DVC buying strategy for new CA DVC resort.

UrsulaWantsYourSoul

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 23, 2020
I really doubt beginning pricing for DL Tower with possible incentives will be anywhere near $260. I appreciate the comparison for argument's sake but I would guess that direct price for VGC is more due to extreme supply and demand which will not be the case (for the tower) when the tower first goes on sale. It's hard to know how lux the new resort will be but location of VGC opening right into the middle of Downtown Disney and with it's own entrance into California Adventure - I'm betting the beginning price will be much lower. Most resale contracts I'm seeing for VGC are in the $215+ price range currently. That said, add 2-3 years of inflation and who knows. My bet though is the difference between VGC resale and Tower direct with opening incentives will be a wash or possibly in favor money-wise for Tower. But yes, DH and I are in the same question circle (since you can't get on the VGC waitlist)... VGC resale or DLTower direct? So many positives and negatives to weigh but since we can't afford either at this moment, we have a few years to think about it :-).
 
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sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
I really doubt beginning pricing for DL Tower with possible incentives will be anywhere near $260. I appreciate the comparison for argument's sake but I would guess that direct price for VGC is more due to extreme supply and demand which will not be the case (for the tower) when the tower first goes on sale. It's hard to know how lux the new resort will be but location of VGC opening right into the middle of Downtown Disney and with it's own entrance into California Adventure - I'm betting the beginning price will be much lower. Most resale contracts I'm seeing for VGC are in the $215+ price range currently. That said, add 2-3 years of inflation and who knows. My bet though is the difference between VGC resale and Tower direct with opening incentives will be a wash or possibly in favor money-wise for Tower. But yes, DH and I are in the same question circle (since you can't get on the VGC waitlist)... VGC resale or DLTower direct? So many positives and negatives to weigh but since we can't afford either at this moment, we have a few years to think about it :-).

People keep forgetting the most important part. What is the better deal?

DLV for $200/point
DLV for $300/point

Did you answer? Good you were likely wrong because here are the fake point charts:

@$200/point
Pods: 160/points a week
Studios: 180/points for a week

@$300/point
Pods: 106/points a week
Studios: 120/points a week

Point is the price point is really worthless at a resort you will use points exclusively at and will not have easy availability more than likely.
 
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HappyDisneyWife

Powered by pixie dust... and espresso ;)
DVC Gold
Joined
Jan 5, 2020
I really doubt beginning pricing for DL Tower with possible incentives will be anywhere near $260. I appreciate the comparison for argument's sake but I would guess that direct price for VGC is more due to extreme supply and demand which will not be the case (for the tower) when the tower first goes on sale. It's hard to know how lux the new resort will be but location of VGC opening right into the middle of Downtown Disney and with it's own entrance into California Adventure...
I completely agree that the DL Tower will be cheaper than VGC, but I have a slightly different take on the why: I believe both Disney’s (World & Land) will always have the Grands be their top luxe resort. I’m willing to be wrong on that, but clearly the Riviera was built with luxury in mind, yet it cost much less than VGF & even less than BLT (surely the Poly too- I just don’t remember!). So, location obviously matters, as was pointed out...

But as my young son so wisely put it, “It’s got grand in the name! So it has to be the best!!” 😉🤩
 

Eric Smith

Registered
Joined
Jun 1, 2017
I completely agree that the DL Tower will be cheaper than VGC, but I have a slightly different take on the why: I believe both Disney’s (World & Land) will always have the Grands be their top luxe resort. I’m willing to be wrong on that, but clearly the Riviera was built with luxury in mind, yet it cost much less than VGF & even less than BLT (surely the Poly too- I just don’t remember!). So, location obviously matters, as was pointed out...

But as my young son so wisely put it, “It’s got grand in the name! So it has to be the best!!” 😉🤩
Well, Grand Californian has the best location of any Disney hotel in the US. It’s the only one that has an exit directly in to a theme park. You can’t beat that.
 

UrsulaWantsYourSoul

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 23, 2020
People keep forgetting the most important part. What is the better deal?

DLV for $200/point
DLV for $300/point

Did you answer? Good you were likely wrong because here are the fake point charts:

@$200/point
Pods: 160/points a week, $10 MFs
Studios: 180/points for a week, $10 MFs

@$300/point
Pods: 106/points a week, $15 MFs
Studios: 120/points a week, $15 MFs

Point is the price point is really worthless at a resort you will use points exclusively at and will not have easy availability more than likely.
I'm not sure if I'm understanding your question but perhaps you are meaning that the cost per point dictates the point chart (which makes sense) so which would I rather a higher per point buy in with lower point chart or lower buy in with higher point chart? $300/point sure would be quite a bit higher (for a going price on a new property) than anything we've seen thus far though anything is possible.
I think I'd want like a $220-240 price per point with incentives for current members/early adopters down to like $200/210 with a medium point chart.
 

davidl81

Mouseketeer
Joined
Aug 12, 2008
To a large extent the prices and point chart will be limited by what cash cost are for the new tower and for Disney Land Hotel rooms themselves. You can't have it where a price (price per point and number of points needed per room) comes too close to normal cash rack rates for rooms. DVC still need to be able to sell it as a "discount" to just paying cash as you go for room (although that gap has been shrinking as the newer resorts have been built).
Looking at RIV for instance if I pick an early Feb week it would be 109 points for a tower studio, and $2900 (ballpark including taxes) for a cash price. So at $190 a point it is $20,710 upfront price. That is a 7 year break even, but of course that is not even counting MF's. Now add 8.31 a point to your 109 points and that add $905 a year to your cost. So now your break even goes to a tad bit over 10 years. (for arguments sake I am assuming that room rates will increase as the same as your time factor of money). Now this is rack rates and it still is a 10 year break even. If you get discounts on the rooms (say 20% off) and your break even is closer to 15 years. So already DVC is flirting with the math of the timeshare not really being a good value, I am not sure how much more they can make the points and the math still work out.
 
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limace

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 31, 2007
Thank you for your feedback.
How do you like VGC? When do you feel it "paid" itself off.
I would love your unique perspective on buying VGC.
I love it-my husband loves the craftsman style and I love the location. I prefer the DLH mid century style butVGC is fabulous.

Re paying off-that’s hard to tell. We bought our 100 points in 2017 for $140 (sob!!!) and have had two stays of 4-5 nights in a 2 bedroom-once with 8 And once with 6. If we hadn’t owned DVC, we wouldn’t have stayed at the Grand with those large groups-we would’ve gotten a suite offsite. So it didn’t necessarily save us money, but it made the experience so amazing. I was able to spend my 50th at the Grand with all my kids this January-sawWorld of Color on my birthday and was steps from my room. It’s hard to compete with that.
 

Nelson Rodriguez

Madd_Hatter
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Cost Wise the Grand Californian is currently being sold resale for approximately $200 a point (give or take). It is not available Direct; Disney has no point inventory to sell, and people have been on the waitlist for years. Assuming the new DVC tower is priced at $260; which is what VGC was at before they closed the waitlist. That is a $6000 savings per 100 points. I really don't see much on the above list I think are worth $6000. I see a lot of cool stuff on the list that I would love to do; but $6000 could make quite a fun list of other cool things to do too.
This is exactly what I am looking for.
Thank you very much for the breakdown.

Honestly the merch "discounts" aren't worth it for me.
Only "perk" I would like is the ability to book at WDW every once in a while.
 

Galun

Mouseketeer
Joined
Apr 24, 2013
I never quite get the appeal of VGC and the huge premium. The way Disneyland is designed, there are so many cheaper lodging options within walking distance or very short drive.

The only really great thing was the extra magic hour. We did toy story 5 times before the crowd from rope drop made their way there. That was huge time savings. But after doing it a couple of times it's not that appealing anymore.

If I really wanted VGC reservation with 11 month priority, I'd just pay $20+ to transfer in points. Still much better than paying almost $200 to buy in.
 

Eric Smith

Registered
Joined
Jun 1, 2017
I never quite get the appeal of VGC and the huge premium. The way Disneyland is designed, there are so many cheaper lodging options within walking distance or very short drive.

The only really great thing was the extra magic hour. We did toy story 5 times before the crowd from rope drop made their way there. That was huge time savings. But after doing it a couple of times it's not that appealing anymore.

If I really wanted VGC reservation with 11 month priority, I'd just pay $20+ to transfer in points. Still much better than paying almost $200 to buy in.
The fact that it’s the closest hotel to the parks by far and you don’t have to go through a security madhouse in the morning are pretty good selling points. It’s also a beautiful hotel.
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
I don’t think this analysis actually shows what you think it shows. The latter scenario would still cost more because the mai
I screwed up the MFs lol editing it. I just removed them since don't have my math in front of me.

Point was price per point means really nothing when Disney can just raise or lower the point requirement.
 
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Eric Smith

Registered
Joined
Jun 1, 2017
I screwed up the MFs lol editing it. I just removed them since don't have my math in front of me.

Point was price per point means really nothing when Disney can just raise or lower the point requirement.
Agreed, but Disneyland is a bit different that Disney World. I couldn’t ever see a need to stay at Disneyland for more than 4 nights.
 

Nelson Rodriguez

Madd_Hatter
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Yeah, we own at VGC and I would never feel the need to buy direct if that was the only place I planned to travel (we do WDW occasionally and bought a direct contract there back when the minimum was 25 points-I wouldn’t have gone higher than that based on our travel patterns). At DL, you save a whole $20 on your annual pass and get some merch discounts. That’s basically it. That plus the fact there are no direct VGC contracts available make resale an easy decision I think. Now, I love the theming at the DL hotel-I live in the pacific NW-we love the Grand but the theming doesn’t feel particularly unique or Disney to me-so I will definitely be tempted by the new tower there, but it’ll be hard to swallow the price, especially with the anticipated high point charts, resale restrictions, and the over-reliance on studios (we typically travel with our kids and a couple of their friends/adult daughter’s partner so book 2 bedrooms).
I would very much like to talk to you about your experiences since you are a member of that resort.
I will DM you in private with some very specific questions.
 

Nelson Rodriguez

Madd_Hatter
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
I love it-my husband loves the craftsman style and I love the location. I prefer the DLH mid century style butVGC is fabulous.

Re paying off-that’s hard to tell. We bought our 100 points in 2017 for $140 (sob!!!) and have had two stays of 4-5 nights in a 2 bedroom-once with 8 And once with 6. If we hadn’t owned DVC, we wouldn’t have stayed at the Grand with those large groups-we would’ve gotten a suite offsite. So it didn’t necessarily save us money, but it made the experience so amazing. I was able to spend my 50th at the Grand with all my kids this January-sawWorld of Color on my birthday and was steps from my room. It’s hard to compete with that.
@limace
Question to you specifically because you have experience with bookings.
How has your experience been with booking at that resort?
We are planning on 1 bedroom primarily and possibly a 2 bedroom every 3 years or so.
With limited availability, we are afraid of never getting a booking during the time we need it.
We are planners, so 12 months is fine for us for planning.
Should I be worried, or should I not?
 

limace

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 31, 2007
We have not problems booking, though only two bedrooms so far. The first year, we wanted to go the third week in June, right before points increased for summer. If I remember correctly, I had to waitlist one of the days, but it came through. I bought in July but didn’t close til fall, so was booking right before 7 months.
 

Nelson Rodriguez

Madd_Hatter
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
We have not problems booking, though only two bedrooms so far. The first year, we wanted to go the third week in June, right before points increased for summer. If I remember correctly, I had to waitlist one of the days, but it came through. I bought in July but didn’t close til fall, so was booking right before 7 months.
@limace

Thank you so much for your help.
Knowing someone in this situation is key to our purchase.
If you don't mind me asking, how many points do you recommend to consistently get 5 nights in June for a one bedroom?
When do you book? Is 12 months a must? or is 7 months doable? (For the 1 bedroom)
Thank you so much for the feedback.
 

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