DVC Contract Sales Year 2000 - 2006 Jun

[TroyWDW]

Below is a chart showing the DVC monthly contract sales. DVC has been selling SSR at a rate that is double the historical rate.

DVC Contract Sales By Month -- Year 2000 through Jun2006

Note: The data reflects the official sale date, not pre-sales.

 

[Caskbill]

Interesting information. What is the source for your data?

Doing a rough 'addition' of monthly sales, it appears about 44,000 contracts sold. I wonder what percentage of those are to current members as Add-On contracts, and what percentage are to brand new members.

One would think that after awhile existing members would have purchased their add-on's, so sales eventually would lean toward mostly sales to new members. If that's the case, it appears they could currently be adding as many as 1500 to 2000 new members a month.

That's impressive and certainly contradicts those naysayers who jsut a couple of years ago were touting it would take 8-years for SSR to sell out.

 

[Spine_DR]

That data is very interesting, I figured it would take a long time ot sell out such a huge resort like SSR, but if those figures are correct then my guide saying that "SSR should sell out by Feb 2007" might actually have some truth to it.

 

[MinnieGirl33]

Very interesting!

Anybody know what the deal was in June 02 that caused the spike? Or the April 04 spike for that matter?

We didn't become members til 9/04.

 

[TroyWDW]

Interesting information. What is the source for your data?.

Deed Records.

Doing a rough 'addition' of monthly sales, it appears about 44,000 contracts sold. I wonder what percentage of those are to current members as Add-On contracts, and what percentage are to brand new members.?.

Just to clarify, the chart includes all sales of DVC of which roughly 93% are SSR in the past couple years. You've got good eyes to approximate 44,000 SSR total contracts from the chart.

That's impressive and certainly contradicts those naysayers who jsut a couple of years ago were touting it would take 8-years for SSR to sell out.

DVC just officially added SSR Buildings 85 & 86 to the condominium declaration this month. So they are almost done with Building 12.

 

[TroyWDW]

Anybody know what the deal was in June 02 that caused the spike? Or the April 04 spike for that matter?

The spikes are due to "Pre-Sales". DVC didn't have any buildings constructed that they could legally record as sales. So instead, they do pre-sales of buildings. When the building is constructed then they legally record the sale on that date. Hence, many contracts get recorded in a short time.

 

[Spine_DR]

Since the chart only goes back to 2000 can't tell for sure but it looks like SSR was the biggest presale they have done.

 

[tomandrobin]

If this chart is true, it would help explain the rapid price increases DVC has been making the past two years.

 

[DisneyBill]

Any way to know how many points these estimated 44,000 contracts represent?

 

[drusba]

"Since the chart only goes back to 2000 can't tell for sure but it looks like SSR was the biggest presale they have done."

Other than some just before the original Disney Vacation Club Resort (now OKW) first opened, SSR was the only pre-sale they had ever done. They did not start selling BWV, VWL, or BCV until they were ready for occupancy.

I believe the May 2002 spike represents sales just before the effective date of an announced price increase and end of certain incentives. A lot of those contracts were likely add-ons. There were no pre-sales at that time. I believe May 2004 was also just before a price increase and in the earlier SSR pre-sale months.

 

[mydogdrew]

That data is very interesting, I figured it would take a long time ot sell out such a huge resort like SSR, but if those figures are correct then my guide saying that "SSR should sell out by Feb 2007" might actually have some truth to it.

This just can't be. I believe there are six units left (pre-sale) to sell of eighteen total. They have been selling for about 3 years which would indicate at least 18 months to sell out. Perhaps Feb 2008? Also, as soon as they announce something new, sales for SSR will slow dramatically.

 

[tomandrobin]

Also, as soon as they announce something new, sales for SSR will slow dramatically.

Maybe not! You are assuming that new owners won't buy SSR because they want to do an add-on at the new resort. Why would a new wait one or two years for a new resort to come on line, if they don't already own? Also, you underestimate the sales that are coming in from California. The only drop in sales I would forsee is in the add-on sales.

 

[mydogdrew]

Maybe not! You are assuming that new owners won't buy SSR because they want to do an add-on at the new resort. Why would a new wait one or two years for a new resort to come on line, if they don't already own? Also, you underestimate the sales that are coming in from California. The only drop in sales I would forsee is in the add-on sales.

You'd be in the minority then (and that's not what I'm assuming). So why haven't they announced the new DVC resort yet? The only reason is to support SSR sales as long as possible. SSR is a tough sell head to head against CRV or similar, especially without the 12 year advantage.

Also, is that data table reliable? Virtually no contracts from Nov 2003 to April 2004? What's with that?

 

[LIFERBABE]

Thank you for posting! Its nice to have some data and analysis to go with all the speculation.

I agree with Caskbill, that this contradicts the naysayers.

I think many people underestimate the sales of SSR.

Also, is that data table reliable? Virtually no contracts from Nov 2003 to April 2004? What's with that?

The OP explained that was presales. SSR did not officially open until May 2004. Thats when the points hit the books. The data was collected from recorded deeds. We all have access to this same info, the OP compiled it.

We purchased BCV right before sell out in 2003. Between that time and the opening of SSR, active points were scarce. There were waits for all add-ons at the sold outs and ROFR was not as active. SSR was preselling so there was work to do, but the contracts were not posting.

 

[tomandrobin]

You'd be in the minority then (and that's not what I'm assuming). So why haven't they announced the new DVC resort yet? The only reason is to support SSR sales as long as possible. SSR is a tough sell head to head against CRV or similar, especially without the 12 year advantage.

Also, is that data table reliable? Virtually no contracts from Nov 2003 to April 2004? What's with that?

Head to head that would be true. But there is no other head-to-head competition. However, my points were .......

1. Any new resort would not be available for maybe two years. So, by your guess everyone who wants to be part of DVC is going to wait for the new resort to be built, if one is announced. Why would they do that? They don't own now, but want to own....so they are going to wait?

But, I do think the add-ons will drop. If you already own, you can wait for a new resort to be built. Use your current membership, do an add-on in two years.

2. The California DVC sales are going to keep on going regardless of what is being sold. They are being sold to be part of DVC, sight unseen. Its not so much selling SSR to them, but selling them part of Disney and how many wonderful future vacations they will have at Disney.

Ps - I don't know if the table is reliable or accurate. I was just commenting like you. Just trying to size it up and interpt it.

 

[drusba]

Since this is from a "deed record", public record for real estate transactions, the explanation for those low sales and huge spike afterward in Nov 03- April 04 is likely two-fold. First, during that time there was nothing for sale new, except Vero still had some and presales for Saratoga. Saratoga officially opened toward the end of May. Everything for it was finally approved about a month before. All those pre-sale contracts for Saratoga were likely held for recording until that approval occurred. In other words, that May spike in 04 is mostly all the original Saratoga pre-sales.

 

[mydogdrew]

Head to head that would be true. But there is no other head-to-head competition. However, my points were .......

1. Any new resort would not be available for maybe two years. So, by your guess everyone who wants to be part of DVC is going to wait for the new resort to be built, if one is announced. Why would they do that? They don't own now, but want to own....so they are going to wait?

But, I do think the add-ons will drop. If you already own, you can wait for a new resort to be built. Use your current membership, do an add-on in two years.

2. The California DVC sales are going to keep on going regardless of what is being sold. They are being sold to be part of DVC, sight unseen. Its not so much selling SSR to them, but selling them part of Disney and how many wonderful future vacations they will have at Disney.

Ps - I don't know if the table is reliable or accurate. I was just commenting like you. Just trying to size it up and interpt it.

Exactly, I do think many, many would wait (renting points for a year is not so bad). I think DVC understands this clearly and this is why there has been no announcement re: what's next. A CRV announcement would certainly stall SSR sales.

 

[tomandrobin]

Exactly, I do think many, many would wait (renting points for a year is not so bad). I think DVC understands this clearly and this is why there has been no announcement re: what's next. A CRV announcement would certainly stall SSR sales.

LOL....Have you been reading the posts about DVC cracking down on the transfer of points and only allowing members only to call MS. How many non-DVC people, hell...how many non-DIS members even know about renting points? I didn't know there was such athing into I cam across this site. You keep making some vague assumptions about prospective owners. You need to step outside your "DVC" box and look around.

 

[SuzanneSLO]

LOL....how many non-DIS members even know about renting points?

Renting points is discussed on mentioned on both mousesavers.com and on allearsnet.com. Both of these sources, as well as the DIS Boards, are referenced in the Unofficial Guide.

Also, points and reservations are for rent on ebay all the time. But you may be right that those who purchase on ebay may not realize that they are "renting" points or a reservation from a DVC member.

 

[tomandrobin]

Renting points is discussed on mentioned on both mousesavers.com and on allearsnet.com. Both of these sources, as well as the DIS Boards, are referenced in the Unofficial Guide.

Also, points and reservations are for rent on ebay all the time. But you may be right that those who purchase on ebay may not realize that they are "renting" points or a reservation from a DVC member.

I can guarantee you that no one that I talk to Disney has ever heard of DISboards, mousesavers or allears. Most don't know about DVC, and the ones that have, do not know how it works. I get questions all the time about DVC. How much does it cost, is it weeks, what are the points for, once you use the points are they gone and do you need to but more to replace them?

I am sure you get the same questions from friends, family, etc who want to know more.