DVC direct sales very very low in Feb

[Sandisw]

Yes, but what were sales like then? I literally have no idea. It’s longer ago than anyone kept track.

Also points were like $60 back then, IIRC.

I bought in 2009 at BLT and price was $104 with a minimum of 160…with incentives we were at $92.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

There was no DVC in the 80’s. The minimum in 1994 at the Disney Vacation Club Resort. , now OKW, was 230 points inthe low 50’s. Not sure of exact number and don’t feel like rummaging in attic to find right now.

Plus the length of stay park tickets for 1/2 your group for a certain number of years. Not certain if they had discounts for certain point levels like now and for many years.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I bought in 2009 at BLT and price was $104 with a minimum of 160…with incentives we were at $92.

Plus you probably got matching DP's and a Cruise or something else too.

 

[tjkraz]

I think an increasing issue for Disney will be the lack of families getting sucked into the bubble, and then as a result, DVC.

When we started coming with our toddlers in 2015, it was so easy. Magical Express meant no car seats, luggage magically appeared in our room without having to lift a finger. DDP was pre paid and allowed us to experience many character and themed meals. Pre booked FPs meant us parents showed up on vacation and could sit back and enjoy our kids being entertained. In my friend group, the common refrain amongst fellow parents was STAY ON SITE - it’s easy and so worth it. The seamlessness is what converted my DH from a non disney fan to the proud DVC owner he is today.

I compare that with the “next generation” in our friend group - parents with toddlers today. None of them stay on site. They rent a house and do a couple days of Disney while exploring the rest of Central Florida.

I fear the pool of future DVCers is shrinking rapidly.

Friend groups usually aren't a great barometer for the public at large.

DVC sold quite well throughout 2022 with no DME and 3 years since any dining plan was offered. Even Genie+ has been with us for 18 months now. Certainly any change has the potential to chip away at the pool of prospects. But I'm skeptical that changes implemented in early 2020 and late 2021 are just now massively impacting DVC in February 2023.

Think about what has changed since....oh...October 2022. That will probably provide better insight into how sales went from 145k to 89k in 4 months.

 

[Sandisw]

What? You can’t on the one hand claim you are coming out ahead after 8 years because you can sell it while at the same time claiming that you are holding it and coming out ahead. I’m sorry, but this is just bad advice to prospective buyers. The breakeven point (if it even really exists anymore) for direct is not 8 years, it’s decades.

Depends on how you define the break even point..We did not worry about things like time value of money because we were spending the money regardless and felt it wasn’t an important figure.

i also don’t think using renting is a fair comparison unless you would definitely rent if you don’t buy.

I have not calculated anything but I do think there is no set definition of “break even” that applies because we all choose to view financial decisions a bit differently.

That’s what we did…we compared yearly room costs at CR to yearly cost of DVCand went from there…it was simple, yes, but what we decided was the best way to compare

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I bought in 2009 at BLT and price was $104 with a minimum of 160…with incentives we were at $92.

Ok: $104 x 160 = $16,640. Based on this inflation calculator I found on the internets that works out to $23,577 in 2023 dollars - the actual minimum outlay today is 38% higher, $32,550. That’s meaningful, IMO.

With incentives I’m guessing the gap is even bigger but I can’t do that math without knowing how many points you bought to get the $92.

 

[Sandisw]

Plus you probably got matching DP's and a Cruise or something else too.

We did get them for One of our contracts but not the one that was $92/pt. It was just a straight discount of $12 off.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok: $104 x 160 = $16,640. Based on this inflation calculator I found on the internets that works out to $23,577 in 2023 dollars - the actual minimum outlay today is 38% higher, $32,550. That’s meaningful, IMO.

With incentives I’m guessing the gap is even bigger but I can’t do that math without knowing how many points you bought to get the $92.

it was 180 points…and i agree the price has grown faster, but just wanted you to have n idea of where we were at in 2009…

 

[RichVIII]

Friend groups usually aren't a great barometer for the public at large.

DVC sold quite well throughout 2022 with no DME and 3 years since any dining plan was offered. Even Genie+ has been with us for 18 months now. Certainly any change has the potential to chip away at the pool of prospects. But I'm skeptical that changes implemented in early 2020 and late 2021 are just now massively impacting DVC in February 2023.

Think about what has changed since....oh...October 2022. That will probably provide better insight into how sales went from 145k to 89k in 4 months.

While I generally agree with this, cash and revenge travel has made people want to travel - regardless of the changes. I do think some are finding the experience less than what they remember. Some bad press and now economic concerns, it all is just a mix of things.

 

[Bearval]

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program.../5537-dvc-direct-sales-slump-in-february-2023

You have to ask is DVC in a really big slump, some shocking numbers for February would take 8 years for RIV to sell out at that pace

@wdrl mentions in the article that anyone aware of resale market is looking at that 50% discount very favourably

It isnt just DVC right now. Just a few weeks ago around me car dealerships were adding several thousand dollars to the MSRP of certain vehicles and now those same dealerships and vehicles have discounts and discounted financing. The fear of a recession has everyone pulling back on non-essential spending.

 

[scoobdoo]

The economy is the correct answer. However, I’ll throw in Chapek taking a pin to the bubble. There’s no real need to stay onsite any longer as families mix their trips with universal etc..
Another question I’ll pose, has a yearly Disney trip become stale? Disney sold me into DVC with parks strategy. A shiny Pandora opened and at the time Galaxy Edge, TSL we’re being built. Epcot revamp and Tron were announced. Where is the same strategy today.. it’s cut, cut and cut. Not to mention AP’s.. it’s one thing to take the perk away, but to stop selling all together?

you‘re absolutely right — after tron opens there isn’t a single E Ticket under construction, absolutely unprecedented. and no, a retheming of splash doesn’t count.

 

[Sandisw]

The economy is the correct answer. However, I’ll throw in Chapek taking a pin to the bubble. There’s no real need to stay onsite any longer as families mix their trips with universal etc..
Another question I’ll pose, has a yearly Disney trip become stale? Disney sold me into DVC with parks strategy. A shiny Pandora opened and at the time Galaxy Edge, TSL we’re being built. Epcot revamp and Tron were announced. Where is the same strategy today.. it’s cut, cut and cut. Not to mention AP’s.. it’s one thing to take the perk away, but to stop selling all together?

If DVD had the power and sway to get get APs offered to DVC owners, believe me, we’d have access, especially if they believe lack of them is impacting sales.

Frustrating as it is, it’s why perks can not be guaranteed because DVD themselves have to rely on others and in this case, DPEP isn’t budging on letting any subset of guests have access.

 

[ocdb8r1]

you‘re absolutely right — after tron opens there isn’t a single E Ticket under construction, absolutely unprecedented. and no, a retheming of splash doesn’t count.

I don't think it's unprecedented...anyone remember the 80's? Zero "E Ticket" attractions from when Thunder Mountain opened in 1980 until 1989 when Hollywood Studios opened. There were also several years in the late 90's with little to no premier attractions (until Animal Kingdom opened). It's only been in the last 20 years that Disney World has tried to have at least one new E Ticket attraction to launch every 12-18 months.

COVID clearly impacted their schedules, but they are due for a bit of a lull in ride production. In the last 6 years all of the following have launched:

Avatar Flight of the Passage
Slinky Dog Dash
Millenium Falcon
Rise of the Resistance
M&M Runaway Railway
Remy's Ratatouille
Guardians Cosmic Rewind
Tron Lightcycle Run

Yes, we've been spoiled by the recent flurry if great new rides, but it has been the exception, not the rule, in the life of Disney World. The encouraging news is that (new/reinstalled) management seems to realize that key to their success will be continued investment in building capacity at the parks.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I don't think it's unprecedented...anyone remember the 80's? Zero "E Ticket" attractions from when Thunder Mountain opened in 1980 until 1989 when Hollywood Studios opened. There were also several years in the late 90's with little to no premier attractions (until Animal Kingdom opened). It's only been in the last 20 years that Disney World has tried to have at least one new E Ticket attraction to launch every 12-18 months.

COVID clearly impacted their schedules, but they are due for a bit of a lull in ride production. In the last 6 years all of the following have launched:

Avatar Flight of the Passage
Slinky Dog Dash
Millenium Falcon
Rise of the Resistance
M&M Runaway Railway
Remy's Ratatouille
Guardians Cosmic Rewind
Tron Lightcycle Run

Yes, we've been spoiled by the recent flurry if great new rides, but it has been the exception, not the rule, in the life of Disney World. The encouraging news is that (new/reinstalled) management seems to realize that key to their success will be continued investment in building capacity at the parks.

Not to mention the period between the opening of Animal Kingdom and 7DMT - in a decade we got Mission Space - a replacement in and of itself - and Soarin and then the next best was…Lights Motors Action? Nemo?

I agree with the poster that they would do well to preview what’s next a little better but my confidence is higher on that than it was 3 months ago when a certain other Bob was in charge.

 

[tjkraz]

I don't think it's unprecedented...anyone remember the 80's? Zero "E Ticket" attractions from when Thunder Mountain opened in 1980 until 1989 when Hollywood Studios opened. There were also several years in the late 90's with little to no premier attractions (until Animal Kingdom opened).

Well, I don't think DVC's primary market today is people who were visiting in the 80s. If they're to continue to grow, they need to be marketing to 2023's young families. Expectations have changed and there's more competition for leisure dollars.

The issue for WDW right now is that it takes them a long time to build anything, and beyond TRON and Moana they have NOTHING in the works. I'm not saying the next new attraction will take as long as TRON, which was obviously impacted by the pandemic. But anything significant is going to be a ~3 year project. If that's the case, we're in for a pretty meager 2024 and 2025.

I doubt that's impacting DVC sales right now. The target customer for direct points is probably not forward-thinking enough to base their purchase decision on short-term construction forecasts.

But over time, it will catch up with them. With nothing new to showcase, Disney will have to work harder just to get people into the parks, then convince them it's worthwhile to invest in DVC.

Yes, we've been spoiled by the recent flurry if great new rides, but it has been the exception, not the rule, in the life of Disney World.

If you're operating 4 theme parks, yeah, you really should be adding at least a couple new attractions every year. Not every one needs to be an "E" ticket--and not all that you listed are.

Personally I'm not resistant to higher prices. But if they're going to charge higher prices, they better continue to reinvest and increase value.

 

[DVCsloth]

$30k plus dues is pretty steep for a lot of families to justify. They need to add some DVC perks. Otherwise, just book a hotel room once in a while for shorter and less frequent stays.

 

[Sandisw]

$30k plus dues is pretty steep for a lot of families to justify. They need to add some DVC perks. Otherwise, just book a hotel room once in a while for shorter and less frequent stays.

Remember that they promote how easy it is to finance it so it’s the monthly payment that catches people’s intention.

Even that, though, right now may be something that isn’t enough.

 

[mz-s]

I think a lot of people are in a "wait and see" period. The revenge travel bubble seems to have peaked.

I don't think Disney is going to reduce prices under any circumstances unless the bottom really drops out, which I don't think anybody is predicting.

 

[DianaMB333]

Direct Aulani still gets subsidized fees? Or the only option is searching resales?
Tks

 

[DeeBee3]

Another question I’ll pose, has a yearly Disney trip become stale? Disney sold me into DVC with parks strategy. A shiny Pandora opened and at the time Galaxy Edge, TSL we’re being built. Epcot revamp and Tron were announced. Where is the same strategy today.. it’s cut, cut and cut. Not to mention AP’s.. it’s one thing to take the perk away, but to stop selling all together?

We are newish to DVC and it is not stale for us. There are multiples things we haven't done each time. We make a concerted effort to do something new each time - ride, restaurant, show, etc. For us it doesn't have to be a huge new thing like Tron. We just enjoyed Country Bears Jamboree in December! We couldn't believe how much we loved it and we had never watched before. For us, it was almost the hit of our Christmas trip! You just never know.