Liquidice
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2019
I think that is a bit of an overstatement. For instance in a ten year window, if Disney replaced all AP holders with more profitable “tourists” for 8 years, and then went into a recession for 2 years (and that’s pretty lengthy), they would be much better off as a business taking 8 years with higher profits, and muddling through the remaining two. If Disney can shut their gates for months on end and survive, a standard recession isn’t as big a deal as it’s made out to be
I don't know the distribution of AP guests to ticketed guests in "normal" times, but its obvious Disney is trying to limit the number of APs by not selling APs right now and using Park Pass.
But what if the mix is 8 years of 80% ticketed guests, 20% APs, and 2 years of 40% ticketed guests and 15-20% APs vs. lets say 100% ticketed guests for 8 years and 40% ticketed guests for 2 years? It depends on the profit difference, and I suppose if you're assuming ticketed guests are 10 times more profitable than APs the math works but I've never seen any numbers that actually state that.
I don't think any numbers have ever been released on how profitable an ticketed guest is vs an AP guest - I definitely agree ticketed guests are more profitable, but I've never seen your claim that for every $10 spent by a ticketed guest an AP only spends $1. Chapek's own words that 5-7 day guests are "marginally more valuable" doesn't sound like a 10:1 ratio, but I don't really know and I'm sure different APs spend different amounts.
I'm not suggesting Disney wants 100% APs or anything like that - just that I believe APs bring some amount of value to the parks, even during normal times and perhaps especially during recession time.
The purpose of the lower end tier APs having blackout dates is to bring more APs in when the parks are the least busy. Why would Disney even have these low end tiers if it wasn't helping to fill out the parks and generate some amount of profit?
If I were guessing though - I suspect Disney probably doesn't mind all APs as some certainly spend money (especially ones who aren't local) and is trying to figure out a way to keep APs or some kind of program for frequent visitors while increasing their profitability.
A few ideas I've heard thrown around before on ways they could modify the AP program to increase the profit per AP guest:
1. Make APs significantly more expensive, do not offer the cheaper tiers or restrict the cheaper tiers even further. To make up for the APs being more expensive, offer higher discounts on dining or merch. Essentially bake the profits into the price of the AP and balance it out a bit by offering larger discounts if you continue to spend money.
2. Have AP tiers that can only be used when staying at an onsite hotel. This would be good for DVC Members and non-locals which I assume are more profitable AP holders than locals.
3. Get rid of APs all together and create a more expensive ticket that doesn't expire for 1 calendar year, so for example - you buy a 14-day ticket and you can use it on any 14 days throughout the year. Think of it like an AP that has a limited number of uses. This doesn't necessarily help with the profitability, but it would allow them to spread it out to more people - and I'm betting more different people throughout the year = more spending (think, someone who hasn't experienced Space 220 and really wants to try it or someone who hasn't bought that 50th anniversary t-shirt yet).