Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[DLgal]

Yeah, SoCal and Central Valley are looking particularly bad. ICU capacity was around 20% for both regions on Thursday, then on Monday it was around 11% and 6% respectively. That's a pretty big change in 4 days, and no sign that things are getting any better. I don't see any chance of DL opening for the foreseeable future, it's probably going to be mainly dependent on the availability of the vaccine. On the plus side, the FDA released a report on the Pfizer vaccine which looks favorable, I expect it will be approved on 12/10.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...n-fda-immunization-safe-effective/3860002001/

I live in OC. There is a huge discrepancy between what our county is reporting for available ICU beds and what the state website is showing (our county numbers are better). No one can seem to answer this question. It is happening in several counties, apparently. Take the CDPH data with a grain of salt. Don't come to conclusions quite yet.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I live in OC. There is a huge discrepancy between what our county is reporting for available ICU beds and what the state website is showing (our county numbers are better). No one can seem to answer this question. It is happening in several counties, apparently. Take the CDPH data with a grain of salt. Don't come to conclusions quite yet.

I don't know if there are better sources of info, but this is from the OC Covid-19 Dashboard. At 13%, it's a little better than 11%, but the SoCal number includes other counties, so they could be dragging the regional number lower.



https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae

 

[Snap Crackle Pop]

I really don't understand what is happening. How are we seeing such a massive increase in all these numbers all of sudden? I have not seen drastic changes to how people are living their lives in the last couple months. My observations over the last 8 months have been consistent. We haven't opened any major sectors. What is going on?

I suspect that a lot of people have been gathering at home whether it be throwing parties, having weddings, etc. Some people are refusing to wear masks in OC as well, and also are going on vacations.

 

[DLgal]

I don't know if there are better sources of info, but this is from the OC Covid-19 Dashboard. At 13%, it's a little better than 11%, but the SoCal number includes other counties, so they could be dragging the regional number lower.

View attachment 542871

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae

The state page is reporting 6.7% ICU availability in OC. County reports 13%. The region is at 10.1%. Someone is fudging numbers.

Numerous counties have also added surge ICU capacity in recent days that isn't being reflected in the state data. It's kind of a mess.

 

[dina444444]

The state page is reporting 6.7% ICU availability in OC. County reports 13%. The region is at 10.1%. Someone is fudging numbers.

Numerous counties have also added surge ICU capacity in recent days that isn't being reflected in the state data. It's kind of a mess.

Is the county reporting total open beds or total open staffed beds. The state is focusing on staffed beds.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336421033314832386

 

[Epicnemesis]

I really don't understand what is happening. How are we seeing such a massive increase in all these numbers all of sudden? I have not seen drastic changes to how people are living their lives in the last couple months. My observations over the last 8 months have been consistent. We haven't opened any major sectors. What is going on?

My guess is a combination of:

• Cold weather
• Post election celebrations/protests
• Thanksgiving
• Other sicknesses being mislabel

To the last point, I heard flu is down 98% this winter. What are the chances! (Yes I understand we are taking preventative measures like mask wearing and distancing, but 98%?)

 

[LovesTimone]

Just saying the numbers are very skewed, and that's everywhere, in every state.
[mod edit]...

All in all - I really don't think that they have any true idea of what the real numbers are... anywhere...

[mod edit] ...

As always wishing everyone Peace, Love and Pixie dust...

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Stepping in with a quick reminder to everyone participating in this thread: Please keep the COVID discussion non-political and related to DLR and the parks' reopening. (Non-DLR virus and stats discussion should go in the main Community Board.) For those citing sources and posting links, thank you! That really does help those following this thread who live outside CA and outside the US.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

The state page is reporting 6.7% ICU availability in OC. County reports 13%. The region is at 10.1%. Someone is fudging numbers.

Numerous counties have also added surge ICU capacity in recent days that isn't being reflected in the state data. It's kind of a mess.

The OC Covid dashboard added this today. It looks like the "adjusted" capacity is 6.7% and the "unadjusted" is 13.2%, though unfortunately I can't find any source that explains the difference. But that would explain the discrepancy, it would be nice if they were a bit more clear as to how they get these calculations.




https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae
On the other hand, whatever calculation they are using, I think the trend of the capacity is still useful to look at, which isn't looking favorable. Southern California region down to 9% already from 10+ yesterday. The fact that surge capacity is included actually makes the numbers even scarier since it means that if they converted a post-op area to an ICU, that counts as "ICU bed capacity", even though it's really bad that hospitals have to resort to that.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/#icu-capacity

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Vaccine related re: Disneyland’s reopening.

Colorado released their vaccine timeline today with the general public over the age of 18 not receiving their first vaccine dose until summer, spring for high risk folks, winter for health care workers/nursing homes.

I imagine that will be similar to most states based on the availability we’re projected to have. So if a big chunk of the population isn’t getting it until the earliest in spring and the latest summer (no mention yet for CO when kids get it- I imagine after adults? in fall?) then woof... if Newsom is holding the vaccine as the must have for things to reopen for Disneyland we might be looking at a long, long road. Unless he sticks to the tiers when we get past this surge (when... or if?) and doesn’t bring vaccines into it at all?

I’m going to shoot for Disneyland xmas 2021 and do the ole WDW route again in summer I guess. I keep going back and forth with the awesome off-site hotel deals being offered in Anaheim but it’s hard to decide where to put your money if you’re planning. Disneyland, I miss you so! This just really sucks.

 

[midnight star]

Vaccine related re: Disneyland’s reopening.

Colorado released their vaccine timeline today with the general public over the age of 18 not receiving their first vaccine dose until summer, spring for high risk folks, winter for health care workers/nursing homes.

I imagine that will be similar to most states based on the availability we’re projected to have. So if a big chunk of the population isn’t getting it until the earliest in spring and the latest summer (no mention yet for CO when kids get it- I imagine after adults? in fall?) then woof... if Newsom is holding the vaccine as the must have for things to reopen for Disneyland we might be looking at a long, long road. Unless he sticks to the tiers when we get past this surge (when... or if?) and doesn’t bring vaccines into it at all?

I’m going to shoot for Disneyland xmas 2021 and do the ole WDW route again in summer I guess. I keep going back and forth with the awesome off-site hotel deals being offered in Anaheim but it’s hard to decide where to put your money if you’re planning. Disneyland, I miss you so! This just really sucks.

Maybe once we get past this winter surge, we'll hear more rumblings to open sectors that weren't opened before. California healthcare workers will start getting the vaccine this month and next. At least with healthcare workers being vaccinated, it can help ease the stress on the healthcare systems.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Vaccine related re: Disneyland’s reopening.

Colorado released their vaccine timeline today with the general public over the age of 18 not receiving their first vaccine dose until summer, spring for high risk folks, winter for health care workers/nursing homes.

I imagine that will be similar to most states based on the availability we’re projected to have. So if a big chunk of the population isn’t getting it until the earliest in spring and the latest summer (no mention yet for CO when kids get it- I imagine after adults? in fall?) then woof... if Newsom is holding the vaccine as the must have for things to reopen for Disneyland we might be looking at a long, long road. Unless he sticks to the tiers when we get past this surge (when... or if?) and doesn’t bring vaccines into it at all?

I’m going to shoot for Disneyland xmas 2021 and do the ole WDW route again in summer I guess. I keep going back and forth with the awesome off-site hotel deals being offered in Anaheim but it’s hard to decide where to put your money if you’re planning. Disneyland, I miss you so! This just really sucks.

I think aiming for December 2021 seems like a good idea, summer is possible but a bit more questionable.

In theory Newsom is not requiring vaccines to open DL, and he hasn't mentioned including it in his tier system (though it could change). It's the number of coronavirus cases and hospitial utilization that are most important. I expect he will continue to have some form of the same tier system we currently have. Of course, the vaccine is one of the main keys to keeping the virus in check. However, there might be a few reasons things could be more optimistic than we might expect. First, the number of cases doesn't have to be zero, just has to be "low enough" for DL to open. We don't know how many vaccines it will require to achieve that, but I don't think it will be like 100% of the population. Even just some people getting the vaccine will help the numbers somewhat. Additionally, there is some % of the population that has some immunity since they have already had Covid, so we're not starting from 0% technically. They say that the US should have 40 million doses (for 20 million people) by the end of the year, so that may help at least make a dent. Also, the Pfizer vaccine does have some efficacy even after the first shot, though it's only around 50% after 1 shot vs 95% with 2 shots, but again it's better than nothing, and maybe help the Covid numbers a bit faster. Finally, since high risk patients will be getting the vaccine earlier, you might expect hospitalizations and mortality to decrease disproportionally to the Covid infection rate (hopefully), which maybe will help things open up faster as well.

Take this with a grain of salt since this is all just personal speculation (it is the DL Reopening Speculation Thread after all, lol).

Regarding kids getting vaccines, that will not happen for a long time since it has not been tested in children, though Pfizer and Moderna report they are starting those trials now (though Pfizer is only 12 and up, so not sure what will happen with young children). I suspect it will not be approved for children tomorrow.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Official date for Virtual CHOC Walk 2021:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1335267831131336704

 

[AZMermaid]

In your “speculation” haha, do you think they’ll still do an in person walk in September? I’m going to book yet another ”back up” for. My mother/son trip and was looking at the weekend after Labor Day, but that was originally Choc Walk last year., which I know because that was the weekend for this trip originally!

 

[theluckyrabbit]

In your “speculation” haha, do you think they’ll still do an in person walk in September? I’m going to book yet another ”back up” for. My mother/son trip and was looking at the weekend after Labor Day, but that was originally Choc Walk last year., which I know because that was the weekend for this trip originally!

Doubtful. It takes a long time to plan the Walk and they just managed to name the date for this Virtual Walk yesterday. There was no 2020 Walk and it appears that the 2021 Walk will be virtual. There might be fundraisers of other kinds if "normal" returns to DLR, e.g. the dining fundraisers CHOC did in DTD, but I think the best bet for an in-person Walk would be sometime in 2022. (The 2020 Walk was supposed to be on 9/13, so maybe In September? But the year before that was August? I'm hoping for later in the year -- summer was brutal.)

 

[DLgal]

I think aiming for December 2021 seems like a good idea, summer is possible but a bit more questionable.

In theory Newsom is not requiring to open DL, and he hasn't mentioned including it in his tier system (though it could change). It's the number of coronavirus cases and hospitial utilization that are most important. I expect he will continue to have some form of the same tier system we currently have. Of course, the vaccine is one of the main keys to keeping the virus in check. However, there might be a few reasons things could be more optimistic than we might expect. First, the number of cases doesn't have to be zero, just has to be "low enough" for DL to open. We don't know how many vaccines it will require to achieve that, but I don't think it will be like 100% of the population. Even just some people getting the vaccine will help the numbers somewhat. Additionally, there is some % of the population that has some immunity since they have already had Covid, so we're not starting from 0% technically. They say that the US should have 40 million doses (for 20 million people) by the end of the year, so that may help at least make a dent. Also, the Pfizer vaccine does have some efficacy even after the first shot, though it's only around 50% after 1 shot vs 95% with 2 shots, but again it's better than nothing, and maybe help the Covid numbers a bit faster. Finally, since high risk patients will be getting the vaccine earlier, you might expect hospitalizations and mortality to decrease disproportionally to the Covid infection rate (hopefully), which maybe will help things open up faster as well.

Take this with a grain of salt since this is all just personal speculation (it is the DL Reopening Speculation Thread after all, lol).

Regarding kids getting vaccines, that will not happen for a long time since it has not been tested in children, though Pfizer and Moderna report they are starting those trials now (though Pfizer is only 12 and up, so not sure what will happen with young children). I suspect it will not be approved for children tomorrow.

What are you talking about? Newsom very clearly designated the Yellow Tier as the one where he will allow theme parks to open. This happened months ago. Yellow Tier is unachievable until almost everyone has been vaccinated. If this holds, Disneyland won't open at all in 2021 either. I don't think it will hold. There are numerous legal challenges to the tiered framework and judges are starting to one by one call the restrictions "abuses of power." We shall see how long it will last.

Regarding kids and vaccines, my son's allergist/immunologist is under the impression that kids will definitely be included to be vaccinated under the EUA. Obviously, we will find out today, but he seemed confident last Thursday when I asked about it. Although, my kids are 14 and 16, so maybe he thought I meant MY kids being able to get it.

 

[DizMe]

The OC Covid dashboard added this today. It looks like the "adjusted" capacity is 6.7% and the "unadjusted" is 13.2%, though unfortunately I can't find any source that explains the difference. But that would explain the discrepancy, it would be nice if they were a bit more clear as to how they get these calculations.


View attachment 542951

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae
On the other hand, whatever calculation they are using, I think the trend of the capacity is still useful to look at, which isn't looking favorable. Southern California region down to 9% already from 10+ yesterday. The fact that surge capacity is included actually makes the numbers even scarier since it means that if they converted a post-op area to an ICU, that counts as "ICU bed capacity", even though it's really bad that hospitals have to resort to that.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/#icu-capacity

If this is like our county, they have more beds available than the staffing to use them. I think the adjusted rate is the percentage of currently available beds that they have staff to cover.

 

[AZMermaid]

Well it’s Thursday! Keeping an eye on my 1/8 VGC reservation. As of now, it’s still there. I cant remember if they were cancelling 3 or 4 weeks out before.

 

[dina444444]

Well it’s Thursday! Keeping an eye on my 1/8 VGC reservation. As of now, it’s still there. I cant remember if they were cancelling 3 or 4 weeks out before.

My guess is they won’t make any decisions on the 1/8 VGC dates until we get closer to 12/28 when the regional order will first be up to be rescinded.