Dorian expected to strengthen to Cat 3 Hurricane

[OhDannyBoy]

I don't disagree about people looking at getting flight changes and the like, but the prediction of landfall location and strength is what is problematic to me. Many people are going to pick up on these threads over the next few days and many will complain that their airline or the DCL is not giving them any info or allowing changes if the storm is going to hit Orlando / Central Florida. But the airlines and DCL typically wait as long as possible to make any commitments due to the inaccuracy of tracks until closer to landfall. After living in Orlando for 25 years. I have seen the wide variety of news outlets, especially national news or stations away from central Florida predict and sesationalize the storms, and then be dissapointed when they make landfall elsewhere or not at all. The pictures of tracks that they show are misleading as most focus on the center of the track as a straight line, rather than focusing on the wide cone. The way this storm is set up, it won't likely be until Friday night or Saturday morning before it would make a western turn towards Florida (if it does at all), so this speculation just feeds the fires. I'm all for being prepared or adjusting your plans if you want to, but leave the forecasting and speculation to others.

I get where you are coming from.

Living in South Florida all my life I've been in that cone of death every year at some point.

I've posted at least 4 times today that until late tomorrow afternoon or even Friday try to predict where this thing will hit, when, and how strong is silly.

 

[wendlle]

I get where you are coming from.

Living in South Florida all my life I've been in that cone of death every year at some point.

I've posted at least 4 times today that until late tomorrow afternoon or even Friday try to predict where this thing will hit, when, and how strong is silly.

when Irma hit we were at WDW, they kept saying all the way up to a few hours before that it was going to hit Tampa. So I don't think anyone can predict anything.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

If you want to avoid inflammatory, avoid the Dorian thread on Magic

I’ll sub to this one too (the more the merrier!!!) I’m waiting for the 5pm track update before I decide if we need to proactively extend from Tuesday to Wednesday while fights and rooms are available (thank you SW no change fees!)

 

[jscunningham699]

I'm watching this storm closely because we are supposed to leave on Friday to begin our drive to the World. We were supposed to be in the parks beginning Monday...now it looks like everything is soooooo uncertain and soooooo very frustrating.

 

[jade1]

It's basically like this....

It gon hit somewhere in there for sure!!
View attachment 430379

I noticed the bold black "arrow" line goes right over EPCOT.

Seriously would like to go down there, its usually weirdly fun for us, but we visit a lot. Feel bad for the rare visitor.

 

[OhDannyBoy]

when Irma hit we were at WDW, they kept saying all the way up to a few hours before that it was going to hit Tampa. So I don't think anyone can predict anything.

Oh I know.

I sat at home watching the news basically tell me it was going to be Armageddon and everyone in south Florida will be killed if they don't evacuate!!

Then it ran over the Keys and while we did get some damage, it was no where near what they said it was going to be here.

Same thing happened in '92 with Andrew. It was going to hit Broward county dead on. It didn't. It flattened south Miami / Kendall. No one knew until literally hours before it was heading that way.

That being said we were ready like always.

 

[a1tinkfans]

In SW fla and today I saw people stocking up at the food store, ugh! I was grabbing snacks for tonight, lol
Priorities people.

Just wishing all safe travels... let’s hope the predictions ..which seem to be all over right now, are off and it decides to wither to nothing...

 

[MGMmjl]

If you want to avoid inflammatory, avoid the Dorian thread on Magic

I’ll sub to this one too (the more the merrier!!!) I’m waiting for the 5pm track update before I decide if we need to proactively extend from Tuesday to Wednesday while fights and rooms are available (thank you SW no change fees!)

Here is the 5 pm track from NHC:

​

 

[JaxDad]

Oh trust me .. it is addicting to watch these things. It feels like all we did for a week and half before Florence was watch the weather channel.

I don’t watch the Weather Channel. I don’t even get it. I just check the data and forecasts from the NWS, plus a couple online sites like Mike’s Weather Page. I’ll watch local news and weather only when it’s imminent.

 

[SaharanTea]

I guess I'm a weather nerd. I watch them until they are no longer a threat. I especially like to track the spaghetti charts to see if and how the various models converge.

A fellow spaghettimodels.com watcher?

 

[jade1]

Like to watch this wind map, esp zoomed in. Mesmerizing

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-66.65,20.63,2301

 

[wendlle]

So my question is, if it does do what they are predicting which is hit Monday, what will happen Tuesday to flights? what has happened in the past?
Our flight leaves LAX around 10am and we are arriving around 6pm on Tuesday.

 

[sweetpeama]

I am watching this storm a bit even though I don't have a trip planned and I don't live anywhere near the cost. I am watching because I have an aquatiance (Friend of a Friend) who has 3 special needs children one who survived a near drowning 6 years ago and is minimally concious and treated by a nursing team around the clock. Due to that child's need the family has been told by authorities in their area (fairly close to Tampa) that they would need to shelter in place. They lost power after Irma and it did take them a while to get their generator going which they had checked prior. I am tempted to send a message to say head to Disney and get a few rooms for everyone just in case.

 

[Toolulu22]

So my question is, if it does do what they are predicting which is hit Monday, what will happen Tuesday to flights? what has happened in the past?
Our flight leaves LAX around 10am and we are arriving around 6pm on Tuesday.

It depends on where the storm hits and how severe. I would imagine that you would get some flight notifications if the airlines were concerned over cancellations or changes due to severe weather.

 

[disneycountrygirl]

I think these types of threads are useful too. When we had our Sept 2017 trip planned, Irma hit the day we were to land. You can bet we were glued to the threads on this board in the days leading up to it. I watched many people cancel while we held tight to the last second. Then we cxld too as it became apparent the path was going to hit Orlando the day we were flying in. Airports were closing over it. Ultimately, the flight we were going to be on was cancelled. It ended being the BEST thing ever (in terms of our Disney trip only). We got to move our trip to December for the same $$ amount, kept the free dining, lost very little money rebooking our flights AND GOT TO KEEP ALL OUR FASTPASSES as well as making new ones! 6 each day!!!!!!! It was awesome. That was one of the most special Disney trips ever only rivaled by our very first one!

 

[OSUZorba]

This is my third trip in four years to be impacted by a hurricane. Flew in during Hermin in 2016 and got the last Southwest flight out of MCO before Irma. Currently working on changing our flight out from late Sunday to early Sunday. Disappointed, but I don't want to get stuck here until Tuesday or Wednesday. I figured if everything changes, I can probably move the flights back.

Really, i think it's just me. All the Disney hurricanes, I've had a couple of cruises impacted by hurricanes too. Been in Dallas and Maui for record rainfalls, Wichita for record snow. Had multiple massive wildfires break out during trips to national parks and have had multiple earthquakes. All while on travel, I guess I bring the natural disasters with me. Tornado also hit a quarter mile from my house a couple days ago while I was at Epcot.

 

[rteetz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1166904257821532167

 

[wendow]

I was at SSR in 2017 when IRMA was on the way. Was lucky to get on one of the last flights out of Orlando--as it turns out may not have been my best decision. I ran into several fellow guests some months later and was told how fantastic Disney treated them. They had so much fun and good times they forgot all about the Hurricane going on around them. Just goes to show you it is always magical at WDW.

Us too! We were on a 4:40 flight out of MCO (airport closed at 5:00) and we'd moved up our flight to get out. Then I read what a magical time everyone was having back at Disney getting tons of pixie dust

 

[wendow]

This is my third trip in four years to be impacted by a hurricane. Flew in during Hermin in 2016 and got the last Southwest flight out of MCO before Irma. Currently working on changing our flight out from late Sunday to early Sunday. Disappointed, but I don't want to get stuck here until Tuesday or Wednesday. I figured if everything changes, I can probably move the flights back.

Really, i think it's just me. All the Disney hurricanes, I've had a couple of cruises impacted by hurricanes too. Been in Dallas and Maui for record rainfalls, Wichita for record snow. Had multiple massive wildfires break out during trips to national parks and have had multiple earthquakes. All while on travel, I guess I bring the natural disasters with me. Tornado also hit a quarter mile from my house a couple days ago while I was at Epcot.

We've gone over LD and the week before or after for like forever. We were also impacted by both Hermine and Irma! We went to wdw earlier this month due to college schedules or else we'd be sitting here figuring out what to do about Dorian. We laugh it's us. All my family is in TX. We visited in 2017 and in came Harvey. We are just not so good of luck...I swear, don't invite us over for dinner.

 

[Disney Frenhines]

I was at SSR in 2017 when IRMA was on the way. Was lucky to get on one of the last flights out of Orlando--as it turns out may not have been my best decision. I ran into several fellow guests some months later and was told how fantastic Disney treated them. They had so much fun and good times they forgot all about the Hurricane going on around them. Just goes to show you it is always magical at WDW.

I was at Disney when Irma hit, Disney CMs were outstanding.