DUES Info! - All resorts dues have been released

[Brian Noble]

The flexibiilty of booking as an owner is somewhere between a discounted cash booking (where if you cancel you get cash back that can be used for any possible other purchase) and renting from an owner (where bookings are typically non-refundable).

It's probably a litlte closer to the former than the latter, from where I sit.

 

[Mousemath]

I broke out the spreadsheet when I saw this awful dues increase. For those interested, I had done a DCF based on my own inputs that said with 4.5% dues inflation, 4% discount rate, and assuming a 2025 value/pt for SSR of $14 growing with inflation, the fair value of a SSR point was $90. This one ugly dues figure takes that value to $83, and that’s with assuming we go back to 4.5% next year. You can debate any of the inputs of course but this news really is awful for contract values IMO. Of course, the resale market will do what it will do.

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

Resort	Total Dues	Operating	Cap. Reserves	Ad Valorem Tax
VGF	8.31	5.56	0.97	1.98
PVB	8.33	5.56	1.10	1.87
BLT	8.74	5.32	1.41	2.20
CCV	9.02	5.67	1.47	2.09
SSR	9.18	6.20	1.52	1.68
RIV	9.46	6.56	1.15	1.98
VGC	9.52	7.64	1.68	1.19
BWV	9.67	6.51	1.42	1.96
BRV	9.77	6.52	1.67	1.81
BCV	9.81	6.49	1.49	2.05
AKV	10.16	7.01	1.53	1.86
VDH	10.54	7.83	1.83	1.17
AUL	10.96	8.53	1.67	0.75
OKW	11.21	7.62	2.20	1.65
CFW	12.28	8.90	1.74	1.95
HHI	12.86	10.00	2.73	0.49
VB	14.89	11.42	2.90	0.57

Thanks for putting these together!!

Now I think BLT/CCV will remain SAP+ for a few more years (if you hide AULs).
Capital Reserve correlates with the age of the resorts (BPK definitely made VGF younger). I think those for VGF and PVB will definitely catch up over the years.
Operating cost (primarily driven by housekeeping and maintenance) will likely growth at similar speed across resorts within their own tiers (say <$7 and >$7).

 

[gvel]

I've been DVC for nearly 30 years and had no idea renting was a thing until a few years ago - or resale for that matter. I've never used either. It just never came into my field of view as I bought all my points at once and never added, or needed extras.

Worse for me are figuring out all the forum initials for everything! I have to stop and think for a few seconds sometimes when someone posts up a resort initial rather than typing it out...I see VGF, GCV, PVB, etc, it doesn't come right to mind sometimes. Then when OTHER things are initialed, I'm often lost. SAP? SAP+? GV?

 

[Cyberc1978]

I'd argue that is the dues are in the range of rental rates (which are much lower than rack rates), that's where things fall apart and resale values collapse. Why own when you can rent for less?

One would think that rental rates are correlated to increases in dues but it's also possible that, as dues increase, more owners will go the rental route and rental prices may be flat or go down down due to higher supply. Rental rates are about supply and demand - whatever the market will bear.

As debated many times before some brokers charge beyond $45 pp, I assume they do so because there is a market for that rate. On top it seems Disney/DVC don’t care.

If I could get $30-$35 I see no reason why not to rent any points I’m not using my self. However if I could only get a measly $20 i wouldn’t bother.