So this makes me pause on two accounts. First, how can there be a demonstrated "seasonal demand" to warrant such change when the resort isn't even open for occupancy yet. (How do we know more people won't be staying weekends, in 1bedrooms or using Grand Villas? Heck, how do we know there won't be a greater demand for Standard View rooms over Magic Kingdom View, or Lake View over all of them? There have been absolutely NO bookings yet.)
There may be some weight to that argument. However, as I posted a couple of pages ago, even getting a 1-2 year reprieve may not benefit BLT owners in the long run.
It appears DVC made very minor adjustments to BLT. The first charts were guesswork and the second set is also--apparently based upon trends at other resorts.
If BLT were to keep its 2009 chart through, say, 2011, there will be a wide disparity between weekend prices at BLT and all other resorts. BLT owners could save 15-20 points per night by moving from a BLT Lake View room to a BoardWalk View or AKL Savanna View. Not all would choose to make that move, but you better believe some would.
So for 2 years BLT would (theoretically) have an even lower weekend occupancy rate than what was used as the basis for this adjustment. And as soon as DVC had enough data to reallocate charts based upon actual history (2 years max), the weekdays would rise even higher than the published 2010 rates we see now.
I think that's a legitimate scenario that will play out if members are successful in getting DVC to push-back the 2010 BLT points for a couple of years.
Second, if the total number of points are not allowed to increase then why the blazes is my 2010
point chart out of balance with my 2009? Granted BLT hasn't seen as much a swing as SSR, but the increase is there.
There are always variances from year-to-year in total points due to when weekends fall. The Christmas Premier season runs from Christmas Eve until New Year's Eve (8 nights.) In 2009 those two days are both on weekdays, meaning that block of Premier has only two weekend nights. In 2010 they are both Fridays which brings the weekend total to three nights.
Other variations occur throughout years as seasonal change dates fall on weekdays vs. weekends.
The POS makes mention of using a "Base Year" to compute the
point charts. There is also mention of using expected booking patterns in counting lockoffs under either the two bedroom or Studio + 1B charts. Without knowing the exact structure of the Base Year and the lockoff ratio, it is going to be really tough to do any direct before/after comparisons.