Plenty of land for a 3rd fate in DL it would be a little smaller than DCA.
Agree. Disney did purchase additional land in Anaheim which is earmarked for a 3rd park long-term. However that land is currently being used--and needed--for guest parking. The first domino to fall would be increasing the size of the current parking structure. Until we see movement on that project, there's really no sense hoping for the 3rd park.
There are only two ways this contract can end.
First, Universal stops using a Marvel character that it already has in place. As soon as it does that they can no longer use it.
I thought it was the other way around: All characters that US introduced at the contract's inception are theirs for the duration.
Regardless, it's pretty easy for them to maintain the current character presence.
Two, Universal does not follow the usage terms of a character to the letter. Then you could expect the Disney lawyers to do something. So there is a termination point.
Agree. Of course, Disney has to give them opportunity to correct any perceived mis-steps. And even if it goes to litigation, there's absolutely no guarantee that Disney would emerge victorious. The courts could simply rule that US needs to correct the infractions, spend more on maintenance, etc.
As to the licensing agreement itself, it's worth noting that the comic industry was in free-fall around 1999-2000 when this deal was reached. Sales had dropped from roughly $850 million per year around '93 / '94 to $200-250 million.
Marvel was an independent company at that time. They didn't have the backing of a huge parent like DC does with Warner Bros. And there was certainly no TWDC behind them.
To be able to lock-in a long term licensing deal with Universal for theme park rights was a huge coup. Marvel received a steady stream of income, guaranteed advertising dollars for its publications, media exposure via the Spider-Man appearances in US ads, guaranteed merchandise placement and revenue from that.
To Universal, the risk was the possibility that the comic industry would continue to shrink and these characters would become old news. 12 years ago NOBODY would have predicted that The Avengers would one day earn the largest 3-day box office totals ever.
Disney could eventually try to reclaim the rights but it takes two to tango. Universal could set whatever fee they wish--$250 mil, $500 mil--the sky is the limit. Unless Disney has something of similar value that Universal wants, it could be a very difficult negotiation with Universal holding all the cards.
One interesting solution could involve Disney trying to reclaim rights to The Avengers characters ONLY. The greatest presence at Marvel Island appears to be Spider-Man, X-Men and Fantastic Four. Change The Hulk coaster over to The Thing (or Silver Surfer, or something similar), eliminate the Capt America walk around and the transition is 90% complete.
But that is purely speculation and it all depends upon Disney's willingness, Universal's willingness and the demands each party would make of the other.