Does WDW still want/ need local AP holders

I think that is a bit of an overstatement. For instance in a ten year window, if Disney replaced all AP holders with more profitable “tourists” for 8 years, and then went into a recession for 2 years (and that’s pretty lengthy), they would be much better off as a business taking 8 years with higher profits, and muddling through the remaining two. If Disney can shut their gates for months on end and survive, a standard recession isn’t as big a deal as it’s made out to be

I don't know the distribution of AP guests to ticketed guests in "normal" times, but its obvious Disney is trying to limit the number of APs by not selling APs right now and using Park Pass.

But what if the mix is 8 years of 80% ticketed guests, 20% APs, and 2 years of 40% ticketed guests and 15-20% APs vs. lets say 100% ticketed guests for 8 years and 40% ticketed guests for 2 years? It depends on the profit difference, and I suppose if you're assuming ticketed guests are 10 times more profitable than APs the math works but I've never seen any numbers that actually state that.

I don't think any numbers have ever been released on how profitable an ticketed guest is vs an AP guest - I definitely agree ticketed guests are more profitable, but I've never seen your claim that for every $10 spent by a ticketed guest an AP only spends $1. Chapek's own words that 5-7 day guests are "marginally more valuable" doesn't sound like a 10:1 ratio, but I don't really know and I'm sure different APs spend different amounts.

I'm not suggesting Disney wants 100% APs or anything like that - just that I believe APs bring some amount of value to the parks, even during normal times and perhaps especially during recession time.

The purpose of the lower end tier APs having blackout dates is to bring more APs in when the parks are the least busy. Why would Disney even have these low end tiers if it wasn't helping to fill out the parks and generate some amount of profit?

If I were guessing though - I suspect Disney probably doesn't mind all APs as some certainly spend money (especially ones who aren't local) and is trying to figure out a way to keep APs or some kind of program for frequent visitors while increasing their profitability.

A few ideas I've heard thrown around before on ways they could modify the AP program to increase the profit per AP guest:

1. Make APs significantly more expensive, do not offer the cheaper tiers or restrict the cheaper tiers even further. To make up for the APs being more expensive, offer higher discounts on dining or merch. Essentially bake the profits into the price of the AP and balance it out a bit by offering larger discounts if you continue to spend money.

2. Have AP tiers that can only be used when staying at an onsite hotel. This would be good for DVC Members and non-locals which I assume are more profitable AP holders than locals.

3. Get rid of APs all together and create a more expensive ticket that doesn't expire for 1 calendar year, so for example - you buy a 14-day ticket and you can use it on any 14 days throughout the year. Think of it like an AP that has a limited number of uses. This doesn't necessarily help with the profitability, but it would allow them to spread it out to more people - and I'm betting more different people throughout the year = more spending (think, someone who hasn't experienced Space 220 and really wants to try it or someone who hasn't bought that 50th anniversary t-shirt yet).
 
Yes they still us AP holders. I was there for two weeks this summer and spent alot. We spend a lot at sit down meals and signature meals. If they get rid of the AP I will take my money to Universal and eat offsite...while staying in my dvc room.
 
May be a dumb question but do locals spend a lot of money at disney? Maybe a snack or two. Do locals spent disney prices for meals that probably could be had for 1/2 the price off site?
This local also buy souvenirs and other merchandise. Meals are sometimes a counter service but other times they are table service in the more pricy restaurants.
 
I was just looking at the Sorcerer AP calendar. All dates are available for all parks for the rest of the year (Except blackouts). On the other hand, some parks are sold out for ticket holders and resort guests for some dates in August. If they didn’t want AP’s, wouldn’t it be the other way around?
This might be a reaction to the California litigation - make the reservations available to the existing passholders but don't sell new passes.
 


yes they do want/need local AP's. Its a way to fill in the dips in attendance.
Going forward that's exactly how the reservation system will probably work for AP holders. There will probably be more block out dates as well
 
Just to clarify, I Was not trying to single any individual out in this post, I am speaking in generalities, obviously each pass holder is different with different circumstances, but I believe that on a large scale AP holders, especially local one would spend less on an average than “tourist” style guests
 
Just to clarify, I Was not trying to single any individual out in this post, I am speaking in generalities, obviously each pass holder is different with different circumstances, but I believe that on a large scale AP holders, especially local one would spend less on an average than “tourist” style guests
The way I look at it I don't even think they really want out of state AP holders. There is a reason out of state AP holders only have access to the highest priced Pass. IMO they want AP holders just not as many as they have right now. Part of the delay in them coming back is trying to find a way to get that number down.
 


The way I look at it I don't even think they really want out of state AP holders. There is a reason out of state AP holders only have access to the highest priced Pass. IMO they want AP holders just not as many as they have right now. Part of the delay in them coming back is trying to find a way to get that number down.
I agree, but i think Disney may be taking a gradual approach to AP holders, i don't think that they will ever fully drop the program, but they may be tooling it to a specific demographic who is willing to spend more
 
This local also buy souvenirs and other merchandise. Meals are sometimes a counter service but other times they are table service in the more pricy restaurants.
and sometimes they come hang out at the parks, and takeoff prior to having to purchase a meal. They just aren't as trapped in the "bubble" as "tourists" are.
 
I don't know the distribution of AP guests to ticketed guests in "normal" times, but its obvious Disney is trying to limit the number of APs by not selling APs right now and using Park Pass.

But what if the mix is 8 years of 80% ticketed guests, 20% APs, and 2 years of 40% ticketed guests and 15-20% APs vs. lets say 100% ticketed guests for 8 years and 40% ticketed guests for 2 years? It depends on the profit difference, and I suppose if you're assuming ticketed guests are 10 times more profitable than APs the math works but I've never seen any numbers that actually state that.

I don't think any numbers have ever been released on how profitable an ticketed guest is vs an AP guest - I definitely agree ticketed guests are more profitable, but I've never seen your claim that for every $10 spent by a ticketed guest an AP only spends $1. Chapek's own words that 5-7 day guests are "marginally more valuable" doesn't sound like a 10:1 ratio, but I don't really know and I'm sure different APs spend different amounts.

I'm not suggesting Disney wants 100% APs or anything like that - just that I believe APs bring some amount of value to the parks, even during normal times and perhaps especially during recession time.

The purpose of the lower end tier APs having blackout dates is to bring more APs in when the parks are the least busy. Why would Disney even have these low end tiers if it wasn't helping to fill out the parks and generate some amount of profit?

If I were guessing though - I suspect Disney probably doesn't mind all APs as some certainly spend money (especially ones who aren't local) and is trying to figure out a way to keep APs or some kind of program for frequent visitors while increasing their profitability.

A few ideas I've heard thrown around before on ways they could modify the AP program to increase the profit per AP guest:

1. Make APs significantly more expensive, do not offer the cheaper tiers or restrict the cheaper tiers even further. To make up for the APs being more expensive, offer higher discounts on dining or merch. Essentially bake the profits into the price of the AP and balance it out a bit by offering larger discounts if you continue to spend money.

2. Have AP tiers that can only be used when staying at an onsite hotel. This would be good for DVC Members and non-locals which I assume are more profitable AP holders than locals.

3. Get rid of APs all together and create a more expensive ticket that doesn't expire for 1 calendar year, so for example - you buy a 14-day ticket and you can use it on any 14 days throughout the year. Think of it like an AP that has a limited number of uses. This doesn't necessarily help with the profitability, but it would allow them to spread it out to more people - and I'm betting more different people throughout the year = more spending (think, someone who hasn't experienced Space 220 and really wants to try it or someone who hasn't bought that 50th anniversary t-shirt yet).
This is what I've been angling at, personally i think that Disney is giving AP's a slow death, by changing the program year after year, and making it less attainable. I think they're purposely doing it slowly to avoid a PR nightmare, it would be easier to chip away and deal with the small backlashes for any given change, rather than taking a huge beating for changing it all together, or stopping the program all at once. I do think that the parks have matured to a point where they probably don't need AP's to subsidize slow periods and are working their way further and further away from the old way of doing things
 
I don't think any numbers have ever been released on how profitable an ticketed guest is vs an AP guest - I definitely agree ticketed guests are more profitable, but I've never seen your claim that for every $10 spent by a ticketed guest an AP only spends $1. Chapek's own words that 5-7 day guests are "marginally more valuable" doesn't sound like a 10:1 ratio, but I don't really know and I'm sure different APs spend different amounts.
I think there is a nuance to his comment, he was directly comparing a guest that stays on property for 5-7 days to an AP holder that stays on property for 2-3 days.
On a "per day" comparison in that case the spending probably is marginal, but he isn't directly speaking to AP holders who just go to the park to hang out, and i'm sure the AP holders who purchase all of the WDW exclusive merch to resell online are propping those numbers up in this case. I just wouldn't read into that comment very much
 
The reality is we are already in a recession. As it deepens and money becomes more and more tight, Disney will need those AP's to tide them over until the economy recovers. The law suite is a big concern--I am wondering why Disney has not made some kind of settlement. I have not followed it closely so maybe someone who has can give a updated as to how it got to this point and why Disney does not want to settle.
 
The reality is we are already in a recession. As it deepens and money becomes more and more tight, Disney will need those AP's to tide them over until the economy recovers. The law suite is a big concern--I am wondering why Disney has not made some kind of settlement. I have not followed it closely so maybe someone who has can give a updated as to how it got to this point and why Disney does not want to settle.
My guess is if they settle it basically says there were in the wrong. They would have to change their reservation system.
 
The reality is we are already in a recession. As it deepens and money becomes more and more tight, Disney will need those AP's to tide them over until the economy recovers. The law suite is a big concern--I am wondering why Disney has not made some kind of settlement. I have not followed it closely so maybe someone who has can give a updated as to how it got to this point and why Disney does not want to settle.

I don't believe that's how Disney operates. When times are tough, they will tolerate the annual pass holders (me). But who they really want is the cash rich day ticket guests.
 
The reality is we are already in a recession. As it deepens and money becomes more and more tight, Disney will need those AP's to tide them over until the economy recovers. The law suite is a big concern--I am wondering why Disney has not made some kind of settlement. I have not followed it closely so maybe someone who has can give a updated as to how it got to this point and why Disney does not want to settle.
I've said this previously, but I don't think Disney banks on AP holders keeping their heads above water during lean times. All companies plan for recessions, and i doubt Disney plans on AP holders saving the day, it's too specific a variable to control. Also if Disney could handle closing most of their parks for months, they can handle a standard recession. They are more apt to charge more and go lean, over anything else, as most business do
 
I believe that on a large scale AP holders, especially local one would spend less on an average than “tourist” style guests

and sometimes they come hang out at the parks, and takeoff prior to having to purchase a meal. They just aren't as trapped in the "bubble" as "tourists" are.
Good points. I wonder if Disney looks at AP purchases (food & merchandise) over the full year when comparing to a "tourist" week-long visit.
 
Another reason that just came to mind as to why Disney wouldn't be in Love with AP holders is that they constantly game the system to milk it for everything its worth. In the process gumming up the system for the average guest, just looks at all the changes they've made to prevent people from gaming their system in the last 2 years. This doesn't only apply to AP holders of course, there are a lot of hardos on these boards who do the same, (myself included) but i would imagine people who visit the parks most frequently would be the biggest abusers
 
MOST Florida AP holders are likely not LOCAL so that alone tosses much of the "no money is spent" out of the argument.
Local enough to typically be able to drive 5 hours and spend a weekend at a Holiday Inn
Except that Disney does not publish any of this information so this is simply guessing on anyone's part how much AP spend, and what Disney thinks about it. There is no argument for this.
You are correct, i thought i had seen an article at one point, but i believe it was just conjecture on the boards that i was reading. That being said, I'd be willing to bet that there is a significant difference
Perhaps Disney doesn't have a down season because FL AP fill in the foundation and "tourists" build on top of that.
Now i know i've seen that 70% of guests are either 1st time or long time visitors, and i doubt the other 30% would only be made up of AP Holders.
First off everyone keeps saying "LOCALS" as if every FL AP holder lives down the street from the parks. MOST Disney AP holders likely live where they have to book hotels, dining ADRs etc. I know of many who book a weekend at Disney every month. I have been booking 4-6 weeks every year.
I cannot speak for every AP holder, but i would think a lot would take advantage of off site ameneties/hotels, because otherwise there is a pretty significant price increase to be in the parks, and i assume that most AP holders aren't that wealthy to be able to afford that multiple times a year
And yes, because we do not have to lay money down to enter a park (easy to ignore what we paid for AP) we book dining, we paid stupid money for specialty drinks, we book special events like fireworks packages, etc. I've even bought After Hours several times even though I have AP.
Again, i am speaking more in generalities then to you personally, i doubt many people would follow what you do just my opinion
And if they really wanted a work around, they could just make the price of it so high no one buys it.
Disney seems to be doing that currently, it may change in the future, but based on today
 
As stated, there are many types of locals and AP holders...so this only explains my own modus. I'm a relatively local (2 1/2 drive), an annual passholder since they became available, and DVC member. I travel to Disney World on average 4-5 trips a year, 4-5 days per trip...so typically spend 16-20 days a year there. Some years I may visit more, but never less. I do not spend any time off site - 100% of my time is on WDW property - so all my spending stays on site. When calculating the average spending per year for Disney, you'd have to add my annual DVC dues and AP renewal costs, food & alcohol, and occasional gifts. With the AP and DVC, I'm already at $2K a year. I usually do quick service lunches, various snacks and drinks in the afternoon, alcohol and table service dinners almost exclusively. I'll generally run at least $100 per day per person...often more, as I do enjoy signature dining and enjoying the bars in the evenings. Conservatively that's around $1600-2000 on a per person basis per year. I usually valet - that's $25 per day plus tips for each day up there. Christmas gifts for relatives, oddball purchases on occasion like a hat or t--shirt every trip or two. Of course not to mention the initial buy-in for DVC, which was a nice lump sum chunk back in 1996. I'm sitting around $5K a year average spending for one person.

Compare that to an out-of-stater purchasing the individual tickets, hotel for 5 nights, mostly quick-serve or family table service, some snacks, etc. A family of 4 is estimated at $6K for a 5 night stay - but that includes flights and transportation to and from the parks, so that doesn't all go to Disney. That's around $1500 per person per year...or around $1000-1200 at Disney. Throw in another $300 per person for variables, and they're still spending a lot less than I am in a given year as a local with an AP.

If I didn't have an AP, I'd likely go less often to Disney, and would likely spend less in the parks. Even with the crazy inflation prices of the Florida AP, that plus DVC's cost still works out to enough of a bargain to encourage me to spend more to enjoy the trip in style. So I figure Disney would probably want to keep my business if they knew all of the above. You'd probably have to balance out the locals who spend as little as possible and use the AP as a method to get a cheap trip against locals like myself who use the AP to allow more spending in the parks, and travel there much more often each year.
 
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