Does DVC regret Poly?

[OKW Lover]

Any Disney division whose profits fall significantly out of line with other division historically has had a leadership change very quickly. With Poly sales far below hat anyone though and Hawaii sales relatively slow and a much lower net margin, if sales do not pick up significantly that is exactly where DVD is going to find themselves. Basic big business practices, perform or go

Yes, I'd agree with much of this. The part I was wondering about is how we know

based on the configuration and construction cost containment impact on the popularity of Poly DVC. I think they way overestimated that any "Poly" would sell like hot cakes.

I don't believe DVC ever made public any estimation of construction costs in any configuration, be it an initial concept or a changed concept. And even that assumes that the original concept was vastly different. Yes, there's lots of speculation and third-hand rumor about what was supposed to be there. Various blue-sky concepts are nice but what was the actual original proposal that subsequently got changed to what was built? How do we know that?

Assuming we do know all of that, do we also know DVD's sales projections for the original concept and for the revised plan? Or are we all just speculating that the Poly isn't selling as well as we expected?

 

[mort1331]

The truth is we simply don't know what they were thinking or planning. I'm not sure it was a mistake but I do believe they left potential on the table. They sold SSR, they can sell it. I know I could sell it if in a position to do so.

Hey we love SSR,,,and all the others,,,keep smiling

 

[Dean]

Hey we love SSR,,,and all the others,,,keep smiling

It's not a question of liking the resort (we do as well) but rather the realities of the resort as it fits into the overall structure of DVC and the realities of sales for such a number of points in a more moderate location. It's clear that a MUCH larger % of even retail owners bought to get into the system, not specifically to stay at SSR.

 

[bookwormde]

Yes, I'd agree with much of this. The part I was wondering about is how we know

I don't believe DVC ever made public any estimation of construction costs in any configuration, be it an initial concept or a changed concept. And even that assumes that the original concept was vastly different. Yes, there's lots of speculation and third-hand rumor about what was supposed to be there. Various blue-sky concepts are nice but what was the actual original proposal that subsequently got changed to what was built? How do we know that?

Assuming we do know all of that, do we also know DVD's sales projections for the original concept and for the revised plan? Or are we all just speculating that the Poly isn't selling as well as we expected?

I am an construction estimator/value engineer, so it comes from looking a the new and previous configuration of the rooms and amenities from pictures that were included as well as the site improvements for the Studios. the 1-3/4 bath configuration adds a little but not like if they had some 1 and 2 bedrooms or even studios with an kitchen. Add to that very little "fancy" dedicated DVC public space and it was done on the cheep with the exception of a few items and even those do not add much. Now the Bungalows are another story, but not many have the $ to actually purchase point to stay there regularly.

 

[dizfan]

I am an construction estimator/value engineer, so it comes from looking a the new and previous configuration of the rooms and amenities from pictures that were included as well as the site improvements for the Studios. the 1-3/4 bath configuration adds a little but not like if they had some 1 and 2 bedrooms or even studios with an kitchen. Add to that very little "fancy" dedicated DVC public space and it was done on the cheep with the exception of a few items and even those do not add much. Now the Bungalows are another story, but not many have the $ to actually purchase point to stay there regularly.

I believe the only unique things for DVC at PVB are the laundry room and the bungalow board walk area. Based on a few posts, even the grilling area built for PVB, is now being treated as available for anyone staying at the Polynesian (even hotel guests). They certainly did very, very little for PVB.

PVB may have received the least of any WDW combo resort for DVC members. Highest initial price and very high dues, but basically nothing unique for DVC. Even if they expand down in the future, rumors indicate it would be the opposite side of Poly so the 4 million points sold would have bad access. In fact, VGF may have easier access to this area.

I don't believe DVD regrets building at PVB. I do believe they could be selling 125K-150K points per month even at these prices if they made different decisions.

 

[dizfan]

Interesting stat based on county deeds.

VGF reached master contract 13004000 on either 2/14/14 or 2/15/14, based on earliest execution date for 13004xxx.000. I believe sales started 5/23/13. I believe this means VGF sales required 267 days to have 4000 contracts for new members and contracts for a new UY for existing members.

PVB reached master contract 14004000 on 9/11/15, based on earliest execution date for 14004xxx.000. I believe sales started 1/12/15. If I did my math correctly, this is 242 days to reach 4000 master contracts drawn up.

Contracts drawn up, do not necessarily mean people signed them. However, it does indicate there has been more interest in PVB than people realize. The lack of 1BRs and 2BRs likely result in smaller contracts and kept many existing owners from adding on. These new PVB buyers may be likely add-ons in the future at resorts with 1BRs and 2BRs, or they may be future add-ons at PVB if the rumored expansion does happen.

Perhaps, DVD's plan has been to get more new buyers into the system?