Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[EmJ]

Hey, @EmJ -- very good to see you posting here! Hope all is going well with you and your family. Pixie dust and fingers crossed that a DLR trip in 2022 comes to fruition and is as magical as it should be!

Hey there! It is going to be epic, lol. We’ve waited so long and without doing any major trips for two years, we will have a bit more disposable funds. We’re now thinking June, so warm enough to swim, and a full-vacation stay at DLH!

 

[disneychrista]

What CA has done has NOT worked, and I fully believe it is because the governor was TOO strict.

I feel the opposite. What California has done has not worked because it wasn't strict enough. I think we opened too much too quickly in June and once we did that it was game over. None of the restrictions matter anymore, too few are actually following the rules anymore. This is of course just my opinion.

 

[MouseOfCards]

Our Jan 3-7 VGC reservation has been cancelled by Disney. Our Jan 7-10 reservation is still there, but we expect that to be cancelled soon, too.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Reminder to everyone participating in this thread: Please keep your posts on topic. This is not the place to debate or to argue about COVID, public health policy, or politics. Take those discussions to the main Community Board. Off topic posts here will be deleted. For those who answered the previous poster's question about the current situation in CA and DLR's closure and kept the thread on topic and within the guidelines, good job!
Now let's get this show back on the road!

 

[montreid]

Just canceled our remaining Jan and Feb VGC reservations and moved them to an April WDW trip.

The last surge took over 2 months to lower enough to allow a partial Buena Vista Street opening and we ALMOST got to VGCs reopening -- so close!

With this recent surge not even peaking yet, the likelihood of Orange County dropping back into the red zone and flirt with orange level is low before March.

Today's rate is 42.7 -- we need to get that between 4-7 sustained for Red Tier.

 

[dina444444]

Just canceled our remaining Jan and Feb VGC reservations and moved them to an April WDW trip.

The last surge took over 2 months to lower enough to allow a partial Buena Vista Street opening and we ALMOST got to VGCs reopening -- so close!

With this recent surge not even peaking yet, the likelihood of Orange County dropping back into the red zone and flirt with orange level is low before March.

Today's rate is 42.7 -- we need to get that between 4-7 sustained for Red Tier.

I think the bell curve is going to fall fast once vaccine distribution continues to ramp up.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Hey there! It is going to be epic, lol. We’ve waited so long and without doing any major trips for two years, we will have a bit more disposable funds. We’re now thinking June, so warm enough to swim, and a full-vacation stay at DLH!

This thread will help you: "Detailed Weather Data for DLR" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=23004158. June comes with June Gloom -- cooler, overcast mornings (great for getting a lot done in the parks) and warmer afternoons. So not exactly beach weather (many people find it too cold still), but nice for doing lots of activities and not overheating. Evenings can still be cool. Don't forget about Grad Nites -- those should be back on the schedule for early to mid June 2022. DLH sounds great (and will spoil you for future visits)!

 

[montreid]

I think the bell curve is going to fall fast once vaccine distribution continues to ramp up.

Agreed - June will be a very different situation if all goes well and ready to shake down operations for a full July 4th opening -- wouldn't that be a sight for sore eyes. -- VGC already booked for that weekend.

<16 yo Kids probably still won't be vaccinated until end of summer/fall - but the vast majority of at risk folk can be done by June if ramp-up goes as planned -- so CM and parents will be immensely safer even if current rules remain in place (probably for balance of 2021).

 

[KPeterso]

I keep up with this thread because my best friend lives out in Pasadena and I've been trying to plan a trip to see her when all of this is over with a trip to DLR of course. I'm just curious about how those of you living in California feel about [mod edit] the lock downs and not reopening safely like Orlando did? What is the general consensus out there? Do you think it's over the top or justified? Does it seem that most people are complying with ... stay at home orders? That's an awful lot of people to try and corral so I wondered if it was next to impossible to get people to comply or if people were genuinely fearful and staying home for this amount of time?
I'm very sad for the people that work in the parks and all of the businesses around there. I don't know how they are going to survive. It was bad enough on businesses here on the East coast being closed for a couple of months, but I can't even wrap my mind around half the year!

I am ok with the continued closure and keeping things pretty tightly closed. I have a lot of elderly relatives (80+) so being extra careful. I have a couple of friends who have lost elderly relatives to Covid so I may be a bit more sensitive about watching out for the elderly. And a few friends who have had it. I have not seen anyone outside my parents since July. And saw aunt, uncle, and cousin (plus his wife and her father) on July 4th. My parents and I were very uncomfortable as it was 8 and could only spread out so much. Before that, I had seen no one from the family since February. I hate that we cancelled Thanksgiving & Christmas with the family, but we are finding ways to connect. Family grab bag Zoom call last night was a lot of fun.

I was supposed to go to WDW in September, but cancelled. It just did not feel right to go then. And I did not want to take my 80+ year old Mom who normally goes with me in September. I am booked for March and kind of on the fence about it still. Still not feeling right about it. But that would be solo, so I am more ok about that. Just not sure if my friends who are in their 60s will be wanting to go and meet up. I am hopeful the vaccine will be fairly widely spread by summer allowing Disney to open for the summer.

 

[EmJ]

This thread will help you: "Detailed Weather Data for DLR" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=23004158. June comes with June Gloom -- cooler, overcast mornings (great for getting a lot done in the parks) and warmer afternoons. So not exactly beach weather (many people find it too cold still), but nice for doing lots of activities and not overheating. Evenings can still be cool. Don't forget about Grad Nites -- those should be back on the schedule for early to mid June 2022. DLH sounds great (and will spoil you for future visits)!

Thanks! Maybe we will look toward the end of June to avoid grad nights and potentially catch some warmer weather. We are definitely not beach people. Well, I could be a beach people, but DH is not and the boy won't let his feet touch sand. Literally will not touch it and will only walk on sand if he is wearing sneakers. So... it's good we're in a land-locked state I guess, lol. He does like to swim in pools though, so I'll check out the thread and make sure we plan for a time we can expect to use those monorail slides!

 

[taaren]

I have had cancelled 5 trips so far at the VGC, my February one will almost definitely join the count, and possibly my April one too! I miss the Land desperately and have not enjoyed playing the rebooking game over the last year. That being said I agree with it being closed now, and in general think that most of the restrictions placed on Californians were a good idea since they were recommended by epidemiologists ... they would have been better if Californians had followed them past those initial shutdown weeks. My commute went from 17 minutes to 12 during the shutdown in March/April and the day it was over it went back to 17, never to decrease again. (I'm in between SF/Sac/Napa areas, it is a big commuter corridor to all of those areas.)

If I had been in charge of California/had a sorcerer's hat to make magical things happen, Disneyland would have opened in September and closed with this shutdown in December. The numbers were there, the OC was in Orange, I went to DtD for Labor Day and it ran so smoothly even with the crowds that was the least crowded I've felt DLR in awhile (the last several years my family/travelling party has been resigned to weekends/school breaks given our teens can't take much time away from their lasses, I really miss being able to travel to DL mid-week/non-holiday!).

Given that people have reported coming back from WDW positive here on this DIS, it is spreading at the parks and would happen here if DLR were open when the positivity rate was too high.

 

[disneychrista]

Disneyland would have opened in September and closed with this shutdown in December. The numbers were there, the OC was in Orange,

Did OC hit orange? I thought it never made it out of red?

 

[dina444444]

Did OC hit orange? I thought it never made it out of red?

It did not. It got close but didn’t make it.

 

[montreid]

It did not. It got close but didn’t make it.

It did hit orange numbers, but did not sustain it for the 2weeks needed to get into the tier before the whole place went into our current surge.

 

[Snap Crackle Pop]

If I had been in charge of California/had a sorcerer's hat to make magical things happen, Disneyland would have opened in September and closed with this shutdown in December. The numbers were there, the OC was in Orange, I went to DtD for Labor Day and it ran so smoothly even with the crowds that was the least crowded I've felt DLR in awhile (the last several years my family/travelling party has been resigned to weekends/school breaks given our teens can't take much time away from their lasses, I really miss being able to travel to DL mid-week/non-holiday!).

Given that people have reported coming back from WDW positive here on this DIS, it is spreading at the parks and would happen here if DLR were open when the positivity rate was too high.

I think it would have been much worse if it were open in September to close again in December (it would be worse for the workers and for the customers), also October is the 2nd busiest month for Disneyland and while they would have made attendance to be 25% I could imagine it would cause a major headache for everyone tbh. I think our numbers would have been worse had it been open for a couple months.

We were never in the orange tier, we've only been in the red with almost getting into orange.

 

[taaren]

It did hit orange numbers, but did not sustain it for the 2weeks needed to get into the tier before the whole place went into our current surge.

Okay, that was what I remembered in those heady days of "Will it open?"

 

[disneychrista]

Okay, that was what I remembered in those heady days of "Will it open?"

I remember a lot of talk of it should be allowed to open in Orange similar to the indoor family fun centers. But by the time yellow was announced OC was already heading back to Purple.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Some holiday help for CMs:

https://**************.net/2020/12/disneyland-food-bank-rwb1/

 

[Winnowill]

A month ago, the transmission rate in Maricopa County (which is where I get the update numbers from) was 1.27. Yesterday, it was 1.03, and the last three days have seen a shift from "active cases are rapidly increasing" to "active cases are spreading, but slowly." So that's going down here in a significant way. Back in the summer, I think we got as low as 0.79, around the same time OC was hitting the orange numbers. So, hopefully, the transmission trend in similar there.

 

[midnight star]

A month ago, the transmission rate in Maricopa County (which is where I get the update numbers from) was 1.27. Yesterday, it was 1.03, and the last three days have seen a shift from "active cases are rapidly increasing" to "active cases are spreading, but slowly." So that's going down here in a significant way. Back in the summer, I think we got as low as 0.79, around the same time OC was hitting the orange numbers. So, hopefully, the transmission trend in similar there.

I read that for California the cases are beginning to plateau...but we still have to get through Christmas and New Years.