Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[midnight star]

DLgal - Where do the numbers need to be to be removed from the watch list? Seems like we are getting closer...

I believe it's less than 8% positivity rate AND less than 100/100,000 case rate for 3 days (or is it 14?).

So orange county meets the positivity metric but not the case rate. San Diego was just removed today. LA is slowing making it's way down. LA also meets the positivity rate metric but not the case rate. So hopefully this is the turning point for Socal.

 

[bgswan]

Got it! Hopefully will get under the 100/100,000 capita by the end of the week...and then we see what happens

 

[dina444444]

I believe it's less than 8% positivity rate AND less than 100/100,000 case rate for 3 days (or is it 14?).

So orange county meets the positivity metric but not the case rate. San Diego was just removed today. LA is slowing making it's way down. LA also meets the positivity rate metric but not the case rate. So hopefully this is the turning point for Socal.

LA currently meets 5 of the 6 metrics. The only one not being met is the case rate per 100,000.

 

[DLgal]

I believe it's less than 8% positivity rate AND less than 100/100,000 case rate for 3 days (or is it 14?).

So orange county meets the positivity metric but not the case rate. San Diego was just removed today. LA is slowing making it's way down. LA also meets the positivity rate metric but not the case rate. So hopefully this is the turning point for Socal.

You don't need both. The one that matters is under 100/100,000 case rate. The positivity percentage only matters when it's over 8% IN CONJUNCTION WITH a case rate over 25/100,000.

So, a county can have a case rate of 20/100,000 and a positivity percentage of higher than 8% and still get off the watch list. This is to account for more rural or less populated counties.

If we get under 100 at this point we should be good, as the case positivity rate has been trending down steadily. It shouldn't shoot back up unless there is a major outbreak.

 

[DLgal]

The key factor that Orange County is missing: <100 per 100,000 for three consecutive days --- to get off the watch list. THEN, who knows where the next steps are for theme parks. The known next step is 14 days before SCHOOLs can consider reopening for inperson -- and folk have using that as a litmus test for theme parks --- but that's just a wild guess.

San Diego just got removed from the watch list at Day 5 under the 100 mark; so the state is taking its time on removal. Hopefully they will have SOME guidance for theme parks upcoming.

Movement on or off the list was halted while they got the numbers allocated properly. Had that not happened, SD would have come off the list 2 days ago.

 

[midnight star]

Saw this article in regards to how passes could potentially work once DL reopens. This is what I am most curious about.

https://**************.net/2020/08/...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[DLgal]

Saw this article in regards to how passes could potentially work once DL reopens. This is what I am most curious about.

https://**************.net/2020/08/...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I read this earlier and just rolled my eyes. People really don't seem to understand the purpose of Change.org petitions.

Anyway, nothing in that article comes from a reliable source. It's just a bunch of wishful thinking.

I'm sure there is a team dedicated to figuring out how to handle the AP situation, but at this point I don't expect to see anything significantly different that what they did for WDW APs. The public outcry if DL pass holders are treated better or worse would be terrible PR, and Disney doesn't need any of that right now.

 

[midnight star]

I read this earlier and just rolled my eyes. Prople really don't seem to understand the purpose of Change.org petitions.

Anyway, nothing in that article comes from a reliable source. It's just a bunch of wishful thinking.

I'm sure there is a team dedicated to figuring out how to handle the AP situation, but at this point I don't expect to see anything significantly different that what they did for WDW APs. The public outcry if DL pass holders are treated better or worse would be terrible PR, and Disney doesn't need any of that right now.

I know it’s all wishful thinking. It’s just driving me nuts that we still don’t know lol wish we had an insider or something lol

 

[WonkaKid]

I know it’s all wishful thinking. It’s just driving me nuts that we still don’t know lol wish we had an insider or something lol

Me toooooo!! ;-).

 

[Epicnemesis]

Prediction: Disneyland will be open before October 1st.
Bolder Prediction: A date will be announced in August, that date will be around the middle of September.
Boldest Prediction: Covid numbers in the state and on a city by city basis will not spike much from this point forward and will gradually decline throughout the rest of the year.

 

[disneychrista]

Prediction: Disneyland will be open before October 1st.
Bolder Prediction: A date will be announced in August, that date will be around the middle of September.
Boldest Prediction: Covid numbers in the state and on a city by city basis will not spike much from this point forward and will gradually decline throughout the rest of the year.

That is a very bold and optimistic outlook. Wish I had some of your optimism.

 

[wingednike]

I think (hope) Disney will at least do small events by November for the holiday season. Even if rides aren't available, I think people would gladly take the opportunity to walk around a decorated Disney park

 

[cruisehopeful]

We were going to see a concert at the Garden Grove Amphitheater and then hit up DL.

Not going to happen. My brother's business is setting up/tearing down concerts. There is ZERO work for anyone in that business in southern California. There haven't even been smaller socially distanced events anywhere. I can't imagine why your event hasn't been canceled. I just looked and it looks like they are still selling tickets for events in September. I don't understand why they are doing that. I actually wouldn't even trust them with my money after seeing that.

 

[ycsteves]

Prediction: Disneyland will be open before October 1st.
Bolder Prediction: A date will be announced in August, that date will be around the middle of September.
Boldest Prediction: Covid numbers in the state and on a city by city basis will not spike much from this point forward and will gradually decline throughout the rest of the year.

Loved this!!!! It made my day!!!! I’ve resigned to the fact that they will ambush us with the reopening plans. They are (seemingly) choosing not to be transparent in any way shape or form, and I don’t think they see the point in reminding us every month/week that there are no guidelines yet. The announcement can come any day. One of these days I will wake up to the news of the reopening schedule, and that thought alone adds some element of surprise to these redundant days, so I’m still a happy camper!

 

[ycsteves]

I also ordered custom Disney ears for the reopening and they didn’t arrive until
Yesterday, so I’m not entirely upset that they haven’t opened yet because I wanted to wear my new ears Plus I was blocked out of DL up until Monday, so I’d be lying if I said the postponed opening wasn’t a blessing in disguise for me lol.

 

[DLgal]

Prediction: Disneyland will be open before October 1st.
Bolder Prediction: A date will be announced in August, that date will be around the middle of September.
Boldest Prediction: Covid numbers in the state and on a city by city basis will not spike much from this point forward and will gradually decline throughout the rest of the year.

I like your optimism, but don't count on the first 2. I'm with you on your "boldest prediction", but think it is more likely than the other 2.

OC county health officer said yesterday that when we come off the watchlist, the STATE will still have to approve sector by sector reopening and that the plans will be developed in conjunction with the county health officers. He also said he does NOT think any new business reopening should happen before schools resume and that we need to see how that goes for "a few weeks" before reopening things like bars and restaurants, to make sure there is no major increase in cases from schools being opened. They don't want the hospitals to become flooded again and not know what contributed to the new cases. So, remembering that schools cannot even RESUME until we have been off the watchlist for 14 days, we are talking likely 1-2 months from coming off the watchlist to simply reopening dine in restaurants and places like malls, movie theaters, salons, etc. THEN, if all goes well and cases still haven't spiked, maybe a month later, theme parks will get the green light, so most likely timeline for DL appears to be November 1 or later, and that is assuming we get off the watchlist within the next week.

Someone reported (here or elsewhere on social media), incidentally, that Disneyland management is currently targeting for a November reopening.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

The announcement can come any day. One of these days I will wake up to the news of the reopening schedule, and that thought alone adds some element of surprise to these redundant days

This. It’s going to come out of nowhere and surprise us. And that will be such a fun day. I love watching the boards get more active when we get real news.

 

[disneychrista]

I like your optimism, but don't count on the first 2. I'm with you on your "boldest prediction", but think it is more likely than the other 2.

OC county health officer said yesterday that when we come off the watchlist, the STATE will still have to approve sector by sector reopening and that the plans will be developed in conjunction with the county health officers. He also said he does NOT think any new business reopening should happen before schools resume and that we need to see how that goes for "a few weeks" before reopening things like bars and restaurants, to make sure there is no major increase in cases from schools being opened. They don't want the hospitals to become flooded again and not know what contributed to the new cases. So, remembering that schools cannot even RESUME until we have been off the watchlist for 14 days, we are talking likely 1-2 months from coming off the watchlist to simply reopening dine in restaurants and places like malls, movie theaters, salons, etc. THEN, if all goes well and cases still haven't spiked, maybe a month later, theme parks will get the green light, so most likely timeline for DL appears to be November 1 or later, and that is assuming we get off the watchlist within the next week.

Someone reported (here or elsewhere on social media), incidentally, that Disneyland management is currently targeting for a November reopening.

Can counties even open the statewide closures (bars, dine in restaurants, in door entertainment) even if they are off the watch list? Counties that have never been on and likely never will still have to have these closed.

I agree that November is the earliest likely target for openings. But still very optimistic.

 

[midnight star]

Look what is opening today!

 

[DLgal]

Can counties even open the statewide closures (bars, dine in restaurants, in door entertainment) even if they are off the watch list? Counties that have never been on and likely never will still have to have these closed.

I agree that November is the earliest likely target for openings. But still very optimistic.

No, they cannot independently make that call. That is what the Health Officer was referring to. They can't simply open those sectors at will once coming off the list. They have to get permission from the state and show proof that they have a safety plan and operating rules in place in a coordinated effort with business owners. This is why they established the "Safe Dine OC" program a few weeks ago (which several Downtown Disney restaurants are participating in, based on the signs they have posted claiming such). OC would like to reopen indoor dining as soon as they can, as it is one of the sectors taking a massive hit in our local economy.