and May 2018.

Tryng to be objective about it (and I don't have a horse in the race) I think that DVC is pretty happy with that pace. The whole property, which is pretty large, should be sold in between 2 and 3 years. A new property will be coming on-line just as the old property is filling up. Having a few months of two properties I don't think would bother them at all.

I think Aulani remains a big-time disappointment, but the Poly, maybe slightly low, but I don't think it is anything that they are thinking "disaster".

Again, I've said this for a while though - when they turn around and run out of the true deluxe locations and start selling at Wilderness lodge, that $180 per point price point may really kill them.

I wouldnt say "disaster" at the poly...

I would 100% say "disappointment"

150,000 a month is good...but down from their peak sales rate.

And it's because it's the poly that I say "disappointment"

Few things garner so much loyalty anywhere on Disney grounds...this is a $29 a night room in 1971 that people pay $550 for now largely unchanged...for "nostalgia" more than anything.

The reality is that it would sell quickly if the price is right. Therefore if you can eliminate the impossible...the price might not be right.

They can't find enough studio customers to sell 300?

Or perhaps at an astonishing $168 a point.

If they lowered back down to $125-135 (where it should be)...it would be blitzed in 6 months flat. That's the reality.

So now - as pointed out - $175 for wilderness next to villas that sold for $65 originally?

Or what for the Bon Bini tower? With the Lightning fast 8 stop bus loop and the food court of chaos?

See...there is a weirdness to the whole thing now.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Aulani is a disappointment for reasons...first, they didn't put it on Maui...instead on a new construction isolation point in Oahu...

Second...they let the village idiot blow the budget on it. A billion for "fake Hawaii" when some Windows to look out on real Hawaii would have sufficed.

DVC ultimately want Disney parks...it's been proven time and again. It's a stretch to get people to go on a boat...anything else is pushing it.

 

[skier_pete]

Or perhaps at an astonishing $168 a point.

If they lowered back down to $125-135 (where it should be)...it would be blitzed in 6 months flat. That's the reality.

But they'd rather sell it for $168 a point over 2-3 years that $125 a point in 1 year.

I do think WLV at $175 a point may be problematic for them. The Poly depended on a considerable amount of "addons" as you say - the Poly is a STAR in the Disney Universe. WLV is a smaller fish. People won't be clamoring for add-ons there even though WLV does have its fans. It is especially hard to predict considering WLV availability on the resale market. $90 a point versus $175 a point - but hey you get a $100 DVC discount on an AP!

Perhaps I'm wrong and they will reset with a low-end DVC at CBR - but I just don't see them wanting to rollback point costs. WLV will give us a hint at this.

 

[Spokavegas]

Have you BEEN to Aulani? We love it!! Headed back again at Thanksgiving. Oahu made far more sense with the availability of larger tourist options like Pearl Harbour, Waikiki and the North Shore. Maui is gorgeous - but a much more beach, Sunday drive and boutique shopping type of vacay.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

CBR is poorly laid out -- it was built on a tight budget, after all -- but it's still a guest favorite and a great (if imperfect) resort. Most people agree that Port Orleans, Dixie Landings and Coronado Springs are better resorts (Disney learned from its mistakes) but CBR generally commands the higher room rates (and is frequently excluded from promotional pricing while the others are not).

I know it well...you could blindfold me and i could still walk the paths...

But it's an awful layout. It's always had more loyalty than it should - frankly.

I always got the impression that people convince themselves they are getting the tropics AND Disney out of the place...a psychological 2 for 1.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

But they'd rather sell it for $168 a point over 2-3 years that $125 a point in 1 year.

I do think WLV at $175 a point may be problematic for them. The Poly depended on a considerable amount of "addons" as you say - the Poly is a STAR in the Disney Universe. WLV is a smaller fish. People won't be clamoring for add-ons there even though WLV does have its fans. It is especially hard to predict considering WLV availability on the resale market. $90 a point versus $175 a point - but hey you get a $100 DVC discount on an AP!

Perhaps I'm wrong and they will reset with a low-end DVC at CBR - but I just don't see them wanting to rollback point costs. WLV will give us a hint at this.

You said it...

Do you see any scenario where they sell a Caribbean unit at $175 a point?

Cause that is the real sticking point.

It should be 6 pts a night/ $90 a point...that's reasonable.

But my $75 points that can book me beach club for 14 a night?

No...there is not comparison.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Have you BEEN to Aulani? We love it!! Headed back again at Thanksgiving. Oahu made far more sense with the availability of larger tourist options like Pearl Harbour, Waikiki and the North Shore. Maui is gorgeous - but a much more beach, Sunday drive and boutique shopping type of vacay.

To each their own. The reality is I can't get to Oahu conveniently...

And it hasn't sold well...so that's the reality of the matter.

 

[skier_pete]

Aulani is a disappointment for reasons...first, they didn't put it on Maui...instead on a new construction isolation point in Oahu...

Second...they let the village idiot blow the budget on it. A billion for "fake Hawaii" when some Windows to look out on real Hawaii would have sufficed.

DVC ultimately want Disney parks...it's been proven time and again. It's a stretch to get people to go on a boat...anything else is pushing it.

There were a lot of things wrong with Aulani. #1 was the plan to sell to a strong Japanese market that evaporated before construction was done and never returned. Realistically, Aulani is only sellable on the west coast, and without more west coast DVC other than the 46 rooms at VGC it basically is isolated to itself. So either you buy because you go to Hawaii every year (Which there are west-coasters that do this.) or you buy elsewhere.

The problem is DVC is extremely expensive for a timeshare. They can get away with it when it's on Disney Property because everything on Disney property is overpriced. As soon as they go off property, they can't get away with selling at the same price point.

You said it...

Do you see any scenario where they sell a Caribbean unit at $175 a point?

Cause that is the real sticking point.

Not if they construct it as a "moderate" DVC, and I think even a hard sell as a "normal" DVC. Unless they somehow connect it directly to Epcot and/or DHS as some are supposing. I just don't see it. Especially if they really sell it as part of CBR. It's one thing to convince a family to pay $30,000 so that you don't have to pay $700 a night for a hotel room - but to pay $30,000 for a $200 a night hotel seems unlikely to fly.

 

[OKW Lover]

There were a lot of things wrong with Aulani. #1 was the plan to sell to a strong Japanese market that evaporated before construction was done and never returned. Realistically, Aulani is only sellable on the west coast,

I'm not so sure that all the asians (can't confirm if they were Japanese or other nations as I'm not astute enough to judge by sight) that I saw at Aulani last month, or in the two prior visits, indicate a weak market. We saw many, many asians speaking apparently a native language at Aulani.

 

[skier_pete]

Have you BEEN to Aulani? We love it!! Headed back again at Thanksgiving. Oahu made far more sense with the availability of larger tourist options like Pearl Harbour, Waikiki and the North Shore. Maui is gorgeous - but a much more beach, Sunday drive and boutique shopping type of vacay.

There's no doubt Aulani's nice.

To each their own. The reality is I can't get to Oahu conveniently...

Exactly right - a Hawaii vacation starts with a $1300 airline ticket for everyone in my family. That's $3600 versus about $750 to Florida. East Coasters simply aren't going to do this no matter how "lovely" Aulani is. In California, it might be $500 for a flight to Florida, and $600 to Hawaii...that's a lot closer in price, and a lot more likely to be seen as worth the price.

And it hasn't sold well...so that's the reality of the matter.

That's 100% fact. Aulani is looking at taking 8-10 years to sell out - no way that was the plan. History says most DVC resorts sell out in 2-3 years. In addition, Aulani resales are running about $100-$110 versus $168 through Disney - WHILE THE RESORT IS BARELY HALF SOLD. Heck, Beach Club is a more expensive buy on resale, and the contract is almost 20 years shorter.

 

[skier_pete]

I'm not so sure that all the asians (can't confirm if they were Japanese or other nations as I'm not astute enough to judge by sight) that I saw at Aulani last month, or in the two prior visits, indicate a weak market. We saw many, many asians speaking apparently a native language at Aulani.

I am not saying that Asians are buying into Aulani - what I'm saying is that the Japanese economy was a big reason for Disney to build Aulani, and when it shrank so badly during the construction phase and never recovered, the sales figures just weren't there. Certainly Hawaii will remain a popular Japanese destination.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am not saying that Asians are buying into Aulani - what I'm saying is that the Japanese economy was a big reason for Disney to build Aulani, and when it shrank so badly during the construction phase and never recovered, the sales figures just weren't there. Certainly Hawaii will remain a popular Japanese destination.

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