DVC direct sales very very low in Feb

[RoseGold]

I’ll maintain 6 months from now when DVC prices are lower that people contemplate today, the people pushing back today will revise their stance in H2 2023 and say well of course DVC prices are lower, “we all saw that coming.” And proceed to disregard any suggestion connecting the dots because it’s irrelevant.

If you're right, then this is 2009-2010, which was a GOOD time to buy VGC. At $125, maybe the best buy for any timeshare in history. You buying?

 

[Stank]

If you're right, then this is 2009-2010, which was a GOOD time to buy VGC. At $125, maybe the best buy for any timeshare in history. You buying?

Why would this be 2009-2010? By then everyone realized we were in recession. Today, a large chunk of the population doesn’t see a problem. This is more like early 2008 when 95% of the population were saying everything was fine. They owned 5 homes after all.

I’m not buying for a number of reasons. One, DVC will go down further. Two, and more importantly, cash is king. No need to lock up cash in illiquid assets (and incurring more Obligations with dues) given these interesting times.

 

[Sandisw]

You must be referencing some of the board comments - "sky is the limit". They literally pop up for ever new resort.
DVC would not have been thinking that.

To add, many of us who have been around through new resorts also know that DVD prices near current active resorts to start, and did not expect things to be out of whack with that line of thinking.

 

[sethschroeder]

The breakeven point for renting versus a **direct** purchase is way further out than 8 years.

Only if you keep the contract. If you sell the contract after 8 years the math is different.

Essentially you need to save around $70-$100.

$20-$22/rental
$8-$9/MFs

$11-$14/savings per point

The math is harder right now because you can't get new APs.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Only if you keep the contract. If you sell the contract after 8 years the m

Essentially you need to save around $70-$100.

$20-$22/rental
$8-$9/MFs

$11-$14/savings per point

The math is harder right now because you can't get new APs.

I’m not sure how you can say that with any confidence as the future resale value of the resort (especially with possible restrictions) is a giant X factor, but even if you could, what would be the point of selling at the breakeven point? You’d have been much better off not having bought in the first place in that scenario and just booking with cash for 8 years.

 

[tjkraz]

January 19 - March 1, 2023 featured the single highest prices on active resorts. Ever. 150 points at Grand Floridian was going for $215 to new buyers and $211 for add-ons. One year prior it was available for $199 and $197. Today things are a little better than February at $212 / $207.

Riviera went from $199 / $195 last March to $216 / $212 in Feb '23 to $215 / $210 now.

Both recently added Disney Visa savings and free luggage offers which add value to the tune of $4-5 per point.

Personally the advice I was giving people in February was along the lines of "prices are so bad now, they couldn't possibly get worse in March." But far be it from me to predict what will happen. I'll just sit back and wait to see how buyers respond. Since the sales figures represent the date on which a deed is recorded, "March" sales will include a lot of transactions under the poor February incentives. It won't be until April that we get a real look at how much impact difference of a few dollars per point + free luggage has.

 

[Nabas]

Still too early to panic about direct sales. With spring break, March and April tend to be among the strongest months. We'll have a better idea which way the market is going once we see numbers for those months.

 

[Aussie RJ]

The economy is the correct answer. However, I’ll throw in Chapek taking a pin to the bubble. There’s no real need to stay onsite any longer as families mix their trips with universal etc..
Another question I’ll pose, has a yearly Disney trip become stale? Disney sold me into DVC with parks strategy. A shiny Pandora opened and at the time Galaxy Edge, TSL we’re being built. Epcot revamp and Tron were announced. Where is the same strategy today.. it’s cut, cut and cut. Not to mention AP’s.. it’s one thing to take the perk away, but to stop selling all together?

 

[john7994]

The economy is the correct answer. However, I’ll throw in Chapek taking a pin to the bubble. There’s no real need to stay onsite any longer as families mix their trips with universal etc..
Another question I’ll pose, has a yearly Disney trip become stale? Disney sold me into DVC with parks strategy. A shiny Pandora opened and at the time Galaxy Edge, TSL we’re being built. Epcot revamp and Tron were announced. Where is the same strategy today.. it’s cut, cut and cut. Not to mention AP’s.. it’s one thing to take the perk away, but to stop selling all together

I think circumstances vary widely - the only thing that has dampened my view is the lack of out of state AP to buy. But, I am not solely a "parks" person either. We are also multi-trip per year people. We have already been in January, returning in few weeks to WDW, at DL in June, Aulani in October, and back to WDW after Thanksgiving with a day at UO. So, not sure what all the demographics break into for owners.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think an increasing issue for Disney will be the lack of families getting sucked into the bubble, and then as a result, DVC.

When we started coming with our toddlers in 2015, it was so easy. Magical Express meant no car seats, luggage magically appeared in our room without having to lift a finger. DDP was pre paid and allowed us to experience many character and themed meals. Pre booked FPs meant us parents showed up on vacation and could sit back and enjoy our kids being entertained. In my friend group, the common refrain amongst fellow parents was STAY ON SITE - it’s easy and so worth it. The seamlessness is what converted my DH from a non disney fan to the proud DVC owner he is today.

I compare that with the “next generation” in our friend group - parents with toddlers today. None of them stay on site. They rent a house and do a couple days of Disney while exploring the rest of Central Florida.

I fear the pool of future DVCers is shrinking rapidly.

All of this.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think someone here a week ago mocked the notion we’re in a recession

Sometimes I think you’re just here to try to make people here think we’re in a recession. It’s all you post about.

I’m sure the economy being weaker than 2011-2019 has had a negative impact on DVC sales. I’m not sure why we need to bring doom and gloom onto every page though.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Here is my theory.

It’s a little bit the economy, but not a ton, because most people are better off today than they were just before Covid.

It’s a little bit the price.

It’s a little bit the removal of several reasons to stay on site, most notably the 60 day FP+ booking advantage. Genie+ has no onsite advantage and ILLs apply to just 4 rides.

But I think a significant chunk of it is also the 150 point minimum. Not only does that require a large cash outlay, it’s just a lot of points if you plan to mostly do studios, as most people seem to do anymore.

I get why they wanted to raise it from 25 but I think they overshot.

 

[sethschroeder]

I’m not sure how you can say that with any confidence as the future resale value of the resort (especially with possible restrictions) is a giant X factor, but even if you could, what would be the point of selling at the breakeven point? You’d have been much better off not having bought in the first place in that scenario and just booking with cash for 8 years.

You are comparing to renting.... Where at the end you own nothing.

So you end the 8 year period in the same spot except one comes out financially ahead.

Otherwise your breakeven means you are massively ahead financially.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Here is my theory.

It’s a little bit the economy, but not a ton, because most people are better off today than they were just before Covid.

It’s a little bit the price.

It’s a little bit the removal of several reasons to stay on site, most notably the 60 day FP+ booking advantage. Genie+ has no onsite advantage and ILLs apply to just 4 rides.

But I think a significant chunk of it is also the 150 point minimum. Not only does that require a large cash outlay, it’s just a lot of points if you plan to mostly do studios, as most people seem to do anymore.

I get why they wanted to raise it from 25 but I think they overshot.

But wasn’t minimum buy in over 200 points at one point? I agree with the rest of your logic, including the minimum points

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

But wasn’t minimum buy in over 200 points at one point? I agree with the rest of your logic, including the minimum points

Yes, but what were sales like then? I literally have no idea. It’s longer ago than anyone kept track.

Also points were like $60 back then, IIRC.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Yes, but what were sales like then? I literally have no idea. It’s longer ago than anyone kept track.

Also points were like $60 back then, IIRC.

$60pp back in the 80’s was still probably expensive for most people. My point is that DVC has and is a luxury good not meant for the masses. The only difference now is the proliferation of DVC resorts not proportional to the number of people that can afford it?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Here is my theory.

It’s a little bit the economy, but not a ton, because most people are better off today than they were just before Covid.

It’s a little bit the price.

It’s a little bit the removal of several reasons to stay on site, most notably the 60 day FP+ booking advantage. Genie+ has no onsite advantage and ILLs apply to just 4 rides.

But I think a significant chunk of it is also the 150 point minimum. Not only does that require a large cash outlay, it’s just a lot of points if you plan to mostly do studios, as most people seem to do anymore.

I get why they wanted to raise it from 25 but I think they overshot.

I think this hits it on the head.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

You are comparing to renting.... Where at the end you own nothing.

So you end the 8 year period in the same spot except one comes out financially ahead.

Otherwise your breakeven means you are massively ahead financially.

What? You can’t on the one hand claim you are coming out ahead after 8 years because you can sell it while at the same time claiming that you are holding it and coming out ahead. I’m sorry, but this is just bad advice to prospective buyers. The breakeven point (if it even really exists anymore) for direct is not 8 years, it’s decades.

 

[badeacon]

$60pp back in the 80’s was still probably expensive for most people. My point is that DVC has and is a luxury good not meant for the masses. The only difference now is the proliferation of DVC resorts not proportional to the number of people that can afford it?

There was no DVC in the 80’s. The minimum in 1994 at the Disney Vacation Club Resort. , now OKW, was 230 points inthe low 50’s. Not sure of exact number and don’t feel like rummaging in attic to find right now.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

There was no DVC in the 80’s. The minimum in 1994 at the Disney Vacation Club Resort. , now OKW, was 230 points inthe low 50’s. Not sure of exact number and don’t feel like rummaging in attic to find right now.

The pricing history is here
https://www.disboards.com/threads/t...-updated-december-2021.3655476/#post-58628430