Does mitigation work?

[cdh]

I’ve been doing my best to follow the covid guidelines since day one but I’m so tired and frustrated by conflicting information. I tend to believe what the health officials tell us but sometimes the guidelines don‘t make sense. If wearing masks, staying socially distant from others who don’t live in your household, and washing your hands are effective then why can’t we just do those things and live our lives? That’s an honest question....I’m not trying to be sarcastic or to make some kind of a point. I truly wonder, if I wash my hands, wear two masks, and keep my distance from others then why can’t I go to the mall? Why is it safe for kids to be in a classroom “bubble” with others from outside their homes but unsafe in the Disney “bubble”?

I tend to believe that the people who either refuse to follow the guidelines or halfway follow the guidelines are responsible for some of the spread. However, I know a lot of people who are essentially living their normal lives while wearing a mask and they aren’t getting covid. This is really affecting my mental health because I have a daughter who hasn’t seen a friend in person since this pandemic began. On one hand I’m protecting her health and on the other hand the social implications of isolation are huge. I look at Facebook and see pictures of friends with their children at places like Build a Bear and Pizza Hut with friends. They seem so happy and carefree and it makes me wonder if I’m doing the right thing by keeping my daughter home. Then, yesterday I saw a article about a nine year old with covid who went to bed one night and never woke up. Stories like those make Build a Bear seem a lot less appealing.

I’m a rule follower by nature and if someone would come out and say “live your life normally but always wear a mask” then I would be fine. However, that isn‘t the message. Does anyone have some insight? My family won’t be vaccinated for months and I’m not sure how to deal with the lifestyle that much longer......especially when I watch most other people living a relatively normal life. If we were all pulling the rope together then I think I could keep it up but as each day passes fewer and fewer people are pulling.

 

[smwisc]

It is so hard, and you're right that as more people seem to just return to "normal" it gets harder.

One reason there isn't a simple answer as to what is safe is that every precaution decreases risk, but none eliminate it. I've seen this referred to as the "swiss cheese" model, where we layer precautions like masks, staying outdoors, distancing in order to account for the fact that none of those are 100%. So for your mask question, we know masks help, a lot. But being indoors for longer periods of time, even masked, is still risky.

And then everyone to make decisions, people need to balance the community level of risk, their own personal level of risk, the risk of the activity in question, the benefit of the activity, and what mitigation strategies are possible and how effective they are. The lack of clear guidance at various levels hasn't helped, to be sure, but there's no way to have totally black and white guidelines. That isn't to say it should just be a free for all - there's no doubt this pandemic has been made worse by the fact that, in the aggregate, too many people are not taking sufficient precautions.

With schools, part of the calculation is also the costs of not having them open. So it's about risk of COVID, yes, but also about the cost to kids and families of schools being closed. Comparing schools to vacations is kind of missing that broader context. Really, really tough decisions, with no easy answers. Many of the experts I've read have argued that schools be the last place to close and the first to open, and that our mitigation efforts (improved ventilation, PPE, etc.) should be focused there (after health care facilities of course) - but sadly that's not where our priorities as a society lie.