DVC August 2024 Sales Numbers

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

The Poly/Riviera situation is interesting to me.

I don't find Poly direct as compelling, because even after the tower sells out, I can always get resale Poly points that are good at the tower and a whole slew of other nice resorts.

With Riviera, once the direct window closes, you will have to pay through the nose to get direct Riviera points, or buy resale RIV points that can only be used there.

So I'm much more inclined at the moment to buy more direct RIV points than I am direct Poly points.

Completely agree - especially when you compare their point charts.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Wouldn’t be surprised if resale prices start to soar again following the cut in interest rates.

I’ve been thinking along those lines all year (that lower rates will boost DVC prices)— I don’t expect this cut to be enough to move the needle that much, but I think it could shore up some of the resorts that are the best value (including BLT, SSR, and CCV)… maybe even give a boost to some of the 2042s, as I would assume the marginal buyer who is impacted by interest rates is more likely looking at lower cost contracts. OTOH, if Disney can get direct financing down a couple percent, it would probably juice direct sales as well.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I’ve been thinking along those lines all year (that lower rates will boost DVC prices)— I don’t expect this cut to be enough to move the needle that much, but I think it could shore up some of the resorts that are the best value (including BLT, SSR, and CCV)… maybe even give a boost to some of the 2042s, as I would assume the marginal buyer who is impacted by interest rates is more likely looking at lower cost contracts. OTOH, if Disney can get direct financing down a couple percent, it would probably juice direct sales as well.

I don’t believe that the DVC resale financing costs really moved up with the FOMC rate. But I’ll play along:

If the market is right the Fed rate will be just above 4% be the end of the year and just above 3% by the end of next year.

That could unlock the very stagnant housing market… which would definitely be good for economic activity and possibly help with household formation and the declining birth rates.

More babies + brighter economic prospects for parents= increased pool of Disney goers. More Disney goers -> more DVCers->increased resale pricing!

Also, more babies = need for more space = need to move from studios to villas = more points.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don’t believe that the DVC resale financing costs really moved up with the FOMC rate. But I’ll play along:

If the market is right the Fed rate will be just above 4% be the end of the year and just above 3% by the end of next year.

That could unlock the very stagnant housing market… which would definitely be good for economic activity and possibly help with household formation and the declining birth rates.

More babies + brighter economic prospects for parents= increased pool of Disney goers. More Disney goers -> more DVCers->increased resale pricing!

Also, more babies = need for more space = need to move from studios to villas = more points.

. deleted because I probably over shared

 

[McCrae]

I don’t believe that the DVC resale financing costs really moved up with the FOMC rate. But I’ll play along:

If the market is right the Fed rate will be just above 4% be the end of the year and just above 3% by the end of next year.

That could unlock the very stagnant housing market… which would definitely be good for economic activity and possibly help with household formation and the declining birth rates.

More babies + brighter economic prospects for parents= increased pool of Disney goers. More Disney goers -> more DVCers->increased resale pricing!

Also, more babies = need for more space = need to move from studios to villas = more points.

In 2008/09 demand for DVC cooled with the economic slow down. VGC took longer than expected to sell out…priced at 135.

DVC is a luxury purchase and would be one of the first things cut when people are under financial pressure…hopefully brighter economic time are ahead.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I don’t believe that the DVC resale financing costs really moved up with the FOMC rate. But I’ll play along:

If the market is right the Fed rate will be just above 4% be the end of the year and just above 3% by the end of next year.

That could unlock the very stagnant housing market… which would definitely be good for economic activity and possibly help with household formation and the declining birth rates.

I don’t think resale financing rose proportionately—but for people who live on debt (especially floating rate debt) everything got more expensive (credit cards, cars, etc.) AND tapping home equity became 2x as expensive. I think making it easier for people to tap their home equity (whether through sales, fixed seconds, or HELOCs) and lowering their total cost of credit will be a positive for the DVC environment if all else stayed constant (which is a separate but related guess).

 

[CastAStone]

Wouldn’t be surprised if resale prices start to soar again following the cut in interest rates.

I would.

Not that prices won’t start to increase soon; they will because supply and demand is already out of balance and that’s already happening.

But the historic correlation to interest rates isn’t there.

 

[CastAStone]

I don’t believe that the DVC resale financing costs really moved up with the FOMC rate

Yes. Both Monera (resale) and Palm Financial (direct) are offering the same rates to the same buyers as they were in January 2022 before the first rate hike.

 

[BayTower2010]

I don’t think resale financing rose proportionately—but for people who live on debt (especially floating rate debt) everything got more expensive (credit cards, cars, etc.) AND tapping home equity became 2x as expensive. I think making it easier for people to tap their home equity (whether through sales, fixed seconds, or HELOCs) and lowering their total cost of credit will be a positive for the DVC environment if all else stayed constant (which is a separate but related guess).

I recently retired from being a mortgage underwriter after 50 years in the business. The increase in HELOCs was widely predicted. First with the high first mortgage interest rates, no one is going to do a cash out refinance and lose a 3% interest rates to replace with a 7% rate--instead use a HELOC to access equity. I saw this cycle 5 times in my career. When interest rates come down (and they will come down), you will see a refinance boom with cash out refis to payoff HELOCS and maybe access a little additional equity. The market has been amazing in the increase in housing values, so there is an unprecedented amount of equity in the USA. The next couple of years is going to be a wild ride

 

[jrub]

Wonder the rate of defaults and deeds in lieu for these. That would be a good indicator as contracts could be upside down for a bit. If that rate is low there isn't a ton of risk for lenders since if they foreclose they can liquidate. Does DVC have any provisions about that? Like not paying your fees for x number of years?

 

[CarolynFH]

Wonder the rate of defaults and deeds in lieu for these. That would be a good indicator as contracts could be upside down for a bit. If that rate is low there isn't a ton of risk for lenders since if they foreclose they can liquidate. Does DVC have any provisions about that? Like not paying your fees for x number of years?

We know that DVC freezes accounts (cancels reservations and prevents booking) and ultimately forecloses when dues are in arrears, but I don’t think we know how far in arrears someone can be before DVC implements those measures. Understandably, no one has reported their own personal experience here - we’ve only had reports of rental reservations being cancelled, posted by the renters, not by the owners involved. We have seen reports from people who purchased foreclosed contracts and had to pay the dues owed, but I don’t recall seeing actual numbers, and there haven’t been very many of those posts that I can recall.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I recently retired from being a mortgage underwriter after 50 years in the business. The increase in HELOCs was widely predicted. First with the high first mortgage interest rates, no one is going to do a cash out refinance and lose a 3% interest rates to replace with a 7% rate--instead use a HELOC to access equity. I saw this cycle 5 times in my career. When interest rates come down (and they will come down), you will see a refinance boom with cash out refis to payoff HELOCS and maybe access a little additional equity. The market has been amazing in the increase in housing values, so there is an unprecedented amount of equity in the USA. The next couple of years is going to be a wild ride

As soon as I closed on my first house, the bank holding my mortgage offered me a HELOC based on my equity. I was really surprised and asked why they felt that would be a good idea and what they thought I would need a HELOC for. They encouraged me to buy a new car with it.

I said no thanks, but it made me wonder if home buyers took them up on these offers often. If so, and people cash out their equity for cash, maybe it could affect DVC pricing, depending on demand.

 

[RickNJane]

So do we think it's the location, styling, dues or ToT (taxes) that make the main difference in sales? (maybe a different "con" for each)

ToT for VDH is painful and a real con. As a side note TOT means dead in German!

 

[maui22]

For September so far (includes what is available on 9/12 at 2:44pm Florida time), CFW has 19 deeds for 2695 points.
Barring any surprises, seems it's on pace to exceed August sales.

Here's some additional information on CFW.
9/16 - 50, 100, 150, 50, 50, 200, 150 (7 deeds for 750)
9/18 - 150, 50 (2 deeds for 200)
9/19 - 200, 150 (2 deeds for 350)
9/20 - 300 (1 deed for 300)
9/23 - 100, 100 (2 deeds for 200)
9/24 - 500, 150 (2 deeds for 650)

That brings it to 35 deeds for 5145. Already exceeded August and there are still four more business days left in September.

 

[CastAStone]

Here's some additional information on CFW.
9/16 - 50, 100, 150, 50, 50, 200, 150 (7 deeds for 750)
9/18 - 150, 50 (2 deeds for 200)
9/19 - 200, 150 (2 deeds for 350)
9/20 - 300 (1 deed for 300)
9/23 - 100, 100 (2 deeds for 200)
9/24 - 500, 150 (2 deeds for 650)

That brings it to 35 deeds for 5145. Already exceeded August and there are still four more business days left in September.

7,000 points would be CFW’s second best month ever. They might get there!

 

[maui22]

7,000 points would be CFW’s second best month ever. They might get there!

I didn’t look closely, but the 500 point deed was actually signed in July. I don’t think there were many others like it, but it’s a reminder that county deeds are lagging indicator of true sales.

I wonder how the property is impacted by hurricanes. I thought there were instances where Disney evacuated them and put guests into hotel and DVC rooms. Guessing it was for some of the larger ones. Storm coming this week won’t impact September deeds on the county website, but would impact October and possibly a tiny bit of later months.

I recall WDW receiving so much rain once that the bus route under the water bridge by Contemporary was flooded. Buses had to be re-routed.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

HELOC… awesome!!! Rack up that debt!!!

 

[CarolynFH]

I wonder how the property is impacted by hurricanes. I thought there were instances where Disney evacuated them and put guests into hotel and DVC rooms. Guessing it was for some of the larger ones.

It depends on the storm, as you figured out, but not only is the campground low lying, trees being felled by high winds is the biggest danger, I think. So it's not unusual for Disney to close the campground and move people elsewhere, and IIRC FW has been closed for several days after some hurricanes while they cleared debris and fallen trees.

 

[Mouseforward]

It depends on the storm, as you figured out, but not only is the campground low lying, trees being felled by high winds is the biggest danger, I think. So it's not unusual for Disney to close the campground and move people elsewhere, and IIRC FW has been closed for several days after some hurricanes while they cleared debris and fallen trees.

FW cabins are also in a flood zone but I have had CMs confirm it’s trees that cause them to evacuate earlier ( treehouses as well)

 

[dvc lover 1970]

7,000 points would be CFW’s second best month ever. They might get there!

Yes they'll probably get there by 2065, just in time to repackage and resell