DVC Dues Increase/Decrease History Table

[DVC Mary]

DVC Mary's DH writes:

Could you tell me how the % increases were calculated? We own at BWV at the mailing on Page 1 says the cost per point is $4.2515. Since I don't have last year's mailing I backed into the cost per point for 2003 at got $4.0072. Simply dividing the two I came up with a 6.1% increase.

 

[JimC]

Here is how I calculate average annual compounded rate of increase:

I calculated the increases using compounded annual returns from the year opened to 2004. For example if you begin with 3.7681 for BCV in 2002 and mulitply that times 1.05216 times 1.05216 you get 4.1714, the fee for 2004. Thus the 5.2% average annual compounded rate of increase. If you do this in excel the formula is:

((current year fee/earliest year's fee)^(1/number of years - 1)) - 1

For number of years you can use the count function.

 

[PamOKW]

Originally posted by DVC Mary
DVC Mary's DH writes:

Since I don't have last year's mailing I backed into the cost per point for 2003 at got $4.0072. Simply dividing the two I came up with a 6.1% increase.

The dues for BWV last year were $4.10 (I don't have the multi-decimal point version). Your actual bill can be less than that because they rebate any overpayment of real estate taxes from the previous year. To get a clear picture of budget changes you do have to compare the budget announcements each year. However, if they don't come through with a comparable rebate this year, your actual payment increase will be the 6.1% you describe.

 

[disneyberry]

Originally posted by DVC Mary
DVC Mary's DH writes:

Could you tell me how the % increases were calculated? We own at BWV at the mailing on Page 1 says the cost per point is $4.2515. Since I don't have last year's mailing I backed into the cost per point for 2003 at got $4.0072. Simply dividing the two I came up with a 6.1% increase.

the #s i use are basically the dues figures that were posted in Caskbill's table.
for some years, i also have #s out to 4 decimal places. (supplied by members of the DISboards over the years...)
my guess is that all those dues figures were the "official" announced dues, NOT taking into account any rebates on overpayment of real estate taxes.
although i don't actually know that for sure since i only just became a member at the beginning of 2003.

anyway, taking BWV for example, 2003 dues were $4.1084/pt.
$4.2515 (BWV 2004) is a 3.5% increase over $4.1084.
hope this helps.

 

[disneyberry]

Lisa, thanks for doing the absolute difference table.
i see your point now, it does help us see the complete picture.

did you want to add Avg and Median rows as well? (try Excel for the calculations)

 

[PamOKW]

For those compiling the figures (thanks to you all), the 2004 dues for purchasers of Vero Beach prior to 1/1/96 is $3.6715. This is comprised of $2.6417 Operating, $.4916 Capital Reserves and $.5382 Property Tax.

My guess is that there was something written in their contracts basing the dues on total buildout. A caveat with a cut-off date for the subsidy was added to later contracts (the date has passed). Here's part of the explanation from DVC:

"The Vero Beach Resort is structured as a phased condominium, and currently only 175 Vacation Homes have actually been made part of the Condominium. The Condominium also currently includes most of the necessary facilities and infrastructure and provides for most of the necessary services to support the entire project upon build-out. Therefore, as with any similar phase condominium, Common Expenses are higher in the early phases of development.....DVD has agreed to commit to Owners who purchased prior to 1/1/96 that the net annual assessment for Common Expenses of the Condominium imposed upon such Owners who purchased prior to 1/1/96 shal be based upon the assumption of 266 Vacation Homes (equivalent to a total of 3,081,338 Vacation Points) have actually been added to the Condominium."

 

[DVCDAVE]

I'm sorry, but I don't see any property tax figures in the notices that came in the mail, so we don't have any final figures yet for 2004. All I see is the operating budget with capital expenditures, but no taxes are mentioned at all.

I started a thread on this subject.

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=470100

 

[JimC]

To add to the tables.

BCV $4.1786

VWL $4.2210

 

[gazeborob]

Since some of your are running numbers, have you ever thought about projecting the cost through the year 2042? I am almost scared to see it myself. But if any of you that are good with the spread sheets feels like doing it, I woul love to see it. I think just for the heck of it you could use the average % increase for your figures.

Thanks,
Rob

 

[JimC]

I have done it. Using OKW historical increase of 3.0% per year average compounded increase:

OKW Maintenance fees for 2041 are: $10.8958

 

[DVC Mary]

DVC Mary's DH husband writes:

Thanks Pam OKW. You understood how I calculated. So unless there is some rebate, BWV dues increased by 6.1%.

 

[PamOKW]

Originally posted by DVCDAVE
I'm sorry, but I don't see any property tax figures in the notices that came in the mail, so we don't have any final figures yet for 2004.

FYI -- It's got to be there. It should probably be in a paragraph that reads something like "The estimated Annual Dues for 2004 are $x.xxx per Vacation Point which is comprised of the estimated Annual Operating Budget ($x.xxx per Vacation Point ), the estimated Annual Capital Reserves Budget ($x.xxx per Vacation Point) and the Estimated Ad Valorem Taxes ($x.xxx per Vacation Point ).

The "Ad Valorem Taxes" are the property taxes.

 

[crisi]

A statistical trend analysis puts dues at OKW 38 years from now at $6.54.

Equation for math geeks

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 2.43538 + 7.89E-02*t


BWV will be $5.90

Equation for math geeks:

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 3.71833 + 4.63E-02*t

HH $6.94


Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 2.94194 + 8.52E-02*t

Confidence however is not high in these predictions. Way too many variables, not a big enough sample.

 

[mitros]

A bit off subject, but does anyone think that disney makes any kind of honest attempt to keep dues down? And here's a good one: what percentage of the dues goes to Eisner?

 

[Caskbill]

Originally posted by mitros
A bit off subject, but does anyone think that disney makes any kind of honest attempt to keep dues down? And here's a good one: what percentage of the dues goes to Eisner?

From just a quick internet search, it looks like the company made $25.4 billion in total annual revenue, based on latest figure I found, Sept, 2002.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?annual&s=dis

I guess Sep 2003 figures are not yet ready.

Eisner's share, including salary and bonus is about $9 million.

This comes out to 0.035% of total revenue. If that number holds true for DVC dues then he gets about 35 cents for every $1,000 spent in dues.

This assumes that 100% of dues payments is included in the Total Revenue figure.

As to keeping dues down, yes I believe they do make an honest attempt. Besides, they actually have a fiduciary responsibility to all of us. That means legally, they must manage the finances in a prudent manner.

 

[disneyberry]

i've updated the original tables with new 2004 figures.
right now all that's missing is the VB subsidized figure for 2003.

also, since it's been a while since i did the last table, i spent some time redoing the absolute difference table posted by Lisa, using calculations from my spreadsheet which uses up to 4 decimal places. that's why the #s are a bit different from Lisa's first table.

UPDATE 12/29/03:
just some new recalculations based on numbers that were missing before, but i found on some older posts here.

DVC Dues Absolute Difference Increase/Decrease History

(EDIT: Tables can now be referenced by clicking the link in my signature on Page1 of this thread.)

 

[disneyberry]

btw, using a simple compounding formula in Excel, the following is the forecast i calculated for dues in 2042:

OKW $11.30
BWV $13.07
VWL $12.98
BCV $12.85
VBR $14.36
HHI $11.88

summing all the dues for all 38 years left, the total dues paid from 2004 - 2042 would be:

OKW $265.58
BWV $307.10
VWL $304.90
BCV $301.84
VBR $337.44
HHI $279.00

multiply the above figures by an example 150points contract, and the following are the total $ amount in dues a 150pt owner will have paid DVC by 2042:

OKW $39836.46
BWV $46065.58
VWL $45735.10
BCV $45275.69
VBR $50616.33
HHI $41849.63

pretty scary, isn't it?
and this is using just a hypothetical 3% dues increase rate. who knows what the actual dues increase rate will be over the next 38 years!

btw, SSR from 2004 - 2054 would be $445.29/pt, which for a 150pt contract would end up being $66793.04!
carefully consider those extra years!

 

[PamOKW]

Just as an FYI, the Vero Beach subsidy for 2001 and earlier applied to purchasers prior to 4/1/1998. For 2002 and beyond, it only applies to purchasers prior to 1/1/1996.

It's also interesting that if you compare BWV and OKW for the life of BWV, the average increase comes out the same.

 

[Lisa F]

Thanks, disneyberry! I just hand calculated the entries, yours is much better.

Just to put things into perspective, if BWV dues are $13.07/point and we figure we pay about $2.13/point/year for the initial investment ((original purchase price + interest) / (#points * years left when purchased)), our points will likely cost us about $15.20 in the final year of DVC. We just made a reservation in a 1 bedroom standard at BWV. A week (including weekends) is 174 points, so we will have paid just about $2300 for that week, or just about $330/night, or $295/night pre-tax. You can't even get a 1br for that NOW... okay, maybe during the value season with AP discounts you can, but try getting an AP discount at a DVC resort during food and wine festival at an epcot resort. Not too shabby (right now we figure we are paying the equivalent of $142/night pre-tax and $158/night post tax for a week in a 1 bedroom, including those high weekend points.

 

[mittelst]

I know this is an old thread, but a friend just referred me to it. I'm doing a analysis of DVC costs vs. hotel costs.

I've got an Excel spread sheet that maps out a $1000 vacation (accomodations only, works out to be about 6 nights at a moderate) at 2%, 5%, and 10% increases up to the year 2042. At the low end of 2%, I'll have spent a total of about $58,000 if I take this 6-night vacation yearly until 2042.
If I was to purchase 150 OKW pts resale now for about $10,000, and MF goes up about 2.6%/year, I'll have spent a total of about $46,500 by 2042.
The break-even is about year 2026. Quite a while from now, but that's at only a 2% hotel rate increase.

Does anyone know how WDW hotel rates have increased since 1971? I've seen bits and pieces (i.e., $49/night for a room at the Poly in the early 70's), but not a fully history.

Thanks!