Disney set to invest $17B in Florida parks, opening door for 5th theme park

[OKW Lover]

According to Reuters:



This says to me that the 5th park is a go. Why else would they commit to "at least $8b" in the next ten years?

To keep their options open

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

MK and AK projects are going to cost a lot of money on their own and they might have other projects planned. For reference, I know it's a different country but Fantasy Springs was a two billion dollar project. Galaxy's Edge cost one billion. Guardians was just a coaster build and that was 500 million.

Epic is costing 1 billion dollars. Seems to me, Disney needs someone else in charge of how to spend money and get good contracts and sourcing materials.

 

[DodgerGirl]

What I think could work for Disney is an aquarium and what this aquarium would be part of is a new theme park devoted to the wonders of the ocean and it would consist of four areas and one area could be devoted to animals like seals and sea lions and another area could feature sand dollars seashells and coral reefs and the biggest area would feature animals like whales and there would be dolphin shows too and of course the aquarium would be the centerpiece of the park and feature loads of fish and also theaters where you can see movies about different kinds of ocean life and then you would have character meet and greets with Moana Ariel and a Luca show and also a Finding Nemo ride and a Finding Dory show would be added to the park and Disney's Sea Kingdom "The park's name" would draw in lots of visitors and possibly steal Sea World's business if it were to exist

 

[bryaalre]

Epic is costing 1 billion dollars. Seems to me, Disney needs someone else in charge of how to spend money and get good contracts and sourcing materials.

Epic Universe is going to cost somewhere between $7B-$8B according to the Capex line on their financial reports. It is no where close to only $1B.

 

[Minnie1222]

What I think could work for Disney is an aquarium and what this aquarium would be part of is a new theme park devoted to the wonders of the ocean and it would consist of four areas and one area could be devoted to animals like seals and sea lions and another area could feature sand dollars seashells and coral reefs and the biggest area would feature animals like whales and there would be dolphin shows too and of course the aquarium would be the centerpiece of the park and feature loads of fish and also theaters where you can see movies about different kinds of ocean life and then you would have character meet and greets with Moana Ariel and a Luca show and also a Finding Nemo ride and a Finding Dory show would be added to the park and Disney's Sea Kingdom "The park's name" would draw in lots of visitors and possibly steal Sea World's business if it were to exist

A Luca ride would be great. No to live sea creatures. I'm against keeping animals in captivity.

 

[OKW Lover]

What I think could work for Disney is an aquarium and what this aquarium would be part of is a new theme park devoted to the wonders of the ocean and it would consist of four areas and one area could be devoted to animals like seals and sea lions and another area could feature sand dollars seashells and coral reefs and the biggest area would feature animals like whales and there would be dolphin shows too and of course the aquarium would be the centerpiece of the park and feature loads of fish and also theaters where you can see movies about different kinds of ocean life and then you would have character meet and greets with Moana Ariel and a Luca show and also a Finding Nemo ride and a Finding Dory show would be added to the park and Disney's Sea Kingdom "The park's name" would draw in lots of visitors and possibly steal Sea World's business if it were to exist

They could call it SeaWorld. oh wait...

 

[fatmanatee]

Epic is costing 1 billion dollars. Seems to me, Disney needs someone else in charge of how to spend money and get good contracts and sourcing materials.

More likely that some websites need to get better sourcing on their reporting and realize that it isn't feasible to build a theme park this advanced for just one billion. FWIW budget for Super Nintendo World in Osaka was initially 430 mil, according to an announcement made by Universal themselves. That was almost a decade ago and did not include the DK expansion. So it's likely that the Nintendo area alone for Orlando costs at least one billion dollars.

 

[etherealcaitiff]

More likely that some websites need to get better sourcing on their reporting and realize that it isn't feasible to build a theme park this advanced for just one billion. FWIW budget for Super Nintendo World in Osaka was initially 430 mil, according to an announcement made by Universal themselves. That was almost a decade ago and did not include the DK expansion. So it's likely that the Nintendo area alone for Orlando costs at least one billion dollars.

Attractions are cheaper the 2nd time you make them, because you've already paid for the R&D. That's why so many rides are just clones of others, or Frankenstein versions of existing things. It will be significantly cheaper to make Super Nintendo World for the 3rd time in Orlando than it took for the original or the California builds.

 

[clarker99]

If you think Epic will only cost $1b, I have a monorail to sell you.

 

[fatmanatee]

It will be significantly cheaper to make Super Nintendo World for the 3rd time in Orlando than it took for the original or the California builds.

Things in general aren't as cheap now as they were eight years ago and that should probably be accounted for if we're making guesses as to how much an entire theme park land will cost to build.

 

[Davey Jones II]

First of all, I'm so glad they settled that ridiculous, non-sensical "feud" that DeSantis provoked, just because he was flailing around looking for support for his presidential bid.

Second, this massive reinvestment is great news, and I don't understand the negativity on this thread. Would you prefer that they pour that money into their financial sinkhole of a streaming service?

If they build a fifth park, I think a clone of Tokyo DisneySea (maybe plussed, with somewhat more thrilling rides) would be a smash hit. They also should clone Shanghai Pirates and Mystic Manor.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Epic Universe is going to cost somewhere between $7B-$8B according to the Capex line on their financial reports. It is no where close to only $1B.

That makes a lot more sense. No one can build a (half decent) theme park for one billion, that's impossible.

Why do some posters make up numbers and present them as facts?

 

[fatmanatee]

That makes a lot more sense. No one can build a (half decent) theme park for one billion, that's impossible.

Why do some posters make up numbers and present them as facts?

I'm guessing it came from the first result when you google "epic universe construction cost". There are a few other results saying the same, some of them probably just cribbing the info from another, but it doesn't make much sense.

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

That makes a lot more sense. No one can build a (half decent) theme park for one billion, that's impossible.

Why do some posters make up numbers and present them as facts?

Not making up any numbers. Just reading what it is telling me on Yahoo Finance what the park costs. If that is a mistake on their end, that's their problem. Along with other sites when you google the cost

I didn't " make " anything up

 

[bryaalre]

That makes a lot more sense. No one can build a (half decent) theme park for one billion, that's impossible.

Why do some posters make up numbers and present them as facts?

Because you have second rate new outlets with stories like this: https://skift.com/2024/01/30/universal-orlando-previews-1-billion-epic-universe-theme-park/. These stories than get picked up by other outlets like Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-orlando-previews-1-billion-170448309.html and all of a sudden it looks legit.

A lot of other sites will than start to state the 1 Billion number and once people read it from multiple sources, there is no reason to research or believe they are wrong.

From Comcast themselves in regards to Epic Capex and where the 1B number most likely came from, Q4 2021, "Looking ahead to 2022, we expect Cable CapEx intensity to stay around 11% and NBCUniversal CapEx related to the construction of Epic Universe to be up around $1 billion."

However, that $1B was only the prediction for what the company was going to spend in 2022.

Q4 2022 earnings call talking about 2022 Parks Capex "NBCUniversal total capital spending increased $1.4 billion driven by Parks CapEx increasing $1.1 billion, of which Epic was around $800 million"

Q4 2023, "Content & Experiences' CapEx increased by $1.2 billion for the full year driven by Parks, with Epic accounting for the majority of the increase in spend. In 2024, we expect Parks' CapEx to remain elevated and then decrease in 2025 when we open Epic"

Comcast Parks Capex

2020 - 1.1B
2021 - 600M
2022 - 1.6B
2023 - They didn't break out Capex on their year end report

Someone else can go further down the rabbit hole and probably find more exact quotes to get better estimates but quickly perusing their year end statements and some conference calls I get the following estimates:

Prior to 2021 - Unknown but most likely not a whole ton, maybe a couple hundred million, as the pandemic shut things down and it was more preparations and planning than actual construction.
2021 - $200M-$300M - I could not find anything concrete about this year so we'll just say another couple hundred Million.
2022 - $1B-$1.2B, With Comcast stating that Epic Universe accounted for $800M of the $1.1B capex increase in 2022, we know the minimum is $800. There was obviously some Epic Universe capex done in 2021, so $1B feels like a good estimate.
2023 - $1.8B - $2.2B - With another $1.2B increase in capex and Epic accounting for the majority of it, another $800M-$1B increase would seem likely.
2024 - $1.6B-$1.8B - Obviously we don't have full year numbers for 2024 but in previous calls they have stated that 2023 and 2024 would be similar in capex costs. I decreased it slightly as those call also said 2023 would be peak costs.
2025 - $1B - $1.5B- A blind estimate as the only information they have stated is that 2025 would be a noticeable decrease.

This would lead the overall cost of Epic Universe (before any expansions) to be around $6.5B on the low end and maybe $7.5B on the higher end.

 

[bryaalre]

Not making up any numbers. Just reading what it is telling me on Yahoo Finance what the park costs. If that is a mistake on their end, that's their problem. Along with other sites when you google the cost

I didn't " make " anything up

You may not have made it up but it shouldn't take much thought to think the $1B number in the articles we're wrong.

 

[fatmanatee]

Because you have second rate new outlets with stories like this: https://skift.com/2024/01/30/universal-orlando-previews-1-billion-epic-universe-theme-park/. These stories than get picked up by other outlets like Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-orlando-previews-1-billion-170448309.html and all of a sudden it looks legit.

Now that I clicked the link it looks like the Skift story was licensed out directly to Yahoo, which is just gross in a different way.

 

[wkrainey]

I've said this a few times, Disney could spend 17Billion just on the 4 existing parks without ever needing to open a 5th. Between the 4 they have several expansion pads available and a lot of remodeling/rework that can happen to make the parks relevant.

 

[OKW Lover]

I've said this a few times, Disney could spend 17Billion just on the 4 existing parks without ever needing to open a 5th. Between the 4 they have several expansion pads available and a lot of remodeling/rework that can happen to make the parks relevant.

This makes sense. Why build an entirely new park with the required infrastructure when you can simply add on to your existing park?

Unless they decided to use the Wide World of Sports (AKA Wide Waste of Space) for a new park - that already has the infrastructure.

 

[Cfabar1]

I could be wrong, but I read this number, particularly over that timeframe, and that tells me a 5th park is not happening as a guarantee...

I think 8 billion dollars over 10 years is really not a lot of money for an operation like this - less than 1 billion a year, and Iger has made clear the first couple years will be well below that. Also, I am sure that they can work with this board, which is a bit more compliant, and rework things if and when they need to. Some of those later years investments are likely to be reworked into a new plan as business dictates for example...

Now, I do think this number means some reworking of AK and MK is a go, and perhaps some additional work at EPCOT, although with the recent special about the reinvention, I think that isn't super likely. Maybe MGM Studios gets some meaningful additions. Keep in mind there is likely a lot of double counting here - so something like the new DVC properties, which will in the end have a meaningful amount of that Capex returned to DIS likely count in those numbers, and they have also committed some monies to various affordable housing projects, etc. which will lower the number further.

Once again, could be totally off base... I think better path to profitability is 4 parks really done well with higher revenue in each park, at least for now... To me, MK is truly the only full day park, and EPCOT is a true "experience" that you can come to time and time again and experience a new restaurant, etc. it's about the feels, not about the rides.... the other two parks, there's not enough to do to spend a day. What we've seen from AK is really all about shifting capacity, not expanding it... Hopefully they do something with the PW site, and I guess an IJ clone might not be the end of the world, though I'd prefer they just restore Countdown to Extinction and maybe add a few new features to "plus up" the ride... Chester & Hester should be demolished as well....

Avatar has a future expansion pad, EPCOT has some vacant country space and a vacant 25 year old building in WS, let's maybe add on and flesh out these areas first... And, I'd argue New Fantasyland needs a lot of work too, and if they can go "beyond big thunder", that's fine with me.... A dream of mine would be an even more elaborate Kali river rapids, but I think that is unlikely....

Now, if the film division could start carrying its own weight....