Hmmm...that is not what I read in several reports. In fact, over the past several years, there have been times where occupancy rates were actually higher than expected, if I'm not mistaken. Like I said, Disney's occupancy rates are still higher than almost all other Orlando hotels (I have that report bookmarked somewhere in my computer), but still not as high as they would like, but for low seasons, the numbers are higher than they ever were. Last report I read, had mid-high 80s for occupancy, and when compared to other Orlando resorts, the report said that was pretty good. I think it was an Orlando Sentinel report, but not sure?
Free dining was created to fill rooms, so whether it's because of a soft economy or low season, I don't think that really matters, as it's filling rooms. Remember, those rooms were empty before during a great ecomony, as certain times of the year, like September or early January, used to be traditionally very slow periods for Disney as kids are back in school.
There is virtually no dead time at WDW anymore, and there used to be. Even when the ecomony was doing very well, certain times of the year, were not busy as kids were in school and parents were busy with work. There was no incentive to pull kids out of school, but now with Free Dining, there is. Now, due to Free Dining, you see families pulling kids out of school to go during slow periods, and this is exactly what its purpose was. The Free Dining promo has been huge in filling the parks and resorts during dead times. Perhaps you mistook me in meaning 100% occupancy in reference to filling the parks - you are correct that occupancy rates are not 100%, but since Free Dining, they are way better than before. I know that parks aren't 100% full, but they are filled up way more than they were before. Plus, make no mistake about how busy the restaurants are during these times, when before, they were not.
So, occupancy rates may not be where Disney wants them to be, but last report I read, it said Disney was hoping for high 90% occupancy rates, but that is way ambitious, since like you said, the hotel and rental housing market in Orlando is saturated. There are more off-site choices now than ever before, and that is definitely affecting Disney's occupancy rates, so I will agree with you there.
The bottom line is that Free Dining has packed the parks and resorts with more guests than Disney has been used to in awhile, and at the same time, they have lowered their workforce. So, the CMs who are there, are left to do double and triple duty, and you and I both know, that the parks and resorts are bearing the brunt of this.
One other thing that has added to the parks being full, is the hugeness that is becoming DVC. More families are DVC members now, than ever before in WDW history, and again, they are taking their toll on the parks and resorts too. So, you add in Free Dining promo, and lots more DVC guests, you have the parks being trampled upon.
Great discussion! Tiger